A Full Field Event, 7 Days until the Masters

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

This is going to be a super weird week, all around. We've got our first full-field event in a month, it's super top-heavy with no real 'value' tier, it's the week before the Masters which throws several variables into the mix, we're on what is essentially a 1st-time course, and as of 12:15 am Wednesday, we will probably have no clue who won the election by the time your reading this! Because of many of these factors mentioned, we really don't have a ton to go off of this week since we have spotty recent form from the top guys, zero course history, zero course fit, and fairly poor offerings from DK. Quickly looking forward to next week, Team TJ is gonna try to get as much stuff out as early as possible so you have plenty of time to consume/tinker. I should be able to get the 20!!! Facts out 1st thing Monday morning, and I'll make my best effort to get the Chalk Bomb out Tuesday night. I (believe, though not confirmed) that the Pod will be live at some point Sunday night. 

For course fit this week, all we really have to go off of is it's gonna play a little over 7400 yards, will play as a par 70, has bermuda greens, was re-done by Tom Doak, pretty flat/parkland course, according to caddies the greens have decent slope & will be running pretty quick, rough is pretty thick but the fairways are generally wide, favors a right to left ball flight.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Finau vs. Henley

Finau -122 vs. Henley +105

Sadly it looks like the secret is finally out on my boy Russell Henley. At 1st glance, even I was surprised at just how close the H2H price was between these two, but it's hard to argue it's not fair! If you do a blind resume comparison between Henley & Finau, for pure ball striking, you certainly have to give the edge to Russ. Whatever change Russ made to his irons at the beginning of 2020, Pat needs this info!!!!! If you're a regular reader of the 10 Facts, you'll know that almost every week since the Honda he's been in the top 10 in the field for either opps gained or GIR's gained the last 12 rounds. Let me quickly rattle off his strokes gained approach numbers the last 12 events (+10.6, (-2.1), +8.2, +6, +1.6, +7.1, +3.2, +4.8, +1.8, +4.1, +3.4, +9.2)....that's 47.3 strokes gained in 12 events JUST on approach shots!!! As has been equally well documented in these 12 events, his putter has been super volatile, with a couple -5's to a plus 9 & everything in-between. Bermuda is far & away his best surface (it's Tony's worst surface). As we sit here today, & it's crazy to say this, but the only area I see a mild advantage for Finau is off the tee, & even that is gonna be a toss-up. 

Click the image above to sign up with Promo Code: "TOUR"& Join our Thrive Fantasy Freeroll

MATCHUP 2

Koepka vs. Hatton

Koepka +127 vs. Hatton -148

Just like the line above, the sticker price is kind of shocking, but it probably shouldn't be. Let's start with Brooks...the CJ Cup was our 1st glimpse of him since the Wyndham, and he was ok, not great. He hit his irons well, but there were 2 reoccurring themes that popped up at the CJ. The 1st being he struggled yet again with his driver accuracy, which would not surprise me if that is directly connected to his injury (dating back to August of 2019 he has exactly 1 event where he gained more than 3.4 strokes off the tee). The 2nd thing is that for the last calendar year, he's played exactly 1 event where he gained strokes both around the green & putting. For those of you old enough to remember 2016-2018...Brooks was a fairly elite putter, averaging about 1 stroke gained per event. But for the last calendar year, he's at a NET of -9.8 strokes putting, that's #bad. While I'm not terribly bullish on Hatton, his floor is sustainably higher than Brooks currently. He's been really steady, but not elite T2G gaining strokes off the tee & on approach shots in 6 of his last 7 events. 

MATCHUP 3

Im vs. Hovland

Im -106 vs. Hovland -110

Both of these guys are interesting because they are trying to recapture the elite form they both had at different periods of 2020. I think you could argue that Im has *mostly* recaptured his ball-striking form, having gained strokes off the tee & on approach shots in 5 straight events. The bugaboo has been an oddly poor short game, which he was generally elite in for most of 2018 & 2019. The good news is that bermuda is far & away his best putting surface, & he's also played better golf on both par 70's & longer courses. Hovland is $500 more expensive this week so certainly better DFS value on Im, but his short game has actually been trending in a *generally* much better direction. Since the PGA, he's gained strokes putting in 5 of 7 events...something he's never even come remotely close to doing in his young career. I also expect the course to play fairly easy this week, & Hovland has done most of his best work on easy courses. 

Other interesting lines:Norlander +102 vs. Schniederjans -118Burns -135 vs. Knkox +115Tringale -139 vs. Hoffman +119Hov -130 vs. Scott +112Spieth -108 vs. Davis -108Redman -104 vs. Conners -112 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• This is his 2nd highest DFS price of 2020

• He's a head to head pickem against someone $1300 cheaper on DK

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 92nd in the field in scrambling gained

• Bermuda is far & away his worst putting surface

• He loses strokes against his baseline on par 70's

• In 4 of his last 5 events, he's gained less than 3.8 strokes tee to green

• In 3 of his last 7 events, he's lost total strokes

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 75th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 119th in the field in fairways gained

At 16.9% Calculated Ownership on Fantasy National (3rd highest), Tony Finau, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I can’t stand when I’m driving and people think my truck’s high beam bright lights are on so they start flashing theirs at me like crazy in apparent anger (this behavior could also cause a seizure or something and is quite reckless if you ask me). My response to that is to then actually turn my bright lights on and leave them on to further piss off this person.

So now we are really into the meat of the fall season and the time has changed I have to say once again how stupid daylights savings time is. Whenever we figure out who the hell is gonna be our President can he please put that on the agenda to be abolished immediately? Thank you

Speaking of Fall. People always talk about how pretty the leaves can be and shit. I can’t stand leaves. They end up on the ground making your yard look like a mess and raking leaves is by far the worse type of yard work there is. F your pretty leaves.

In this episode of weird things Pat does. I’m a lefty, so everything I do I try and start it from the left side. For instance, if I’m choosing an item at the grocery store, even if it’s the same exact thing I will always choose the one on the left. Also salt always has to be to the left of pepper in my spice cabinet or on a restaurant table. I think it makes perfect sense to be like this.