Boooo the PGA Schedulers

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's a real shame the Honda finds itself on the schedule where it does. With the Players getting moved up this is generally the only break before they get to Augusta, thus producing a weaker field. It's especially a shame for us DFS players as PGA National is a great golf course with lots of crazy history. There are certain spots on the PGA calendar where I ramp up my exposure for the week, and this is always one of those spots. As David & Pat mentioned on the pod, all 3 of us have had great success over the years at this tour stop. The breakdown: it's a par 70, so the guys that feed on mostly par 5's have a smaller advantage & the guys that play par 4's well get a bump. Strokes gained ball striking is more important here than both scrambling or putting due to the difficulty (not to say you still can't putt your way to a top 10, it just makes it less likely). The GIR % here is 11% harder than on the average tour stop, making strokes gained approach even more important. The average driving distance here is 11 yards shorter than the 'average' tour event, which makes this a less-than-driver course (can go lots of angles here). The 150-200 yard approach shot is key this week with over half of your shots coming from that distance bucket. The course history crowd will also have a hard time this week if they're not paying attention. Several years your tee time basically decided your fate before you ever hit one ball, so many poor results were just a function of bad luck.The wind has been extremely gusty some years, and it looks like that will be the case again this year, which will again lead to more randomness/variance (ie anyone can win). There is water in play on 15 of 18 holes, guess what that does (see above). Taking a look back at the last couple of years, 2020: The chalk faired pretty dang well, of the top 12 owned guys only 4 missed the cut, & the winner plus 3 other top 4 guys were highly owned. 2019: Of the top 10 owned guys, ONE! finished in the top 15, and ZERO finished in the top 8. 2018: only 2 of the top 15 owned guys finished in the top 20 (though JT was one of those). Long story short, don't be afraid to fade literally ANYONE this week.

It's going to be windy as usual in Palm Beach, it does look there's a slight wave advantage for the early/late crowd. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. At PGA National, strokes gained approach accounts for one of the highest variations in scoring of any course on tour. The bad news? According to DataGolf's course fit tool, literally, NOTHING is predictive of future performance at PGA National...INCLUDING strokes gained approach. Now, I can see a lot of confused faces out there, how can both of those things be true at the same time? The honest answer is we don't know exactly, but we can venture some good guesses. First, higher difficulty equals higher variance equals randomness. When you get extreme wave splits because of wind or weather (which happens quite often here) then just pure tee time luck can account for 2-4 strokes for the event.  Second, it's possible that the better approach players don't perform worse on approach, but just get themselves in trouble off the tee. Because this is a less than driver course, you also see lots of shorter players (a la Hughes, Donald, Duf etc) that generally lose strokes off the tee anyway, but on less than driver courses such as PGA National, they can make it up with quality approach shots. And thirdly, because the line is razor-thin on many holes for what makes a 'good' approach shot or a poor one (that will generally end up in the water), you can hit 16 great approach shots, & 2 mediocre ones that just get slightly unlucky & roll into the water, and just like that you lose strokes for the day.  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Lowry vs. Henley

Lowry -115 vs. Henley -101

Russ cut me deep last week, as most of his game turned into a pumpkin. During the last 52 weeks, he's basically been the best iron player on tour, but last week he lost almost 3 strokes in just 2 rounds, while also gaining exact zero strokes elsewhere. He does have elite course history though, having made 6 of 7 cuts at PGA National with a win. In all 7 tries, he's been above field average in GIR's hit, including his one missed cut. Mr. Lowry is $600 cheaper this week than the Russ Bus, yet the -115 favorite. I've admittedly played Lowry way too much the past 6 months, but his ball-striking has pretay pretay good since the restart. He finally put all 4 phases of his game together in one week at the Players, his 1st time doing that since he won the Open Championship. While he doesn't have elite history, he has made all 3 cuts here, and been above field average in GIR's hit his last 2 times. And again just to reiterate how good his ball-striking has been, the last 52 weeks he's played in 24 events, and been above field average in 21 of those, that's #good. 

