This Week's Tour Stop RBC Heritage @ Harbour Town 

The Low Country

Week 1 of almost 75 straight weeks of golf is in the books! Predictably there was utter carnage in the DFS world with most contest only averaging in the 5% range of lineups that got 6 of 6 through the cut. Though it would be tough to replicate that again this week, I still strongly believe that if you feel confident about a player that the market doesn't agree with, go with it & don't let anyone talk you off them! A lot of the same interesting dynamics from last week will apply this week again: Of the top 10 players, only Bryson, X, & Webb have played here more than once in the last 5 years, most of the field played last week with only about 10 relevant exceptions so recent form will again be a wild card but we can at least give it *some* weight, and funny enough the closest course fit to Harbour Town is......Colonial! 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. So this looks familiar huh? Well it should! When we look at the similar courses tab, Colonial is far & away the #1 closest fit to Harbour Town. Both last week & this week are probably the two courses where bombers have the most difficult time taking advantage of their length (as always it still matters, just to a lesser degree). At Harbour Town it's simply more difficult to 'ball strike' your way to victory without gaining plenty of strokes both around the green & putting. In fact, since 2015, only 11! players have finished in the top 10 and not gained AT LEAST 2 strokes putting for the week. Speaking of which, I would take an extra close look at guys that hit the ball well last week but just didn't have the flat stick working (esp since we're going from bent to pure bermuda), I've made a list for your reading pleasure below.  

Leh Go!

List of players from last week that gained less than 2 strokes putting for the week but finished in the top 40:

T3. DeChambeau

T10. JTT14. AncerT19. HV3 (lost strokes)T19. DahmenT23. Glover (lost strokes)T23. Hovland (lost strokes)T29. CauleyT29. Kisner (lost strokes)T32. McIIroy (lost strokes)T38. Horschel (lost strokes)T38. Burgoon (lost strokes)T38. Duncan

MATCHUP 1

Rahm vs. Morikawa

Rahm -130 vs. Morikawa +110

I've been trying to think of who will be the 'forgotten man' this week, and I'd be willing to bet it's Mr. Jonny Rahm. Think about the 3 guys priced on either side of him: Rory played great for 2 days & poorly for 2, but still made the cut & is much cheaper than last week, JT played great last week & the ball striker narrative will be strong, Bryson lead the field in strokes gained T2G at Colonial & has good history here...just under him, Xander could have easily won last week, Morikawa should have won, & Im has gained strokes across the board in 3 straight events now. Rahm was the only one of those guys that missed the cut, but lets take a closer look. Berger & Morikawa hit 77% & 72% of there greens in reg last week, where was Rahm at in his two rounds? 75%. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach, & around the greens, but had his worst strokes gained putting event dating back to August of 2018. While he has a slight negative bermuda putting split, he still gains 0.3 strokes per round which puts him in the top 30 in the field. For Mr. Morikawa, what else can you say about the kids ball striking, just absolutely unreal. His last 5 events he's gained AT LEAST 6.3 strokes on approach shots in 4 of them, and has gained strokes off the tee in 12 straight events. BUT his Achilles heel (so far* only 24 rounds) has been putting on bermuda where he currently would rank 142nd in the field. Add in that he gained 5.1 strokes in the short game last week (career high to date) I think there is enough reason to expect some mean reversion at Harbour Town. 

MATCHUP 2

Im vs. Simpson

Im +105 vs. Simpson -125

Last week we endorsed the Webb fade because the head to head markets were making him a pickem or underdog to guys at his price or slightly cheaper. Fresh off the trunk slam I'm sure a lot of folks hoped he would go over looked this week, but with an $800 price discount from a week ago it looks like everyone is ready to pile back on. As we sit here on Tuesday night, Webb & Im are both projected to be the 2 highest owned players in the field according to Fantasy National.  Webb certainly has the course history here (though he had good history last week too) he's 7 for 7 in made cuts, plays well on Pete Dye courses, and is one of the best bermuda putters in the field. Last week Webb lost 2.9 strokes putting on Colonials bent grass, so one would certainly expect that to bounce back this week. Im is equally interesting because he played here last year, and one could argue that it was the 2 worst rounds he played all year shooting over par, and losing strokes on approach, around the green, and putting (sample size rules apply here, it is just 2 rounds after all). For Im's 3rd event in a row (dating back to the Honda win) he's gained strokes in every single category. He gained 3.1 strokes putting last week, & now heads to bermuda which he has an even better split on. At the end of the day, it's hard to make the case that Im doesn't have a higher floor, and as we sit here today, a higher ceiling than Webb. I'll take the plus money all day in the betting markets. 

