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The weather for the week is going to be pretty optimal considering it's Florida and there's always a breeze. Temps will be higher than we've seen on the West Coast, and there's no rain coming to soften things up.However, if the current forecast holds, you could give a slight bump to the PM/AM guys in the event you're having to make a tiebreaker decision considering they'll get the lower gusts on both days if this holds. It's not a major benefit, but something to keep an eye on until lineup lock.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Chris Kirk -105 ($9,900) vs. Matt Kuchar -115 ($9,200)

Anytime I see a matchup with good 2-way line movement, it's always intriguing to do a bit more digging to try to figure out the WHY. This matchup opened up -110 boys ways but the sharpest books quickly saw Kirk take in a lot of money which brought his odds all the way up to -135. Since then, we have seen action come back in on Kuchar enough to flip the odds in his favor and make Kirk the underdog.Before missing the cut at WMPO, Kirk was on a tear finishes 3rd in back to back events at the Sony and Amex, classic Kirk-tease stuff. Kuchar on the other hand has been quietly putting some pieces of his game back together, culminating in a top 10 last week at Riviera.The substantially more expensive Kirk definitely has an advantage in terms of his course history around PGA National. Early projections are also appearing advantageous for Kirk in terms of having lower ownership, likely due to the significant jump in DFS price. That said, if you trust the most current form and line movement, Kuchar looks like a potential solid pivot that comes with $700 in DFS savings.

Ben Griffin -128 ($7,900) vs. Ben Taylor +108  ($7,200)

The sharps are in and have backed Ben Taylor as an underdog in Matchup #2. At +108, he is still the dog, but now at a much lower price than the +130 in which he opened up before catching steam. All indications are that the early bettors have this matchup much more even than the books anticipated.It felt like a career making run that Griffin was on to start his season off on the right foot with three consecutive finished 32nd of better. Neither player has any history at PGA National but if you look at their form over the last 36 rounds, Griffin has a big leg-up gaining over 1 stroke total per round while Taylor has been a modest +0.29.Using a head to head matchup simulator running 50 rounds, it comes out almost dead even. Griffin is projected to win this matchup only 51% of the time. If you can trust the simulator and the sharp dollars, you're likely to get a significant ownership break to go along with cheaper pricing on Ben Taylor.

Denny McCarthy -144 ($9,100) vs. Thomas Detry +120 ($9,000)

I have been gravitating to matchups with McCarthy for some time now but the current price seems like it could be a reach given how close these two players are in DFS. Denny opened the market with a much more reasonable number of -120, which would mirror the projected data golf odds in this matchup, before catching major steam which has lifted him to -144.It's likely that Denny ends up higher owned as well, but we don't believe it will be substantial. McCarthy has shown the ability to play well under difficult scoring conditions, with good finishes at the US Open, PGA Championship, and even last week at Riviera. He's best known for his putter, but interestingly, Detry has been the better putter over the last 36 rounds, gaining about +.3 strokes per round putting over Denny.I'm inclined to trust the sharp dollars and course history angle with Denny, but it's hard to deny the consistency in which Detry has been operating lately, finishing no worse than 37th in his last 4 PGA Tour starts.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Last week we struck gold by fading young Taylor Montgomery as the Chalk Bomb. Nothing like a high owned miss cut to get us back on the right track. It felt good to knock one out of the park. Hope you faded him as well!So let's start off with the golf course itself. The Champion Course at PGA National has water and land mines everywhere! It's damn near one of those weeks where you can throw most stats out of the window and just fade the popular players and narratives. Last year I remember Sungjae Im imploded everyone's lineup with an awful missed cut after great incoming form and tremendous course history.Since we are well aware of the randomness and outside variables that comes with playing at PGA National. My goal is trying to isolate a chalk bomb that checks two main boxes this week. The first, we are looking for a player who is currently struggling OTT with a miss. Water comes into play on 15 holes this week, mainly lining the fairways up one entire side.We're looking at a players most recent OTT numbers (last 24 rounds) in comparison to their long term baseline (last 100 rounds). Long term, this player has been a modest gainer in strokes OTT with positive numbers. More recently, in their last 6 events, they are averaging a loss of -2.4 Strokes OTT which is of course troubling at this specific course.In fact, their numbers in terms of strokes gained in the last 24 rounds are down across the board. This player is one of only 2 guys that is priced over $8,500 in draftkings that is negative in terms of SG: Total. Since the TOC, they have failed to have a single top 30 finish this season and have also missed the cut in 2 of their last 3 tournaments.Finally, this is the ultimate stop on Tour to take Course History and throw it in the trash. Given the early ownership projections for this player, it appears far too many people are giving this player a click based on his tournament history at PGA National. To be honest, it's not even that great, but he's talked pretty openly about how much he likes this event and didn't consider skipping it. Since 2018, his best finish here has been a T18.This course can frustrate the hell out of you. A couple bad shots here or there and you can blow up a decent round leading to an early exit of Friday off a missed cut. Given their recent struggles, I don't believe this player is carrying the form necessary to succeed here and will likely be easily triggered by trouble lurking everywhere at PGA National.Lastly, and importantly, nobody likes this F*cking guy.Go ahead and miss this cut, Billy Horschel, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

I feel like Pistachios are Mussels for Vegans.I wonder how many eggs in a carton are typically related.The most neglected part of a kitchen is probably beneath the sink where the actual cleaning supplies reside. Why is saying MotherF'er the only level to which I can get in the family tree? What if I want to say GrandMotherF'er! You know, if I'm really really mad. It's just ageist if you ask me. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Let's have some fun this week with carnage at PGA National. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!