Honda Classic Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Honda Classic Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

February 27, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Honda Classic at PGA National 

Unique Honda Fit?

It's a real shame that the Honda finds itself on the schedule where it does. With the Players getting moved up this is the only week a lot of the big guns get off for the month, thus producing a weaker field. It's especially a shame for us DFS players as PGA National is a really specific course fit unlike a lot of other stops on tour (& doubly unfortunate that it's not going to be that windy). There are certain spots on the PGA calendar where I ramp up my exposure for the week, and this is always one of those spots. Most people 'know' about putting splits, but it always adds an extra edge when you've been on one surface (poa) for several weeks then switch to a different surface (bermuda). Other things that matter: it's a par 70, so the guys that feed on mostly par 5's have a lesser advantage & the guys that play par 4's well get a bump. Strokes gained ball striking is more important here than both scrambling or putting due to the difficulty (not to say you still can't putt your way to a top 10, it just makes it less likely). The GIR % here is 11% harder than on the average tour stop, making strokes gained approach even more important. The average driving distance here is 11 yards shorter than the 'average' tour event, which makes this a less than driver course (can go lots of angles here). The 150-200 yard approach shot is key this week with over half of your shots coming from that distance bucket. The course history crowd will also have a hard time this week if their not paying attention. Several years your tee time basically decided your fate before you ever hit one ball, so many poor results were just a function of pure bad luck. Paid attention this week and the green screens should follow!

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Piercy vs. Kokrak 

Really clear Draftkings value on this line. Kokrak is $800 cheaper than Piercy this week yet is expected to win this matchup 56% of the time. Both of these guys have been on incredible cuts made streaks, Piercy has made 9 in a row, Kokrak has made 13 in a row. No matter what time slice you use, Kokrak is in the top 5 in the field in proximity from the 150-200 yard bucket while Piercy is in the middle of the pack. While both guys are generally poor putters, both do their best work on bermuda by a fairly decent margin. 

MATCHUP 2

Smith vs. Berger

Berger has to be one of the oddest prices of the week and I'm still debating what to do with him. His HIGHEST price of 2019 (not counting the alt-field event) was $8200, and after finishing 2nd at the PRO he jumps up to $9400? Berger was def due for a little positive regression as his ball striking had actually been decent to start the year, but his short game was just a wreak. At the PRO his ball striking was ok, but was lights out in the short game (averaged 25 putts per round & got up & down 75% of the time, WELL above average). He's generally done all his best work on bermuda courses & could have easily won this event in 2015. Cam Smith is also interesting this week because he's playing the best golf of his career currently, BUT his ball striking numbers have been trending the wrong way and his stellar short game has kept him hovering around the top of leaderboards (did almost all his damage around the greens last week). 

MATCHUP 3

Garcia vs. Scott

One of the key decisions of the week, Sergio or AS, and it's a tough decision. For DFS purposes Sergio, on paper, is the value as he's $300 cheaper and is expected to win this matchup 57% of the time. These guys are 1-2 in my course history rankings this week, and are both projected to be fairly heavily (& evenly) owned. Sergio was fairly terrible last year, but something finally clicked starting with the Wyndham, from that event on he literally never hit LESS than 77% of his greens in reg until the Genesis, & even then he was 9th in the field in strokes gained approach. Not to be out done, Adam Scott leads the field in opportunities gained the last 24 rounds, and apparently now that you can leave the flag stick in, has gained strokes putting in (gasp) FOUR straight event! You'd have to go back to 2016 to be able to find another 4 event stretch where that happened. They are also both equally bad at putting on bermuda, as they both lose on average 0.3 strokes per event. 

