Honda 2023 HP

HP 🍑 for The Honda Classic

February 21, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.After an absolutely insane couple of weeks which culminated in the crowning of new World #1 Jon Rahm at Riviera, the PGA Tour stars needed a breather! You best believe we don't! While many are quick to throw shots and take aim at the field for the 2023 Honda Classic, a quick perusal of the odds boards and you will notice these are many of our guys. We believe that weeks like this present opportunity. Everyone has been complaining about the top of the odds board hitting and Rahm steamrolling every event, well friends, we have now arrived back in LongShotSZN in Palm Beach Gardens.This will be the last year that Honda, the longest running PGA Tour title event sponsor is running the event. They were dealt a terrible hand by the PGA Tour and have had enough. Rest assured though, PGA National is not going anywhere. There have already been several step up in the bidding talks and the Bear Trap is here to stay. Before diving into the field of hungry up and coming players, here are some important notes from years past on the Honda Classic:

  • Since 2010, the average odds price of the winner has been 129-1! We have seen 6 winners in that span begin the tournament with odds higher than 80-1. Harrington won in 2015 and was 400-1.

  • The Champion Course at PGA National is normally a Par 72 that is turned into a par 70 for this event. Only 2 par 5's #3 and #18.

  • 15 holes on the course have water! This course has had the most water balls 3 consecutive years.

  • Fairways and greens are very firm and fast. The key is getting the ball in play and not making costly mistakes that result in double bogey.

  • Avg. Driving Distance is sub 280 yards which is one of the shortest annually due to many players clubbing down to avoid trouble and prioritizing fairways.

  • The greens at PGA National are on the larger side and feature typical Florida style grainy, bermuda grass. Consider narrowing down your bermuda putting stats to the likes of Harbour Town, Innisbrook, and Sawgrass.

  • Historically this event is won and lost with approach play, as nearly 40% of all strokes gained came via Approach which is well above the average PGA Tour Tournament.

  • You can make big numbers...and fast. There is alittle to no advantage we have seen from a course history standpoint this week. If you just a bit off, big numbers are lurking everywhere.

  • PGA National is the most difficult non-major regular PGA Tour event of the season every year, averaging over 1.5 strokes over par per round.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the Champion Course:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at PGA National : Donald, Herman, Chalmers, English, Schenk, Lowry, Dufner, Stroud

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at PGA National : Gomez, Kang, Malnati, Holmes, Streb, Stanley, Hadley, Z Johnson

Draftkings Optimal Lineup this week per DataGolf:

Im, Vegas, Meronk, Buckley, Bramlett, Wu

2 DFS Sleepers for The Honda Classic 2023

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 10 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders from last years Honda in the field this week: 1. Lower  2. Donald  3. Lowry  4. Horschel  5. Noren  6. Tarren  7. Pendrith  8. Wu  9. Stuard  10. Svensson2. Weighted Strokes Gained T2G in Last 30 Rounds: 1. Vegas  2. Im  3. Kuchar  4. Bramlett  5. Rai  6. O'Hair  7. Meronk  8. Woo Lee  9. Kirk  10. Jaeger3. Blend of Driving Distance (25%) x Driving Accuracy (75%) over last 36 rounds:  1. Lowry  2. Im  3. Buckley  4. Suh  5. Rai  6. Blixt  7. Bez  8. Echavarria  9. Johnson  10. Straka4. Leaders in Total SG Adjustment for Course Fit at PGA National via DataGolf: 1. Matthews  2. Byrd  3. Collet  4. Brehm  5. Werbylo  6. Holmes  7. Thompson  8. Harrington  9. Cone  10. Chalmers5. Top 10 in SG: Putting at the Honda Classic Last 24 rounds : 1. McCarthy  2. English  3. Trainer  4. Wu  5. O'Hair  6. Stuard  7. Noren  8. Redman  9. Hadley  10. Gay6. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained last 36 rounds in the field this week: 1. Lowry  2. Hoffman  3. Riley  4. Griffin  5. Schmid  6. Kodaira  7. Hardy  8. Yuan  9. Knox  10. Davis7. Top 10 Bogey Avoidance Last 36 Rounds: 1. Detry  2. Griffin  3. Kuchar  4. Im  5. Baddeley  6. Wise  7. Percy  8. Noren  9. Byrd  10. Hodges8. Top 10 Players in highest approach shot distribution bucket (150-175): .1 Redman  2. Moore  3. Armour  4. Im  5. Gribble  6. Roy  7. Yuan  8. Shelton  9. Lee  10. Hubbard9.  Top 10 in Fantasy points gained in last 24 rounds on Bermuda Grass Greens:  1. Griffin  2. Rodgers  3. Im  4. Detry  5. Van Rooyen  6. Noren  7. Taylor  8. Davis  9. Kuchar  10. Gordon10. Top 10 in Rankings on courses with difficult scoring conditions last 36 rounds: 1. Alexander  2. Griffin  3. Kuchar  4. Simpson  5. Lowry  6. Im  7. Barnes  8. Wallace  9. Palmer  10. SH Kim

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