This Week's Tour Stop Honda Classic @ PGA National 

WaterWorld

It's a real shame that the Honda finds itself on the schedule where it does. With the Players getting moved up this is the only week a lot of the big guns get off for the month, thus producing a weaker field. It's especially a shame for us DFS players as PGA National is a great golf course with lots of crazy history. There are certain spots on the PGA calendar where I ramp up my exposure for the week, and this is always one of those spots. Most people 'know' about putting splits, but it always adds an extra edge when you've been on one surface (poa) for several weeks then switch to a different surface (bermuda). Other things that matter: it's a par 70, so the guys that feed on mostly par 5's have a lesser advantage & the guys that play par 4's well get a bump. Strokes gained ball striking is more important here than both scrambling or putting due to the difficulty (not to say you still can't putt your way to a top 10, it just makes it less likely). The GIR % here is 11% harder than on the average tour stop, making strokes gained approach even more important. The average driving distance here is 11 yards shorter than the 'average' tour event, which makes this a less than driver course (can go lots of angles here). The 150-200 yard approach shot is key this week with over half of your shots coming from that distance bucket. The course history crowd will also have a hard time this week if they're not paying attention. Several years your tee time basically decided your fate before you ever hit one ball, so many poor results were just a function of pure bad luck. Pay attention this week and the green screens should follow!

(Image & data again courtesy of DataGolf). As the guys that run DataGolf pointed out on twitter, the course 'fit' is basically: 'If your good at golf, you get penalized at PGA National.' Now you can interpret this several ways, but I'll give you my take & the most likely explanation. It's a really hard course; which will naturally lead to more randomness/variance in the results (ie anyone can win). The wind has been extremely gusty some years, and it looks like that will be the case again this year, which will again lead to more randomness/variance (ie anyone can win). There is water in play on 15 of 18 holes, guess what that does (see above). Taking a look back at last year, OF THE TOP 10 OWNED GUYS, ONE! finished in the top 15, and ZERO finished in the top 8. Go back another year, only 2 of the top 15 owned guys finished in the top 20 (though JT was one of those). Long story short, don't be afraid to fade literally ANYONE this week. Also below is a quick look at the wind as of 6pm Wed. I would give a very slight edge to guys playing late Thursday. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Ben An vs. EVR

Pretty nice value here on the ugliest man in golf, Ben An, as he's $200 cheaper than EVR yet the -145 H2H fav. As always, it boils down to the flatstick with BA, in his last 4 events he's lost a cool 20! strokes putting. In fairness Poa is his worst surface, so making the jump to bermuda *should* help. He's a great example of someone I like to load the boat on when he's low owned & completely fade when his ownership creeps above 15%. For EVR I'm honestly very confused about what to do with him. He was absolutely terrible at the Genesis (didn't gain strokes in anything), then last week he gained strokes across the board & absolutely hammered his GIR's. The DK value certainly isn't there, but if his ownership is less than 10% I'm more than happy to take a shot on last week's form. 

MATCHUP 2

Palmer vs. Poston

I picked this matchup because I was high on Palmer after finishing my 10 facts research, so to see him as an underdog to Poston made me take a closer look at him. In this entire field, guess who has the highest GIR hit % at PGA National (with a full 5 year sample to boot)? If you answered 'Ryan Palmer' you would be correct. Did you also know that bermuda is the only surface he gains strokes putting on? Or how about the fact that he gains almost a full stroke per round on the field in windy conditions? His recent form stats will be a bit off as well because he lost (8!) strokes around the green at the Genesis from his debacle at the 10th hole. Not to be outdone, Poston's best surface is also bermuda, has made the cut here both times, plays well on both difficult & windy conditions, & has gained strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events. 

MATCHUP 3

Billy Ho vs. Berger

I expect Billy Ho to be in the top 5 owned so I wanted to do a deeper dive on him to see what the numbers are telling us. His course history is Dr. Jekell & Mr. Hyde. In 16 & 17 when he had 2 top 8 finishes he was top 5 in the field in strokes gained tee to green, literally every other year he's been below field average in GIR hit % at PGA National. Bermuda is by far his best putting surface (though until his final round last year he had actually lost strokes at PGA National). His strokes gained also drops on both difficult courses and windy conditions. Last week he gained 6 strokes off the tee, before that he lost strokes off the tee the previous two events. Last week was also a high water mark for his strokes gained approach at 2.1. Both DB & I are Berger apologists so keep that mind. He does have the (when he's playing well) kind of statistical profile I love to target. He gains strokes in every category, and though he's rarely dominated in any one thing, that's the exact same profile the elite guys like Rahm, Bryson, & Xander have. Berger has also played extremely well in windy conditions, as he's 2nd in the field in total strokes gained with winds of 20 mph +. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.The weather this week will be a factor. However, at this point, it's tough to tell if it's truly going to impact one group of players over another (much less predict it). It's going to be breezy all week with sustained winds at 10mph as a minimum, but gusts in the upper 20s Thursday and Friday. There's not a drop of rain in the forecast, so the course will get firmer and faster as the week progresses. If you put a gun to my head and made me choose, I'd say the PM/AM has a very slight advantage with wind being calmer Thursday afternoon. But, I don't think it's enough at this point to change your entire player pool or go overboard.