MATCHUP 4

Grillo vs. Horschel

Another value spot as Grillo is $400 cheaper than Billy Ho but but they are a pick em in head to head markets. Billy is one of the cases I referenced in the opening about really digging into the course history. If you glance quickly you see two good finishes & a bunch of missed cuts, but he was on the wrong side of the draw almost every year except the 2 top 8 finishes. He a 'poor' wind player as his strokes gained drop off substantially as the conditions get worse. He also has one of the biggest putting splits between poa & bermuda (loses a quarter of a stroke on poa while gained a quarter of a stroke on bermuda). With the winds projected to be realitivly calm, I expect a good showing this week from the UF alum. Grillo is almost the opposite as he has negative splits on poa v bermuda, and his strokes gained go up the harder the conditions. Grillo has also been in quite the putting funk as he's lost over 4 strokes putting in 3 straight events. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be projected for a minimum of 18% owned on FanShareSports.com. The pickin's this week are slim as the ownership is projected to be fairly spread out with only 5 guys projected above the 18% threshold. Stats about our boy this week:

  • He has a negative putting split on poa vs. bermuda 

  • As you know I only look at the last 5 years when evaluating course history, these are his results: 24th, MC, 53rd, 44th, MC 

  • In the last 5 years of playing this event he's never gained more than 3.5 strokes tee to green

  • The last calendar year he gets up & down when missing a green 56.9% of the time, but the last 6 weeks he's gotten up & down 72.9% of the time......juuuuust a bit unsustainable

  • The key approach shot bucket is 150-200 yards, and this ranks 70th in the field in proximity from that range (83rd in 150-175, 57th in 175-200)

  • People will point to his strokes gained approach numbers the last 3 events, and then I will point out to you that he's 63rd in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds

  • Avoiding big numbers this week is key, and this guy is 126th in the field in bogey avoidance the last 12 rounds and 100th in the field the last 24 rounds

  • His best finish this year? 16th place

  • The last 4 events he's gained strokes in OTT, APP, & ARG....he's literally never done that before

  • His price this week is the most expensive he's ever been.......EVER

  • On less than driver courses he loses strokes against his baseline

  • On par 70's he loses strokes against his baseline

  • On courses where the greens are difficult to hit he loses strokes against his baseline

  • He's 55th in the field in par 4 scoring

  • This is projected to be his highest ownership by a factor of FIVE this week!

  • Most books have him at +200 for a top 20 finish, so the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 66.6%. 

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 20.7% this week....Michael Thompson, you're the Chalk Bomb!

Now is the perfect time to join! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Honda:

1.JT 2. CT Pan 3. List 4. Ben An 5. Scott 6. Piercy 7. Noren 8. Dufner 9. Huh 10. Glover

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at PGA National:

1. Knox 2. ZJ 3. Watney 4. Sergio 5. Scott 6. Armour 7. Saunders 8. Oosthy 9. Cink 10. Palmer

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Gay 2. Malnati 3. Fowler 4. Webb 5. McCarthy 6. McDowell 7. Thompson 8. Ollie 9. Schwartzel 10. Brown

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, difficult scoring, and par 70, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Woodland 2. Webb 3. JT 4. Scott 5. List 6. Steele 7. Garcia 8. Koepka 9. Berger 10. Furyk....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history (kind of hard for this event):

1. Webb 2. McDowell 3. Ben An 4. Steele 5. Watney 6. Cink 7. Palmer 8. Knox 9. Dufner 10. List

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from 150-200 yards last 50 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. ZJ 3. Gooch 4. Brown 5. Kokrak 6. Hoge 7. Horschel 8. Kizzire 9. Scott 10. Niemann

7.

Strokes gained putting leaders from last years Honda:

1. Chalmers 2. Webb 3. Noren 4. Burns 5. Lovemark 6. Grillo 7. Malnati 8. List 9. Kirk 10. Frittelli

8.

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking at PGA National:

1. Sergio 2. Scott 3. Fowler 4. Watney 5. Palmer 6. Henley 7. Knox 8. Glover 9. Woodland 10. JT

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Scott 2. JT 3. Glover 4. Berger 5. Woodland 6. Henley 7. Piercy 8. Harkins 9. Walker 10. Kraft

10.

Since we're back on a par 70, your top par 4 scorers are

 

: 1. JT 2. Webb 3. Fowler 4. Koepka 5. Niemann 6. Im 7. ZJ 8. Cam Smith 9. Barn Rat 10. CT Pan

WIN A

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