Houston Open

THE Houston (not Shell) Open

Also known as the extended practice round tournament before the Masters. I don't know about yall, but this week is generally a crazy hectic week for me because I'm usually trying to cram two weeks of work into this week so I can be completely free to enjoy myself from Thursday-Sunday next week. Some people hate the fact that you can't take your phone into the Masters, but I really do love it. Things could be burning to the ground back home, but your able to be blissfully unaware as the only things that you have to worry about while your walking the course is domestic or import (clear or green), & not straying to far from a bathroom hut....which is the only place on planet Earth where the mens line takes 3 times as long as the womens line! Anywho, the Houston Open is a strange, oddly nice 'course fit' if you will. The data legitimately shows that bad players actually have a slightly better chance to play well here then at other venues. Why? I honestly have no idea....I suppose you could throw around the theories of the good players are just prepping for next week and/or just take the week off, but the honest answer is I just don't know why the data shows this.Distance certainly helps, it seems like for whatever reason, at 'most' distance courses, there is this magical wall at 295 yards that separates guys that have an advantage from guys that have a disadvantage. One thing I've seen a ton around the 'industry' is that 'bad putters' do well here...& the data does in fact back that up, but I'm always really, really hesitant to trust the connection when 'bad' stats are 'good.' The data certainly doesn't HAVE to make sense, hell you could argue that all course history data doesn't make sense, yet the connection is there. I've shot 73 twice in my life, my lowest round by 3 strokes....& it happened at the same course! Why? How? I honestly can't say....the course 'fits my eye', I putt better on bent, I drink less because I have to drive further back home....could literally be any of these things! But as far as leverage against the field this week, it's going to be great to have higher exposure to 'anti-fit' guys. Distance matters, it ALWAYS matters though...& par 5 scoring which is generally directly correlated to distance really doesn't test that well here. My favorite data to look at this week are total driving stats as well as GIR/approach stats, I think you'll find it will land you on some much lower owned players that might in fact be a better fit than the consensus course fit. 

How about this freakin guy? Goes from basically dead to a top 10 player again in like 2 months! Safe to say that whatever illness he had last year coupled with that stupid pink ball really did a number on his golf game. Hope everyone jumped on his Masters odds when team TJ was pounding the table at 55/1 right after the Genisis Open! Its still not to late though! You can signup for a mybookie.ag account right now to start laying your Masters bets down, & use Promo Code 'tourjunkies' for a 50% deposit bonus! We've got a UUUGE betting preview coming down next week & its really hard to bet if you don't have an account #BeLeDat 

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THE Chalk Bomb

Last year at this tournament I was winning the $3 Birdie GPP with 3 holes to play, & basically the only things I needed to happen to hold onto 1st was List needed to NOT birdie 18, & Berger just needed to par 18. I was probably a good 75% favorite to take it down, but good ole negative variance reared its ugly head, & the exact thing I needed to not happen, happened (List birdied, Berger goes from sand trap to sand trap to make double bogey). Anyways....I'm not bitter or anything....lets dive into this weeks bomb!So everyone still has Rory's redic putting from the API fresh on their minds right? Rory gained 10 strokes on the field putting alone two weeks ago which is crazy & unsustainable, which leads right into this weeks pick. Lets play a little, 'what if I told you' to see if I can change your mind on this guy. -What if I told you this weeks chalk bomb has gained 21.7!!!!!!!! strokes PUTTING just the last TWO times he has played this event.-What if I also told you that he has only gained 9.2 strokes Tee to Green TOTAL the last two times he has played this event!-What if I told you that last season, this guy didn't have one single tournament where he gained even HALF of the strokes putting that he gained at last years (Shell) Houston Open-What if I told you that the 2017 & 2016 Shell are the two highest strokes gained putting for ANY tournament he's played in the last two years-What if I told you that this is the HIGHEST DFS price he has had all season, & that his price has risen 2600! dollars from a mere 4 events ago....and he's not even in good form!-BTW, what if I told you he finished 7 spots out of last place in the WGC & basically finished the same at the MatchplayHe might find his magic pixie dust in Houston just like he has the last two years, but your just not playing the odds if your banking on this guy constantly having his best putting week of the season at one event every year. Its the perfect recipe for failure, high ownership, poor form, (way) higher price, course history is 75% from unsustainable hot putting. Russell Henley, your the chalk bomb! 

10 Facts you NEED so you don't spend 30 minutes arguing over Sam freakin Saunders

1. Top 10 guys that gained strokes T2G at last years Shell but lost strokes putting, in order of strokes gained T2G: 1. Glover 2. Bradley (they would be 1-2) 3. Garrigus 4. Wiesberger 5. Rose 6. Chappell 7. Palmer 8. Hoffman 9. Points 10. Hoffman2. Top 10 guys that gained strokes putting at last years Shell but lost strokes T2G, in order of strokes gained putting: 1. Cejika 2. Thompson 3. Blair 4. Loupe 5. Els 6. Gonzales 7. Levin 8. Wood 9. Horschel 10. Cabrera3. Top 10 guys in my favorite secret stat this week: 1. Han* 2. Grillo 3. Fowler 4. Mitchell 5. Conners 6. Stricker 7. Finau 8. Rafa 9. Sabbatini 10. CH34. Bottom 10 (relevant guys) in my favorite secret stat this week: 1. Loupe 2. Haas 3. Hoge 4. Kaymer 5. Tringale 6. Kim 7. Cauley 8. Hadley 9. Saunders 10. Berger5. Top 5 guys with sneaky (not the best, but sneaky) course history: 1. Piercy 2. Palmer 3. Tringale 4. Kim 5. Cauley6. Top bentgrass putters the last 50 rounds (I know it's not pure bent this week, but close enough) 1. Malnati 2. English 3. Snedeker 4. Gribble 5. Rafa 6. Poulter 7. Spieth 8. Curran 9. Choi 10. O'Hair7. Bottom bentgrass putters the last 50 rounds (relevant guys): 1. Palmer 2. Kokrak 3. List 4. Dufner 5. Keegan 6. Holmes 7. Vegas 8. Streelman 9. HV3 10. Kirk8. No shot link data from matchplay or the JV tourney last week...but ten big name guys that lost strokes T2G at the API: 1. Kisner 2. Hatton 3. Kizzire 4. Saunders cc:Pat 5. Snedeker 6. Piercy 7. Stallings 8. Harman 9. Glover 10. Schwartzel9. Top rated guys sub 7k for me this week: 1. Mahan 2. Huh 3. Watney 4. Harkins 5. Hoge10. Worst rated guys 8k & up for me this week: 1. Snedeker 2. Sharma 3. An 4. Kuch 5. Rafa

Thats it boys & girls!

Big big week next week so I'll be firing lightly this week, good luck & may your screens be green!