Honda 22 Chalk Bomb

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While wind does look to be a factor this week at PGA National, it doesn't appear to be concentrated enough or severe enough to change our approach in terms of betting and DFS.The PM wave on Thursday may see slightly lower gusts, but the consistent winds are the same for both Thursday and Friday.We're already hearing from the ground that PGA National's greens are already fairly firm. I'd imagine they get more firm as the week progresses. It may be tilting for the Friday PM guys somewhat that are on the cut line trying to save pars. Be prepared for Honda variance people! You've been warned. 

Horschel -101 vs. Niemann -133

Ol' Billy Ho finds himself a big underdog against last week's Chliean Champion, yet he's projected at more than double the ownership of young Joaquin. Could it be the fact that Billy prides himself as damn near the Co Governor of the state of Florida, or that people just tend to avoid the guy that won last week? That strategy certainly didn't pay off when it came to young, Scottie Scheffler as he finished 7th after his victory in Scottsdale.

There is a MAJOR concern with Billy Ho in my mind this week, and it's his horrid iron play. I think approach play is the far and away most critical piece to success at PGA National given the water hazards and dangers that lurk around these greens. Sure, a lot of GIR's are missed this week and Billy's a good scrambler. But, Billy's lost 12.5 strokes on approach in his 4 starts so far in 2021. While he's making cuts and has 2 recent top 11 finishes...he's done it all with the putter. Fun fact: considering he's the poster boy for putting grainy, bermuda surfaces in Florida...he's only gained 1 stroke or more putting at PGA National ONE TIME in NINE attempts. His record here is 66% shitty and a third pretty good thanks to two outlier years with his irons and then in 2019 when he gained NINE strokes PUTTING!

I'd much rather take Niemann on all fronts, and especially in DFS given his upside, current ball striking form, and ownership leverage.

More on Billy Ho later...

Vegas -167 vs. Mito +124

Boy oh boy! Have the books never heard of the Mito Horny Gawd!? What is going on here! Listen, I love J-Honny V this week as documented on the podcast, but even I was shocked at this line's spread. 

Our beloved Mito opened at this number to Vegas, he also opened and remains a dog to Harman, and a coin flip to Ryan Palmer on our most trusted book, but remains a dog to Palmer on FanDuel Sportsbook!

He's projected at higher ownership (around 15%) than every one of those guys. He's coming off his best finish since September with a 15th last week, and that's all it took to get all the DFS Touts slobbin his knob in the public square again.

Mito came out firing last year after earning the heralded "Battlefield Exemption" out of the Korn Ferry Tour. He had three top 6 finishes in his first seven PGA TOUR starts. Remember though...those fields belonged to the Barbasol, 3M Open, and the Fortinet...Not exactly a bunch of world beaters.

Listen, I like Mito. I do. Hell, he's on my betting card. I think he's talented. He's obviously got high upside potential. And a guy that wins 3x in one season on the KFT is obviously a gamer. But being a clear underdog to 3 guys that are cheaper in DFS and lower owned may be all the reason we need to fade him in DFS for this highly variable event.

Rai -161 vs. Higgs +118

I wanted to toss in a scrub line this week in hopes of helping folks find a solid cheaper play with upside. Aaron Rai is my "Pop the Cork" play this week (shout out FGS). Rai opened and remains a significant favorite over everyone's favorite Higgs, Straka, and Cink. 

At $7.4K on DraftKings and 100/1 to win outright, Rai has been rather consistent as one making the transition from DP World Tour to full time PGA TOUR. He's recorded 4 top 20's in his last 9 events with a T6 at The Farmers where he was in the hunt on Sunday for a spell. 

I also like that Rai finished 19th at The Open in July, and he's cut his professional golf teeth on difficult, sometimes blustery conditions we tend to find more on the DP World Tour than we do stateside. PGA National certainly doesn't resemble the courses in Europe hosting The Open, but it's difficult...windy...and more challenging than the run of the mill PGA TOUR track.

Rai is a highly accurate driver of the ball with average distance. However, he's a very strong mid to long iron player his 20 or so measured events on the PGA TOUR in his career. 

I'm not seeing Rai anywhere above 7 or 8% in terms of ownership projections, and I quite like his upside in DFS. It seems the books and H2H bettors would agree.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

After Collin Morikawa had the 2nd best putting week of his PGA TOUR career and his best BY A DAMN COUNTRY MILE SG:ATG + SG:Putting performance (gained 9 strokes between the 2), the Chalk Bomb has sucked the last 2 weeks. Oh well...this is a free email, so screw you!Anyway, I made quite the case already for Billy Ho in the H2H section against Niemann, so I won't make this too lengthy. Sure, he's making cuts and loves Florida. That isn't the most compelling argument you could make for him doing well here.He also ranks 124th in the field in SG:APP over the last 24 rounds! That's a critical metric when it comes to attempting to project future performance. I mentioned his record at PGA National and the massive SG:APP he's seen in the past leading to success plus 1 absurd putting week gaining nearly 10 strokes. It just seems a chalky Billy Ho is a textbook fade for a tournament like the Honda Classic. I feel quite well about our odds of getting the Chalk Bomb performance back where it was prior to the last 2 weeks. Anything outside of say the top 20 or so for Billy at his ownership + price would be considered a solid fade in my book. At 22% (Top 3 highest) projected ownership, William John Horschel...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

When I travel thru big cities one thing that always stands out is all the damn road work. I wonder if there’s ever been a single point in the history of vehicles and roads on this planet that absolutely zero road work was being done in a big city. I mean none. Like not even a pothole being repaired.Does anybody NOT like to take a glass of water to bed? I’d like to know these people.I don’t know why but whenever I put a Lunchable in my kids’ school lunch I feel this overwhelming since of guilt. Also, my grocery store has a supply limit on Lunchables. I know what they’re doing damnit. They are telling me I’m lazy and to make my child a damn ham and cheese sandwich.Why do people watch big foot shows and why are their so many of them? Spoiler: The idiots hunting for him will not find him.What’s wrong with people that lay on the horn behind you the minute the light turns green. I mean F man, let me ease off this line at my own pace you jerk.Someone I know is on jury duty for a murder trial. Today they said to me that they had to fart so bad most of the day they couldn’t even concentrate. So, let me get this straight, this person is on trial for murder and jurors are more preoccupied with not letting a little poo air out. Lesson: Give people fart breaks, someone's fate may depend on it. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the pure carnage we will probably get for the Honda Classic. It should be Great Fantastic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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