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At this time, there is no real wave advantage. It does appear that the wind will pick up later in the day Friday but most of the golfers will be done by that point. The wind could pick up over the weekend, but no real weather to talk about for Thursday and Friday.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Alex Noren -131 ($8,700) vs Dean Burmester +101 ($7,600)

This is a little different strategy for me on these matchups because I usually stay within the same price range. However, this one completely stood out to me and I think is a very interesting DK strategy discussion. Who in their right mind wants to play Alex Noren at $8,700 when you can play a better course fit in Dean Burmester for over $1k cheaper. According to ownership, no one does.Burmester is coming in over 15% owned where Noren appears to be around 5%. Both of these golfers are very strong around the green which is going to be needed here so I can see the reason to play both and why Burmester is getting chalky.However, I think this is the ideal spot to fade the chalk in Burmester and allow for interesting leverage. These golfers have similar profiles outside of the driving distance of Burmester. On Noren, I love him on tougher tracks, and he also plays well in the wind which does appear to increase over the weekend. Noren is a heavy favorite against both Burmester and Theegala which just seems odd so I am going to trust Vegas on this one.

Denny McCarthy -126 ($9,200) vs Taylor Pendrith -104 ($8,500)

This line is similar to above where I am being a little contrarian and going up in price for a lower owned golfer. I don’t usually love playing McCarthy at this price range, but I do think he fits this course really nice outside of the driving distance. McCarthy is exceptional around the green and we all know how well he putts on Bermuda greens. I also think his driving accuracy and long iron play will make up for his lack of distance on this course. McCarthy has played this course the past two years with a T11 and a T38. In 2021, he gained 0.71 strokes with 0.51 being around the green. In 2022, he gained 1.96 strokes with 0.88 ARG and over 1 stroke putting.Pendrith really struggled here last year and he hasn’t looked that great this fall season with a T67 and T44 in his two events. Pendrith is also a dog in all of his three matchups which include Putnam, Dahmen, and McCarthy. With Pendrith being over 15% ownership and McCarthy being half of that I am willing to take the shot here. 

Wyndham Clark -137 ($7,900) vs Will Gordon +107 ($7,700)

I am going to go out on a limb here and say this will be the first missed cut for Will Gordon of the new season. Gordon played this tourney last year and finished T38 while losing 0.68 strokes around the green. I am very bullish on Gordon long term but I don’t love Gordon on this course. Clark is a heavy favorite against Gordon and another talked up player in Mackenzie Hughes this week.Gordon is a heavy dog to both Clark and Munoz. I like where Clark’s game is at right now with a T16 and T29 in his last two tourneys. If he is able to drive the ball accurately this week, I think he sets up really nice on this course. Clark has not had the best results here (MC and T41) but I think his game is in a much better place right now and with his ownership being around 7% I will easily fade the 15% Will Gordon here in favor of Clark.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Last week our Chalk Bomb email CRUSHED with our Hoge fade and our Matchup results. We talked about Scheffler, Harman and Sigg. Harman finished solo 2nd and Scheffler finished T3! Sigg scored a ton of DK points and was sitting in the top 20 going into Sunday before a +3 round took him to T42.

This week I think you could look at a lot of the chalkier plays and have a reason to fade them. I explained a few of them above in our matchups. This weeks chalk bomb gave me a little pause because it's a flop lag situation and he is one of the most talented golfers in this field. At the start of the week, I thought I was going to be heavy on this player but the more I dove into the stats, I think the other players around him are much better. 

On DataGolf, if you select tough scoring conditions, Bermuda grass, and over 7,400 this golfer ranks outside of the top 20 in all stats over the past 12 rounds. If you select over the past 24 rounds, he is inside the top 20 in only DK points. He's a good chipper, but his numbers chipping off bermuda are outside the top 50 in this field. He has played this course the past two years with a MC (on the number) and a T24. As stated earlier, he missed the cut last week and lost 0.17 total strokes. 

With all that said, the one part that did give me pause is that he is a favorite in all of his head to head matchups. He is a favorite against Matsuyama, Henley, Wise, and Burns which makes me nervous because you could make the argument to pick him over all 4 of those golfers. Also, I don’t necessarily see this golfer missing the cut but I don’t see him paying off his price and ownership this week.You're spending $10.4K on Tony Finau this week coming off what appeared to be just a vacation for his ninety-leven kids last week at Mayakoba. So, he's played 2 rounds since the President's Cup, he's the 3rd highest priced guy in the field, and he's projected over 17% at least.At 17+% (top 6 highest), Milton Pouha "Tony" Finau, you are the CHALK BOMB!

I think there are definitely some people in the world that think the moon actually changes shape every night. I think we have a real problem in this country with discipline and organization loading a dishwasher. People just throwing stuff in there without a care in the world. No one knows whether or not the utensils need to be facing up or down. Throwing plastic cups on the bottom shelf. It's just a mess and someone needs to take charge of teaching dishwasher protocol. Chestnuts roasting on an open fire...Jack Frost nipping at your nose...Who the hell roasts chestnuts. If you have to preheat an oven you're really just heating it. There's no actual preheating of the heat. The majority of printed books are probably read just once, if at all. That seems wasteful to me. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy Houston Open at Memorial Park. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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