Heritage HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Heritage

April 11, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.Let's be honest friends, THE RBC Heritage has a tall task this week following up that incredible Masters. It had been since 2019, but The Masters absolutely DELIVERED the good this year. That said, we're onto Harbour Town! An interesting, well known, respected golf tournament that has been awarded elevated field status this week with all the big names headed to Hilton Head.We could actually be in store for a great week for DFS and betting. The combination of potentially exhausted bettors and a clear repeatable history in terms of what leads to success should provide an advantage for those willing to dig through the dirt! Here are our top things to keep in mind when starting your research this week for Harbour Town:

  • DataGolf has Harbour Town as the 17th most predictive course on Tour.

  • Harbour Town has one of the lowest average driving distance numbers on the PGA TOUR since 2015. Being long helps as you can possibly carry some of the trouble on certain holes, and you can certainly have shorter clubs as you club down off the tee.

  • Ball strikers dominate here, particularly those have have their mid iron play dialed in.

  • Harbour Town also boasts one of the lowest GIR% averages on the PGA TOUR since 2015. Greens will be missed. It's not hard to get up and down unless you miss in the water or a handful of these weird Pete Dye bunkers. But this puts an even greater emphasis on incoming iron form.

  • Top 10 curated Strokes gained T2G Leaders from Augusta in the field this week: Rahm, Scheffler, Cantlay, Schauffele, Lowry, Matsuyama, Spieth, Hovland, Finau, Im.

  • DataGolf has Driving Distance at Harbour Town as one of the least impactful stats correlated to success on the PGA Tour schedule.

  • The last 5 years, the winning outright betting price has averaged 121-1 and we have seen 3 winners at 125-1 of higher.

  • Now, the elevated field status certainly changes this, but helps us understand how this is a course where everyone can compete, even those deficient in distance.

  • All of the par 3s are lengthy even by TOUR standards. 190 to 200+ on all of them. Again...mid to long iron prowess will be essential .

  • Harbour Town is about artistry and not brute strength. Sooooo many player quotes through the years cite working the ball both ways, working it high, low, etc. Mentions of requiring a lot of thought around the place based on run outs, hazards, and angles into the greens. Set your lineups, look over your betting tickets...and make sure you've got some guys in there that can "paint pictures" on the course.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Harbour Town:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Harbour Town:

Bryan, Cantlay, Landry, Donald, Lowry, Pan, Kuchar, Kizzire

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at Harbour Town:

Reavie, Hughes, Laird, Stallings, Taylor, Hahn, Thomas, Johnson

DataGolf Draftkings Optimal Lineup:Scheffler, Im, Henley, Kuchar, Si Woo, Hadwin

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1. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders from last 24 Rounds at Harbour Town Links : 1. Simpson  2. List  3. Grillo  4. NeSmith  5. Cink  6. Morikawa  7. Dufner  8. Cantlay  9. Furyk  10. Rose2. Rounds Gained % Leaders at Harbour Town (min of 12 rounds played) : 1. Dahmen  2. McCarthy  3. Kuchar  4. Donald  5. Lowry  6. Harman  7. Long  8. Clark  9. Kizzire  10. Hatton3. Strokes Gained Ballstriking Leaders over last 24 rounds on courses under 7200 yards :  1. Conners  2. Henley  3. Lowry  4. Thomas  5. Finau  6. List  7. Rahm  8. Morikawa  9. Kirk  10. Bradley4. Leaders in Par 4 scoring for all Par 4's that are under 450 yards: 1. Tom Kim  2. Rahm  3. Bhatia  4. Scheffler  5. Moore  6. Young  7. Schauffele  8. Piercy  9. Hatton  10. Martin5. Proximity Leaders from 175-200 yards over last 50 rounds played : 1. Si Woo  2. Pendrith  3. Reavie  4. Kodaira  5. Finau  6. Rahm  7. Pan  8. Morikawa  9. Martin  10. Mullinax6. Scrambling Leaders for the 2023 Season in the field this week : 1. McNealy  2. Putnam  3. Montgomery  4. Hughes  5. Willett  6. Griffin  7. Todd  8. Ryder  9. Kuchar  10. Homa7. Greens in regulation percentage Leaders over the last 36 rounds played: 1. Scheffler  2. Rahm  3. Finau  4. Rai  5. Woodland  6. Cantlay  7. Morikawa  8. Smalley  9. Duncan  10. Fowler8. Recent Strokes Gained T2G Leaders over the last 4 Tournaments adjusted to field strength : 1. Scheffler  2. Cantlay  3. Hovland  4. Rahm  5. Morikawa  6. Kuchar  7. Hatton  8. Young  9. Spieth  10. Rai9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Scheffler  2. Henley  3. Cantlay  4. Im  5. Kuchar  6. Si Woo  7. Kirk  8. Hatton  9. Spaun  10. McCarthy10. Top 10 in Fairways Hit over the last 36 Rounds played: 1. Henley  2. Kodaira  3. Morikawa  4. Tom Kim   5. Todd  6. Dahmen  7. Long  8. Reavie  9. Moore  10. Harman

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