John Deere

John Deere Classic (or Ryder Cup Talk)

The last week of the PGA all-star break is here with many of the top American pros and most of the top Euro pros playing in the Scottish Open this week. We're gonna have a TON of great research & original content next week that you literally can't find anywhere else with several unique studies that I've been working on. Since a lot of DFS players are taking the week off this week we can at least talk about something interesting in the lead in: Ryder Cup!Pat & Moose talked about the Ryder Cup standing on the pod this week which was honestly twice as interesting as the John Deere picks. I thought it would be fun to play the what-if game, & pick my own Ryder Cup team & see what the masses think (@TRUmav or @Tour_Junkies). Now obviously being a numbers guy I'm going to weigh team chemistry less than most captains. At the end of the day the four ball matches are all obviously important, but in singles the best players need to be on the team, & chemistry doesn't matter one bit when it's mono v mono. Here is a quick snap shot of the top 8 (so these guys are automatically on the team):

Qualifying actually ends one month from tomorrow, and the way the points systems work is that you get 1 point per $1k of tour earnings, & the points double for majors. I don't see the top 8 really changing.....Spieth, Fowler, DeChambeau could play poorly the next month & end up on the bubble, but they would all be likely Captains picks if they don't automatically qualify. NOW, if I'm in the Captains seat & Spieth misses the cut or just barely makes one of the cuts at the British & the PGA....I think you have to take a long hard look at leaving him off. Let me remind you of his recent form dating back to the end of April: MC, 41, 21, 32, MC, MC, 42.....that looks like a player card you would see from someone like CT Pan or Robert Garrigus (no offense guys!) Below are the bubble guys in their current standings: 

But lets assume the top 8 stays the same, who would we want to be the four captains picks?? I think Webb is a lock, he's played great all year, won the 5th major, and has Ryder Cup experience. Phil is probably a lock as well though his form has been slipping since Wells Fargo, but not nearly as bad as Spieth. So now we get down to the final two spots, and to me I'm currently only looking at four guys. Tony Finau is a lock if I'm the Captain, he hasn't broken through yet with a first (real) win but it seems like he plays his best golf when the lights are the brightest. Look up the word 'impressive' in the dictionary and you'll see a reference to Finau's Masters performance on a dislocated ankle. He'd be a perfect playing partner for a shorter hitter during best ball matches and would certainly be the favorite against a lot of the shorter hitters on the Euro team in singles. The other three vying for the final spot would be Kuchar (though I'm luke warm on him and I think he's more valuable as a 'clubhouse' guy/glue guy if the going gets tough early), Tiger Woods....I would think as long as he plays decent in one of the majors he's a lock, but if misses the cut at both??? Everyone, and I mean everyone, wants to see a Tiger fist pump Ryder Cup style, but if he's not even close to the 12th best American player, then we need to have a serious talk if we are in fact trying to win (Jim Furyk is praying to 6 pound 5 ounce baby Jesus that Tiger just plays well in the British & PGA). And my last guy that I would be considering right now.....UGA alum Russell Henley! He's one of the hotter players on tour right now, and the guy is just a stone cold killer. He won his very first PGA tour event he ever played in as a pro, 3 of his 6 wins have come via playoff, with one of those against none other than Rory Mcllroy. On the way outside looking in needing either a win or big time performance in a major: Harman, Schauffele, Walker, Holmes, Hossler, Cantlay....everyone else is dead to me. BTW the Euro team is going to have a lot of tough choices to make as well with guys like Thorbjorn Olesen, Russell Knox, Matthew Fitzpatrick, & Ross Fisher all in the top 11, but guys like Henrik Stenson, Sergio, Poulter, Kaymer, Colsaerts, Paul Casey, Thomas Pieters all outside the top 16. As we look at it today this is truly shaping up to be one of the greatest showdowns in Ryder Cup history (please make the team Tiger!)Current projected teams if I'm the Captain for both squads:

Euro:1. Hatton2. Rose3. Fleetwood4. Molinari5. Noren6. Rahm7. Rory8. Rafa9. Stenson10. Poulter11. Casey12. Sergio?USA:1. Koepka2. DJ3. Reed4. JT5. Bubba6. Fowler7. DeChambeau8. Simpson9. Phil10. Finau11. Tiger12. Spieth

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when we have a weak field with players that we aren't as familiar with. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie or Bookmaker to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week (FYI, lots of the matchups at the very top are pickem's which doesn't really tell us anything, so only going to highlight lines this week that 'surprise' me) : Patrick Rodgers is both more expensive and projected to be higher owned than Aaron Wise. Even more interesting is that Rodgers finished 2nd here last year, while Wise is coming off 4 straight missed cuts. BUT over the last 24 rounds, Patrick Rodgers ranks 84th in this doo doo brown field in strokes gained T2G, while Wise ranked 15th in the same period!I've owned exactly zero of Wes all season, but he certainly popped for me in my early week research. Another case of the cheaper, lower owned guy being the favorite in his head to head. Even in a terrible field Wesley Bryan still ranks 146th in the field in strokes gained off the tee, while the rest of his stats really look quite nice. Landry is the opposite ranking 15th in the field in ball striking but 90th in strokes gained around the greens. This is easily the most surprising line I came across this week. As you all know, I'm a big fan of the Chilean brace face, but to see him as a substantial dog to the #128 ranked putter in the field was really surprising. The recurring theme I keep seeing from the head to head lines is that putting isn't as important as the DFS community has made it out to be. At first glance this line surprised me because as far as strokes gained stats go they really aren't very different in the last 24 rounds. Maybe the last 12 rounds view was different? Nope, basically the exact same again. Cook has sandwiched two top 6 finishes in-between a missed cut his last three times out while Lingmerth has made his last 3 cuts with two top 20's. I don't know what the books are seeing, but they clearly like Cook.Chez is chalk this week but for good reason. He's a big favorite over Kevin Tway who played very well here last year & has 3 top 10 finishes his last 6 events. Chez is only $7500 but is 17th in strokes gained total his last 12 rounds while Tway is 76nd.The books don't give a shit about your course history, Molinari is clearly the best player in the field, but it's very interesting to see that the books value Ryan Moore as the 2nd best player in the field (at least Bookmaker does). 

THE Chalk Bomb

We got classic setup this week that we always look for:1. Highest price of the season, check2. Highest ownership of the season, check3. Unfavorable head to head price, check4. Volatile player (he's missed 5 of his last 11 cuts) check5. He's the 13th priced player yet is 84th in strokes gained tee to green in the field his last 24 rounds. Patrick Rodgers, your the chalk bomb!

The Only Fact You Need This Week

1. I'm saving a lot of the good facts for next week's major, but while I was on vacation last week I hung out with a family friend that played golf at Oklahoma St w/ Rickie, Morgan Hoffman, Peter Uihlein, Talor Gooch, and most importantly this week, Kevin Tway. He shared with me that Kevin Tway has a tattoo on his wrist that reads, 'Don't Be A Pussy.' and will sometimes look down at it right before he hits a big shot. If thats not the greatest tattoo for a pro golfer I don't know what is. 

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Birdie ($3), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar