Houston 21 Chalk Bomb

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The wind forecast for Houston has been changing all day. As of 515pmET, this is the outlook, but Friday looked much different just a couple of hours ago. I see Thursday as playing pretty much equal between both waves, but Friday is the day that keeps changing. For now, the bigger gusts are certainly Friday morning, but we'd advise you keep checking the forecast until the last minute. We'll also be talking it up in the Nut Hut tonight. If you're playing maybe 20 lineups or more, we'd say to stack some with both waves and then have some mixed regardless of wave. All in all, it's going to be much windier than it was at this event last year. Saturday is also looking to be blustery as of now, so pay attention to that as much as possible when considering showdown and live bets. Your guys need to be able to hit it long, flight the ball, and scramble their ass off this week considering conditions. 

Niemann -140 vs. Wise +106

When the H2H's opened, Niemann was a favorite in only 2 of his 5 matchups. Currently, he's a favorite in 4 of 5 and only a dog to Tyrell Hatton (more on him later). So apparently, the people really jumped on the young, Chilean at dog money. He's also a favorite now over Wolff, Brooks and Adam Scott.

He's not falling under the radar in terms of DFS as he's currently projected around 15-17%, but Wise and Wolff are both projected higher, and Wolff costs you $900 more in salary. Niemann can hit it plenty long here, and can flight the ball down with the best of them.

As I mentioned on the podcast, his recent stats could be misleading as his last 8 rounds were w/out SG data, but include a 28th and a 5th.

The scariest thing to me is his game around the greens. We're hearing from the ground that there will be some horrendous chips this week as the ground is not in good condition around the greens. As long as he's pounding greens, he'll be fine. Wise on the other hand is shockingly, one of the best scramblers in this field on bermuda grass.

Koepka -126 vs. Wolff +108

I can't figure out why the books hate Wolff. He opened, and remains, a sizeable underdog in all 5 of his H2H's against Scott, Wise, Hatton, Niemann and our boy Koepka. He's only finished 17th, 2nd and 5th in his 3 starts since the new season started.

His length is tops in this field and a massive weapon at Memorial. And he's top 25 or 30 in the field in bermuda putting and chipping over the last 24 rounds rolling up to the most recent 4 rounds. I just don't get it.

He's projected to be the 3rd highest owned golfer at 18%, so clearly the DFS community is in favor of Wolff. And Brooks is only projected around 10% on the course he helped redesign with Tom Doak.

I guess from an ownership leverage standpoint, I could see the case for Koepka over Wolff in DFS. But, I would pound Wolff at a plus number against probably anyone in this field given his form and fit for Memorial Park.

Hatton vs. Everyone

I am shook at the Hatton love the books are throwing out! It's seriously making me stop and rethink my process this week. He's a favorite in every matchup (Wise, Koepka, Wolff, Scott, and Niemann). He opened as a slight dog to Wise, but the line has switched.

His DFS projected ownership is around 11%, so he offers quite the leverage and upside if the books are correct. He's a wonderful scrambler and solid putter. His irons have been pretty solid as well, but he's not a long hitter by any means.

Plus...his record on tougher tracks of late isn't anything to get fully erect about: US Open / MC, Open Champ / MC, Palmetto / T2, PGA Champ / T38, Masters / T18, The Players / MC, Masters 2020 / MC, US Open 2020 / MC, PGA 2020 / MC.

I just don't get the overwhelming love for Hatton here. I'd gladly take the plus money against him with Niemann, Wolff and Wise. 

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The Chalk Bomb has been more hit than miss so far this season, but the 2 misses were both runner ups...so...there's that. Here we go!Are you really telling me that just because Brooks Koepka had "input" on this Tom Doak redesign, that means he's gonna magically find the clubface with his irons in windy conditions this week at Memorial...? I say, "NAY!"We've seen Brooks play 6 times since his T6 at The Open (I guess the last event Brooks "cared about") back in July. He's gained strokes with his approach shots in 1 of those 6. ONE. Historically, his approach play is his 2nd greatest strength outside of his off the tee play and ability to turn it on (seemingly) whenever he feels like it.In 153 measured strokes gained tournaments, he's gained over a shot per round in mild conditions while basically being a flat 0 in windy AF (17mph or >) conditions according to Fantasy National.Sure, his best putting surface has always been bermuda, but his putter has been ice cold since The Open. He just seems a little off to me.Is he great when he gives a shit? Yes. He is. Could he turn it on in a heartbeat? Yes. He could. Will he do that for The Houston Open...? Just because he had some "input" and he's buddies with the owner of the Astros...? I'm not sure. And even if he finds a little something, will he be worth the price and ownership combo as the 8th highest priced player? The sportsbooks for the most part, have him as a H2H dog right now to Niemann, Wise and Hatton...all priced lower than Brooks with the exception of Hatton at $100 more.  At 17% (8th highest) projected ownership, Brooks Beefcake Koepka...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I find it somewhat unnerving that doctors call what they do “practice”. I mean, I practice golf (sometimes) but still am not very good at it. Anyway, I don’t want a doctor practicing on me that’s for sure.Here’s my grumpy thought of the week. Dedicated Christmas music only channels already being forced upon us on the radio is just infuriating. Christmas starts after Thanksgiving. Period. I’m not a scrooge either. It’s just too damn early to be throwing out all this Christmas stuff. The biggest form of peer pressure as a kid wasn’t drugs, alcohol, or cigarettes. It was during a test when it was completely silent and everyone turned to page 2 while you were still staring at the first damn question.Biting your tongue while eating is the worst. It also has me thinking it's a very good example of how you can completely F something up that you have decades of experiencing doing.It’s kind of funny to me how security at an airport is almost to the point of just being overly cautious and ridiculous. But when you get to the baggage terminal it’s just take whatever bag you want.When we first had cell phones it was kind of cool to have some new ringtone. Now if you don’t have it permanently on silent mode you’re just an annoying douche canoe.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Championship Classic Challenge Invitational Houston Open. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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