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As of early Wednesday afternoon, there doesn't appear to be a strong wave advantage either way. Everyone is going to get the wind on Thursday and a mph here or there won't make a difference between waves.Friday, we'll see the wind dissipate, but the rain comes in. It doesn't look it will impact the AM guys on Friday as much as the PM and could mean the AM wave on Friday finishes round 2 as scheduled whereas the PM guys could get called off the course and have to finish on Saturday. All in all, we wouldn't stress too much about the wave stacking, but if you want to stack a small percentage of lineups, then we would lean the PM/AM wave in the event the rain delays things Friday afternoon.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

I figured I'd start with this heavyweight battle at the top to potentially help you make a decision between the 2. I guess you could roster both in DFS, but I wouldn't advise it. Webb is a huge favorite on both of our favorite market making books. I find it intriguing considering Hadwin's had a MUCH better season and has better recent finishes at John Deere.

Webb is projected to be around 27 to 30% and Hadwin around 23 to 25% across most ownership sites. Webb doesn't have a single top 10 finish in 2022, while Hadwin has 4 top 10s since The Players. 

I'd rather have Hadwin in DFS and I'd pound this + money line. It seems the books are giving way too much juice to Webb's long term form and fit.

McNealy -120 vs. Long -110

Here's another line where the market making books seemingly weighting LT form a ton. I was shocked to see Mav's ownership numbers today as he's projected around 16 or 17% where Long is around 15% and $900 cheaper than Mav. On another market making book however, Long is now the favorite at -120 VS Mav -102. However, that line opened with Mav as the -118 favorite over Long. 

I primarily show you this line and confuse the hell out of you with 2 books pricing Mav as the favorite, but 1 book now having Long the favorite as some handle came in on him yesterday just to troll.

But, I do think it speaks to Long's ability here and confidence among the sharp H2H bettors. McNealy has certainly struggled lately. I do think Mav is overall the better player and will be long term, but is he the better player on this course right now...? I'm not so sure. Given McNealy's surprisingly high ownership, I'll gladly fade another week.

Ghim -117 vs. Poston -107

This line caught my eye given Ghim's form versus JT nearly winning last week. Plus, JT is a putting machine and this tends to be a putting contest. JT's not nearly as high owned as I thought he would be based on projections around 14%. Ghim is coming in around 9 or 10%. 

I was starting to eyeball Ghim a little last night in some research and this line may solidify the play. That doesn't mean I'm off JT though. I'm still very much on.

Another interesting JT line has him the -121 favorite over Huh at -103. Huh's been hot and consistent (sounds like me) lately, and I've seen ownership projections for him between 15-17%. So the books would rank these 3 at Ghim, Poston, and Huh...I think it may have given me permission to fade 15%+ Huh and roll with Poston and Ghim.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.Well Rory ended up flaming out on the weekend as I predicted. I truly think Rory was mentally and physically too tired to have his best stuff for all 4 days last week. He still scored nicely, but he finished outside of the top 10 in DK Points scored and therefore didn't hurt you if you faded him.This week...ownership is weird and quite spread out. But I stand by my take earlier in the week with Webb Simpson. While Webb is clearly the class of this sorry field if you zoom out far enough. But, he's certainly not in the top 10 to 15% of this field in terms of short term form in 2022. He's battled injury and he's come back for sure, but we still haven't seen him fully back to his old self. And the difference between Webb's upside and floor isn't really that different compared to a handful of the guys in the $9 and $8K range. He also hasn't played the Deere since 2010. The reason why is likely scheduling related and due to rest between US Opens and Open Championships. But still...you would think Webb would see a track like this and know it benefits him compared to the average bomb & gouge track on the PGA TOUR. It's a tad puzzling.He's played in 10 events in 2022 and has recorded ZERO top 10 finishes! ZERO! As the highest priced player, even at $10.6K, you still need him to finish in the top 10 in terms of DK Scoring at that price and 25%+ ownership.Since the Masters, his ball striking is certainly trending in the right direction. However, the putter has been pretty cold, and he's going to need a hot putter to shoot -21+. Of his 10 events this year, he's lost strokes putting in 6 of them, including 6 of his last 8 events.

At +25% (highest) projected ownership, James Frederick Webb Simpson,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Why the hell do we have seeded grapes being sold to us on planet earth? I mean, what sane person sees the seeded grapes sitting next to the seedless grapes and thinks..."Yea, ya know what...I think I want to have to tongue bang a grape to get the seed out whilst I enjoy it and get my hands in my mouth or spit it everywhere." Just makes no sense. I think food trucks should drive around like Ice Cream trucks and blare out some music. It would also be funny to watch grown people running out of their houses like children all giddy about the food truck coming down the street. Welp...That's it. Pat's mailed it in for the John Deere with only 2 Pontificates, and I knew the email couldn't wait any longer. - DBAlright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the John Deere Classic this week in beautiful Silvis, Illinois. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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