Through 16 Weeks: Spent $800 / Won $1250 / Up 45 unitsOutright WinnerWestwood (60/1)_$8, Conners (66/1)_$8, Cauley (80/1)_$6, Gooch (90/1)_$5First Round LeaderHoge, HV3, and Gooch (all 80/1)_$5 each & Redman (125/1)_$4

Remember kids...the long shots can win. Refer back to Ben's opening statement here in this email about variability and also see Keith Mitchell and Padraig Harrington winning in the last 5 years. I went with 4 bombers that can score and go low for 1 round when it comes to my FRL bets. I believe all 4 of these guys have even led or come close to leading a first round already in 2020. I'm still huge on Westwood this week given his record here, incoming form, ball striking/wind play, etc. Conners is a top 5 iron player in the world (quote from a 20 year caddie). Cauley has a sneaky good record here and he's a southern boy that loves him some Bermuda. And finally, I just have a feeling on Gooch this week. He's a young, long hitting, scorer that we've seen get real hot for 36 or 54 holes. But, doesn't he feel a little like Keith Mitchell did last year...?

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy(s) this week: 

We're gonna have a unique Chalk Bomb this week, but hear me out:

• In 2019 at the Honda, of the top 5 owned players, ONE finished in the top 8, with the other 4 finishing 30th or worse

• In 2018 at the Honda, of the top 5 owned players, ONE finished inside the top 5, with the other 4 finishing no better than 29th & 2 missing the cut

• In 2017 at the Honda, of the top 5 owned players, ZERO finished inside the top 13 with 1 missing the cut

• In 2016 at the Honda, of the top 5 owned players, ZERO finished inside the top 25, with 3 missing the cut

• For those of you counting at home, out of the 20 highest owned players the last 4 years, 18 of them have finished outside the top 13 (or 90%)

At 17%, 17%, 16.3%, 16.3%, and 15.4% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (1st-5th highest in the field) Im, Ben An, Woodland, Horschel, and Berger, you're the Chalk Bomb(s)! With the winds whipping all day Thursday & Friday, only top 60 & ties getting through the cut, a difficult course, and weak field, it's the perfect storm utter carnage in getting 6 of 6 through the cut. 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Toilet Paper should ALWAYS be placed on the holder with the end on TOP and never underneath. No one will ever convince me it should be any different and if you even try I will basically just ignore you anyway.

I’m often pressed for time when pontificating thoughts (by DB of course), so sometimes it’s just not all that easy to bring the A game every week. I mean, despite the fact that I definitely have some weird shit that pops into my head, I still have a real job, kids, and a wife to tend to. That being said, here are a few random thoughts I recently read that I thought were interesting and made me laugh:

“When you drink alcohol you are just borrowing happiness from tomorrow”

“Go to bed, you’ll feel better in the morning” is the human version of “Did you turn it off and turn it back on again?”

“The Swiss must’ve been pretty confident in their chances of victory if they included a corkscrew in their army knife”

“The object of golf is to play the least amount of golf”

“Now that phones are becoming more and more waterproof, pretty soon it will be okay to push people into pools again”

Finally, and this one is specifically for Chalk Bomb Extraordinaire Ben…

“The person who would proof read Hitler’s speeches was literally a grammar Nazi”

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Honda Classic and be prepared for some carnage because we’re definitely gonna get it this week on PGA National.  Good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Honda:

1. Mitchell 2. K. Lee 3. Singh! 4. Kokrak 5. Ben An 6. Koepka 7. Fowler 8. ZJ 9. Woodland 10. Glover

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at PGA National (min 8 rounds): 

1.Palmer 2. Oost 3. Woodland 4. Steele 5. Westwood 6. Ben An 7. Fleetwood 8. Glover 9. Cink 10. Stanley

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1.McCarthy 2. Burns 3. Taylor 4. Poston 5. English 6. Clark 7. Fowler 8. Im 9. Koepka 10. Horschel

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult scoring, & par 70's your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Rose 2. Berger 3. Palmer 4. Fowler 5. Horschel 6. Poulter 7. English 8. Fleetwood 9. Cook 10. Schwartzel

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, difficult scoring, and at least moderately windy your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Kokrak 2. Rose 3. Palmer 4. Woodland 5. Schwartzel 6. Ben An 7. Stanley 8. Furyk 9. Dufner 10. List

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Conners 2. Furyk 3. HV3 4. English 5. Rodgers 6. Wise 7. Lowry 8. Streelman 9. Potter Jr. 10. Higgs

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at PGA National, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Koepka 2. Higgs 3. English 4. Hovland 5. Fleetwood 6. Horschel 7. EVR 8. Im 9. Tringale 10. Redman

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Henley 2. Grillo 3. Ben An 4. Hovland 5. Hoge 6. Kokrak 7. Koepka 8. Oost 9. Redman 10. Niemann

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. List 2. Schenk 3. Davis 4. Burns 5. Woodland 6. Mitchell 7. McNealy 8. Steele 9. Hovland 10. Bramlett

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Kokrak 2. English 3. Grillo 4. Cauley 5. Clark 6. Mitchell 7. Horschel 8. Knox 9. Berger 10. Benn An

If you've got kids that love golf or you'd like to START loving golf...you've got to get them watching the Junior Junkies series on our YouTube channel.