John Deere 2022 Heavy Petting

Heavy Petting 🍑 John Deere 2022

June 28, 2022

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

***Note*** The DFS show this week was broken down by price range and published to YouTube. So, you can click the range you like or you can click all 4. The $6K thumbnail above takes you straight to something we did a little different this week to break down the $6K range. Let us know what you think. Check out the YT page for the rest of the ranges. 

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

  • The O/U for winning score this week is -20.5. It's been -20 or better 7 out of the last 11 years.

  • You better be ready to fire at pins, make a bunch of putts and not give up a bogey given the scoring at Deere Run.

  • The OWGR hasn't been better than 100th the last 4 years contested.

  • The last 4 winners have been 50/1, 90/1 or 300/1.

  • Of the last 3 winners (Glover, Frittelli, M. Kim), the best finish by any of them in the 3 tournaments leading up to their win was Glover's 37th place finish at Memorial

  • Spieth, Bryson, Frittelli, O'Hair, Harman, and M. Kim all got their 1st PGA TOUR victories at the JDC

  • The last 3 JDC's saw the cutline at -4 or -3 and the first round leader at -9 or -8.

  • Deere Run is one of the easiest courses to hit fairways and has averaged over 75% since 2015.  The fairways are wider than average and usually soft this time of year.

  • Deere Run sits in the top 20% most difficult if you miss the fairways. So they're wide, but the rough is sticky and the greens are small. Don't miss fairways.

  • Deere Run is also one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR in terms of GIR% with a 74%

  • This comes down to getting your ball in the fairway by all means necessary (I love SG: OTT this week), hitting your GIR's, and getting hot with the putter.

  • Don't be afraid of the variance!

  • DataGolf allows you to sort by Strokes Gained VS Expectation on a given course. I like it because it could indicate some lesser known names that just have a record of performing better than usual at a given course. Here are the top 10 (min 12rds) SG VS Expectation: Brown, Kizzire, Ryder, Martin, Laird, Landry, Stricker, Stroud, Werenski, V. Taylor

  • The bottom 10 (min 12rds) are: Todd, Poston, Points, N. Taylor, McGirt, Armour, Streb, Garnett, Baddeley, Huh

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's John Deere: 1. Villegas 2. Dufner 3. Glover 4. Ghim 5. Kizzire 6. Moore 7. Percy 8. Rodgers 9. Seiffert 10. Champ2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bent grass: 1. Todd 2. Bez 3. CH3 4. Baddeley 5. Snedeker 6. Wagner 7. McCarthy 8. Schenk 9. Bryan 10. Davis3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Riley 2. CH3 3. Huh 4. Simpson 5. Hadwin 6. Lahiri 7. Poston 8. Smalley 9. Laird 10. Glover4. On courses 7200-7400 yards, easy scoring & bent greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained: 1. ZJ 2. McNealy 3. Day 4. Glover 5. Lebioda 6. Simpson 7. Davis 8. Laird 9. Hadwin 10. Grillo5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, easy to hit fairways, & easy scoring: 1. Garrigus 2. Weekley 3. Streelman 4. Dufner 5. Hahn 6. Stroud 7. Lingmerth 8. Stricker 9. Duncan 10. Martin6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Riley 2. McNealy 3. Brown 4. Stallings 5. Simpson 6. Griffin 7. CH3 8. Hadwin 9. Malnati 10. Huh7. Top 10 in GIR's gained at Deere Run (min 8 rd): 1. Wagner 2. Reavie 3. ZJ 4. Glover 5. Laird 6. Duncan 7. CT Pan 8. Taylor 9. Percy 10. Villegas8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1.Jaeger 2. Long 3. Reavie 4. Weekley 5. CH3 6. Pendrith 7. Rodgers 8. Hodges 9. Simpson 10. Ryder9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 200+ & 125-150, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Glover 2. Hodges 3. Armour 4. Brown 5. Bramlett 6. Smotherman 7. Dufner 8. Grillo 9. Bryan 10. Novak10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. CH3 2. Long 3. Ghim 4. Pendrith 5. Poston 6. Hadwin 7. Smalley 8. Davis 9. Streelman 10. Lahiri

Missed on last week's Rd 1, but it's only our 2nd whiff in 7 weeks. Let's get back on the Bend Over Your Bookie Express, courtesy our friends at PrizePicks!Going a little light at the moment as PP only has Birdies and Score props out at the moment. The wind factor on Thursday is throwing things off a little bit for me with stead winds in the teens and gusts in the 20s all day. That being said, I like Chez and Poston shooting at least -2 given their momentum after last week and course fit at Deere Run. Lahiri has faded since The Players. His ball striking has left him, his putter always sucks, and he's not done well at Deere Run historically. In the afternoon wind, I'll bet on Lahiri falling short of 4 birdies.All we need is 2 of 3 to hit to make a little cash, but 3 of 3 is what we're pulling for. Let's go fam!

 2 Sleepers + 2 Guys to Fade After digging a little deeper into early ownership projections, DB dishing out 2 guys to consider pivoting to and 2 guys to consider avoiding in DFS GPPs. Should only take you 16 minutes to watch both. GET SOME! 

***Damnit! Steve Stricker WD'd right after this video was published. He was in my Sleeper video. I'd roll with Streelman as my Sleeper replacement with Stricker out***

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