MATCHUP 3

Woodland vs. Matsuyama

Woodland -115 vs. Matsuyama -105

Probably the most surprising line of the week as Woodland, who is $1100 cheaper on DK than Hideki, is the head to head favorite. I wanted to dig a little deeper on these guys since I suspect that both will be popular (especially Gary). Since the start of the 2020 PGA season, did you know that Gary has gained strokes putting in 5 of 6 events? I sure didn't. He oddly lost strokes off the tee last week, but I'm assuming that since he hit 62.5% of his fairways (same as Berger) that he was laying back & hitting a lot of irons (which was smart since he gained 8.8 strokes on approach shots). Gary still sucks around the greens as he's lost strokes there in every event, but he hits such a high percentage of greens that he generally limits the damage to around a stroke. Hideki is similar yet different in a lot of the same ways as Gary. He almost always gains several strokes off the tee & on approach, but unlike Gary, Hideki actually has an elite around the green game. In fact over the last 50 rounds, Hideki would rank 4th in the field in strokes gained around the greens. Unfortunately though, Hideki is the same terrible putter he's always been, he lost strokes in 6 of his last 7 events, and bermuda is far & away his worst surface. So what to do? I think it's pretty simple, play Gary in DFS, & take the even money on Hideki for betting. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.How about that 70/1 Berger hit last week fam! You're welcome. Now, up 65 units since the start of the new season. On to this week, full disclosure...I'm at the beach this week on vacation, so this is going to be a shorter write up, but I feel just as well prepared for the week as ever. As of this afternoon, there will be a morning edge tomorrow for First Round Leader bets as the wind is expected to pick up a good bit for the PM wave. I feel pretty confident your FRL(s) will come from that AM group. 

Through 19 Weeks: Spent $950 / Won $1600 / Up 65 units

Outright WinnerDahmen (90/1)_$5, Poston (70/1)_$10, Kisner (55/1)_$5First Round LeaderNesmith & Burgoon (both 125/1)_$5 each, Higgs (100/1)_$5,Dahmen & An (80/1)_$5, Hovland (70/1)_$5

All those FRL bets are early wave. I love this group of AM'ers. I feel like we'll be hitting one of those and that will give us degens some live betting cash to sprinkle in right off the rip! You'll notice a lighter outright card as a result of all the FRL action since there appears to be an edge there. Like last week, it's going to be extremely difficult for someone at 125/1 or worse to win this golf tournament given the strength of this field. I like that all 3 of these guys had solid weeks at Colonial, and I know for a fact they all 3 feel really good about their game. As you see in Ben's opener, Dahmen and Kiz both gained less than 2 strokes putting last week, but still finished inside the Top 30. Now Kiz arrives on Bermuda greens that he loves...Alright, that's all I have time for this week. Let's hit another one!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's an underdog in all of his head to head matchups

• He's $800 more expensive than last week and $1600 more expensive than 2 events ago

• Last week he set a career high for strokes gained in the short game

• He's never played here before

• He ranks 142nd in the field in strokes gained putting on bermuda (averages losing almost half a stroke per round)

• Despite being a great ball striker he's 75th in the field in bogey aviodance

• He loses strokes against his baseline on short courses

• He loses strokes against his baseline on firm greens

• He's lost strokes around the green in 7 of his last 12 events

At 14.5% actual FNGC lineup generated % (9th highest), Collin Morikawa, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Pontifications with Pat

Weird superstition of mine. I hate having a traffic light turn yellow while I’m driving thru it. I consider it bad luck. Anyone else?

Update on one of my New Year’s resolutions that you might remember from Pontificate early in the year. I said I was going to read more books. At this time I have read exactly one hundred and eighteen pages of a 900 page book that I started in January. So yeh, progressing nicely.

If there’s ever an occurrence where my group get waved thru on the golf course, there is 100% likelihood that I will hit a terrible shot. Especially on a Par 3. I seriously don’t think in my lifetime I’ve ever hit a good or even decent shot in that situation.

One of the more satisfying things in life for me is a nice cold beer admiring my lawn post cutting the grass. I feel such a sense of accomplishment and it's quite cathartic to me. It’s the little things kids.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the RBC Heritage and yet again another stacked field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's RBC:

1. Merritt 2. Streelman 3. DeChambeau 4. Stuard 5. Poston 6. RCB 7. Simpson 8. Lowry 9. List 10. Pan

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Harbour Town (min 8 rounds): 

1. Dufner 2. Kokrak 3. Haas 4. Kuchar 5. Piercy 6. Kisner 7. DJ 8. Horschel 9. Sabbatini 10. Donald

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bermuda grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Fowler 2. Day 3. English 4. Poston 5. Im 6. Lashley 7. Simpson 8. Horschel 9. CH3 10. DeChambeau

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200 yards & under, average to difficult scoring, and firm greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Day 2. Kuchar 3. Simpson 4. Donald 5. DJ 6. Furyk 7. Kokrak 8. Watson 9. Noren 10. CH3/Bryson

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, average to difficult scoring, and short courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Kuchar 2. Streelman 3. Kokrak 4. DeChambeau 5. Furyk 6. Dufner 7. CH3 8. Watson 9. DJ 10. Stanley

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on Pete Dye courses:

 1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Kuchar 4. Grillo 5. Day 6. Rose 7. Kokrak 8. Knox 9. Rahm 10. Garcia

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Harbour Town, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. Rahm 3. McIIroy 4. JT 5. Matsuyama 6. Higgs 7. Schauffele 8. English 9. Simpson 10. Im

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. JT 2. Henley 3. Morikawa 4. McDowell 5. Hoffman 6. Hoge 7. Redman 8. Reavie 9. Gooch 10. Hovland

9. 

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% scrambling (the 2 most important things this week) from the last calendar year, your top 10 is:

1. McIIroy 2. Matsuyama 3. Rahm 4. Simpson 5. Furyk 6. Schauffele 7. Knox 8. Morikawa 9. NeSmith 10. Fitzpatrick

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Day 2. Watson 3. Koepka 4. Grace 5. Hovland 6. Reed 7. Simpson 8. Kisner 9. Garcia 10. DJ