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MATCHUP 2

Kirk vs. Davis

 Kirk -106 vs. Davis -110

Speaking of games turning back into a pumpkin...exhibit 1A is Cam Davis. Since the AmEx here is his strokes gained totals in order: 14.5, 4.6, 8.9, 0.4, (-2.2), (-4.2)...yikes. He's lost strokes off the tee in 3 straight (usually his strength), lost strokes on approach shots in 2 of his last 4, lost strokes around the green in 3 straight, & lost strokes putting in 3 straight. Cam has made both his cuts at PGA National but has been right around field average in GIR's hit. He's always going to rank high in DK scoring stats & birdie or better stats, but you've got to really hold your nose to fire him this week. Chris Kirk on the other hand is #trending. Since the start of 2021 he's gained at least 4.1 strokes tee to green in every event sans the Waste Management. Had it not been for a terrible putting weekend at the Players (lost 4.4 strokes), he easily flirts with the top 10. I like Kirk quite a bit in H2H markets with this matchup. 

MATCHUP 3

Im vs. Niemann

Im -126 vs. Niemann +108

Welp, I had an entirely different matchup written up between Im & Berger, but as you hopefully now know, Berger was kind enough to WD BEFORE his tee time. So here we are now, with 2 of the 3 highest-priced players will that both be MEGA chalk when lineups lock tomorrow. Between Im & Niemann, it would not surprise me to see them absorb over 55% ownership. So what to do? I don't think there's any debate they are the 2 most talented players in the field, with pre-tourney expectations to win somewhere between 5-6% of the time each. But when ownership pools like that on 2 guys, that are also highly-priced, it should not shock you that I recommend you build at minimum half of your lineups with neither player. For Im, he's made an incredible 18 of his last 19 cuts and arrives as the defending champ. But even during this run he's been on, the high finishes have been (mostly) eluding him. Since the Heritage last year (& even I was surprised by this), he has exactly 2 top 10 finishes. Since the start of the wrap-around season, he's mostly driven the ball at an elite level and in fact has gained an average of almost 4 strokes in his last 5 events. But that's where the questions start...the approach play has been VERY hit or miss. Since the Sony he lost at least 2.3 strokes with his irons in 4 of 7 events, he's lost strokes around the green in 5 of his last 6, and his current putting streak, while elite, is due for some major regression. In his last 24 rounds, he's gained an unreal 29 strokes putting. For his career he's gained on average about 0.25 strokes per round, so he's 4Xing that on his current streak. For Niemann, he's certainly a little more volatile in his results, with both a lower average floor & a higher average ceiling. He's gained strokes off the tee in every event in 2021, has gained strokes on approach in all sans 1, & the same for around the green. I think it's fair to say he's also improved his putting the last 8 months or so, as he's consistently gained strokes around 70% of the time. 

Other interesting lines:Im -182 vs. Lowry +154Niemann -144 vs. Henley +123Lowry -133 vs. Westwood +114Scott -126 vs. Steele +108Kirk -125 vs. Steele +107Bradley -112 vs. Fowler -104Long -110 vs. HV3 -106 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's in the slightly worse tee time draw

• Despite a weak field, he's still historically expensive (was sub 8k the last 3 weeks)

• He's been below field average in GIR's hit the last 4 events

• He's lost strokes tee to green his last 2 events

• Bermuda is his worst putting surface

• He loses strokes gained his baseline on par 70 courses

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 3 straight

• He's a head to head underdog in several of his matchups

• He's 37th in proximity in the main approach yardage

• He loses strokes against his baseline on difficult courses

• In at least moderately windy conditions he loses strokes against his baseline

• Over his last 3 events, he's 118th in the field in good drives gained

• Over his last 3 events, he's 95th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 3 events, he's 133rd in the field in bogeys avoided

At 15% calculated ownership % (& should only go up w/ Berger's WD) on Fantasy National (5th highest) Cam Davis, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Bathroom products that advertise anything with eucalyptus are basically like toiletry crack as far as I’m concerned. Your body wash has a cooling sensation? F yeh, I’m in. Cold fusion eucalyptus shaving cream you say? Say no more. Sold. 

Is there a ceiling fan on earth that works properly on the high setting without making a ton of noise and looking like it’s about to fall on top of you? 

Underrated snack. Ants on a log. 

It’s pollen season now here in Georgia. What if pollen wasn’t yellow? I think blue pollen would be cool.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the carnage PGA National will cause at The Honda Classic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!