Honda 22 Heavy Petting

Heavy Petting šŸ‘Honda 2022

February 22, 2022

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

  • The winning score O/U is set at -9.5. PGA National is one of the toughest courses on the PGA TOUR rotation especially given one of the lowest GIR% on Tour. The difficulty, in addition to the weak field means you can embrace the variance more than normal.

  • A few stats I (DB) looked at that I don't always consider for regular weeks are: Bogey Avoidance, a combo of Distance and Accuracy off the tee, SG:T2G on Difficult courses over the last 50 rounds, and putting on Southeastern grainy bermuda greens

  • The average driving distance at PGA National is around 276 yards. That's about 23 yards shorter than TPC Scottsdale for example, and it's the 5th shortest DD on Tour.

  • Of regular Tour venues, PGA National is 3rd highest in terms of penalty strokes, lowest in GIR% and in the top 20% in terms of Fairways hit...what does that tell you? It puts a big emphasis on Iron play and bogey avoidance ball strikers.

  • The greens at PGA National are on the larger side and feature typical Florida style grainy, bermuda grass. Consider narrowing down your bermuda putting stats to the likes of Harbour Town, Innisbrook, and Sawgrass.

  • DataGolf ranks SG Metrics VS a player's expectation based on course fit. It's interesting because it can reveal cheaper/long shot players that tend to level up at a certain course. Here are the Top 10 for PGA National (Min 12 rds): Hagy, Pan, Herman, Sungjae, Wise, Donald, M.Thompson, Huh, Watney, Jones

  • The bottom 10 would be (Min 12 rds): Barnrat, Kung, Oosthuizen, Kaymer, Swafford, Stenson, Koepka, Rodgers, Noren, Stanley

  • Even the guys with the most SG:Total at PGA National over the last 5 years have terrible showings thrown in (back to the high variance soapbox). Glover, Sungjae, and Fowler all in the top 5, but have 3 MC's, a T51, & a T65 among them to go with 2 wins and 3 other top 10s.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Honda: 1. Jones 2. Streb 3. Higgs 4. Ryder 5. ZJ 6. Hagy 7. Huh 8. Cink 9. Straka 10. Schwartzel

2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bermuda grass: 1. Todd 2. Moore 3. Bez 4. ZJ 5. Oosthuizen 6. Harman 7. Reed 8. Poulter 9. Niemann 10. Whaley

3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Niemann 2. Mitchell 3. Palmer 4. Kirk 5. Im 6. Knox 7. Berger 8. Thompson 9. Villegas 10. Jones

4. On courses that are less than 7200 yards, difficult scoring & bermuda greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. Im 2. Watney 3. Donald 4. Fleetwood 5. Noren 6. McCarthy 7. Westwood 8. Steele 9. CH3 10. Knox

5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses less than 7200 yards, fast greens, & difficult scoring: 1. Fleetwood 2. Wise 3. Streelman 4. Watney 5. Palmer 6. Stanley 7. Glover 8. NeSmith 9. Im 10. CH3

6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Young 2. Wise 3. Hughes 4. Mitchell 5. Ryder 6. Lebioda 7. Swafford 8. Koepka 9. Lowry 10. Wolff

7. Historical GIR's gained @ PGA National (min 8 rds): 1. Woodland 2. Knox 3. Cink 4. Straka 5. Westwood 6. Watney 7. Palmer 8. Ryder 9. Hagy 10. Fleetwood

8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Knox 2. Vegas 3. Harman 4. Pendrith 5. Oosthuizen 6. Im 7. Hodges 8. Mullinax 9. Glover 10. Redman

9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, your top 10 in proximity: 1. NeSmith 2. Redman 3. Ghim 4. Kaymer 5. Im 6. Niemann 7. Knox 8. Straka 9. Steele 10. Ryder

10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Berger 2. Lee 3. CH3 4. Kirk 5. Hughes 6. Moore 7. Rodgers 8. Vegas 9. Im 10. Whaley

Details on "The Road to Augusta" contest by PrizePicks

Reply

or to participate.