The Houston Open 2024 Chalk 💣

As March comes to an end, so too does the Florida Swing as the TOUR heads to the Lone Star State and the windy conditions we’re used to out in Texas. The early forecast calls for a relatively calm opening round before the breezes pick up heading into the weekend. It looks like the PM/AM wave may dodge the worst of the wind on Friday, so be sure to consider the tee times when building out your lineups this week.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Kurt Kitayama -119 ($8100) vs. Doug Ghim -102 ($8200)

With no huge discrepancies at the top of the DFS price board, we start in the $8k range where Kurt Kitayama is a significant favorite over similarly-priced Doug Ghim.

Neither guy has played the Houston Open in any of the last three seasons, and the lone prior start between them came in 2020 when the event was held at the Golf Club of Houston.

Much like their similar price, both of these guys look to be owned at about the same rate in DFS. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, both players are right around 11% projected ownership.

Mackenzie Hughes -128 ($7800) vs. Billy Horschel +105 ($8300)

Sticking in the same price range, the sharp oddsmakers have Mackenzie Hughes as a heavy favorite in a 72-hole matchup over Billy Horschell despite a $500 discount in DraftKings DFS pricing.

This could be down to the Canadian’s significant experience advantage on this course. Hughes has featured in each of the three previous editions of the Houston Open held at Memorial Park, posting finishes of T7, T29 and T16. Horschel, on the other hand, will be making his first start at this venue and his first Houston Open appearance since 2017.

Despite the price difference, there’s not much of an ownership difference expected between these two with Hughes projected at just under 13% while Horschel is slightly less chalky at around 11%.

Adam Svensson -127 ($7100) vs. Cam Davis +104 ($7700)

Among the cheaper options, the sharps favor Adam Svensson in a 72-hole matchup against the more expensive Cam Davis.

With five starts at this venue between them, neither player lacks course experience headed into this week. That said, their memories of Memorial Park likely aren’t the fondest as the best finish between them is Adam Svensson’s T39 last time out.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, neither player is overly popular in DFS this week as both players are coming in under 6% owned. With that in mind, it might be worth tailing the sharps here with Svensson if you’re deciding between the two.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Man, I wish the Florida Swing could’ve gone on forever. The Sunshine State was a cruel host to the last few Chalk Bombs with a pair of missed cuts from Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris along with a T44 from Min Woo Lee over the last three events.

If you’re a newcomer to this newsletter, your DFS screens probably haven’t been too green over the last month or so — but fear not, we’ve got another big name to fade this week for the start of the two-event Texas Swing as we creep ever closer to Augusta and the year’s first major.

As a reminder, the Chalk Bomb is a gutsy call. To qualify, a player must be projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The whole idea is to pick a popular player who may not be worth the chalk and might just provide a good opportunity for a pivot play to a more sensible option.

So who will it be at the Texas Children’s Houston Open? The event returns to a familiar track but at an unfamiliar time of year. The municipal Memorial Park Golf Course is back as the host as it has been since 2020, but each of the previous Houston Opens hosted here took place in November rather than March.

Known as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR schedule, Memorial Park is a long par-70 that asks for length off the tee and accuracy with long irons as over a third of approach shots come from over 200 yards out — that’s a lot, especially when you remember there are only three par-5s.

But we start by looking at performance on these Overseed greens where our nerds at Bet the Number have identified an important putting stat as a strong indicator of success at Memorial Park. Of the 35 players to finish inside the top 10 in the three Houston Opens on this course, only nine gained fewer than .5 strokes putting for the week. Compare that to 20 for SG: ARG and 18 for SG: OTT, and it’s clear that a good putting week is almost necessary to contend at Memorial Park.

That’s bad news for this week’s Chalk Bomb who ranks 103rd in the field of 116 in SG: Putting on Overseeded greens over his last 24 rounds on the surface. And looking even further back, this player has never been a great performer on this green type. In 10 career starts on Overseed greens, the Chalk Bomb has just three top 25s and only one top-10 finish.

The numbers paint a better picture when it comes to his approach play, which shouldn’t be understated. This guy is striping it with the short and mid irons as he ranks 10th in the field in SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. But as we mentioned already, the long irons and woods are especially important at Memorial Park, and that’s where the Chalk Bomb is less accurate. This player ranks 50th in the field in SG: APP from 200+ yards out — a far cry from his impressive ranking of 9th from 125-185 yards.

This week’s Chalk Bomb also lacks experience at this venue which has me leaning toward other similarly-priced players near the top of the DFS shopping list. At $10,100 on DraftKings, this player is the only one priced higher than $8300 without a single start at Memorial Park.

I hate to pick against this guy AGAIN so soon after his Chalk Bomb selection at the PLAYERS, but it worked out for me then, and I have a feeling it will pay off this week as well.

Coming off that MC at Sawgrass and projected at over 19% ownership, I’m once again naming Will Zalatoris as this week’s Chalk Bomb!

Somewhere there are two robo-callers stuck in an insane infinite loop of trying to scam each other.

There are easter eggs out there that have never been found. And that makes me sad.

Think of all the weeds that got smoked before they found the right one.

I don’t understand why I need a 9 character password with upper case, lower case, special characters and numbers when all it takes is 4 digits to remove money from an ATM.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the Houston Open at Memorial Park. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!