Greenbrier

The Greenbrier at Old White TPC

Happy Independence Day! God Bless this great nation of ours, no matter how f-ed up it can seem sometimes. I've been lucky enough to travel outside of the USA several times & in fact have an uncle that has lived in Nairobi, Kenya for almost 10 years and because of him I have an awesome adopted cousin that is Kenyan. You can't truly appreciate just how good we Americans have it until you see true 3rd world poverty first hand. The little things like a hot shower with running water, INDOOR PLUMBING, not having to have 6 armed guards w/ AK's standing outside each bank, a (mostly) stable currency, a (mostly) functional judicial system, carpet!, and most importantly the FREEDOM to pursue what makes us happy. I just finished having breakfast with my dad's entire side of the family at Dennys, and at the table next to us was a family of 12 Guatemalan's that are all here illegally (I know this because the patriarch of the family is a friend of my aunt, it's a very small town in Indiana). I couldn't help being struck by the duality of two families doing the exact same thing, enjoying each others company, sharing old stories, making stupid faces at the youngest members trying to get them to smile, and both families said a prayer before the meal thankful for the incredible opportunities that can be found in America and truly grateful for being able to provide for each others family. The only difference I could see was that my family was lucky enough to be born on a certain piece of ground surrounded by an imaginary line, and the other family just happened to be born on a different piece of ground surrounded by a different imaginary line. Busting your ass to put food on the table, starting from the bottom with nothing and working your way up so your children can have a better life than you, wanting to be somewhere that allows you the right to do whatever makes you happy, that sounds pretty damn American to me. Be thankful for everything you have my friends, we are all very lucky!Week two of the PGA All-Star break is here as many of the top pros start to head over to the other side of the pond for the Irish & Scottish Open's to begin prep for the British. Lets get into this doo doo brown field! Leh go! 

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when we have a weak field with players that we aren't as familiar with. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie or Bookmaker to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Last week the very first line that we highlighted featured Francesco Molinari with this quote: 'Molinari has been equally good on both sides of the pond, if you incorporated his euro stats into his PGA stats he's basically top 10 in every tee to green stat there is......if you covered up names & just looked at recent stats alone, he should be the highest owned player' (FYI, he was generally only 16% owned). So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: The very top line on mybookie really surprised me....Webb is the -130 favorite over Russ this week. Russ is king of the recent form narrative and has back to back 5th place finishes here at the White Course, while Webb has missed two of this last three cuts, yet has sneaky course history here with 3 top 10 finishes. Strokes gained putting is a big angle this week, & I'm still not sure that people really appreciate just how good Webb has been this year. Even though he's lost strokes putting his last two events, he's still T-8 for the year on tour, while Russ, who has always been a good putter ranks 68th currently. Harman is priced just under Neimann this week, but is the favorite head to head despite getting less industry buzz. A common theme this week from the books is giving the better putters a slight advantage over the tee to green guys. Neimann is uber talented as he ranks 3rd in the field in ball striking, but his game is very Jordan Spieth-esque right now, as the short game is just a train wreak, though the putter has been better recently. After a little lull from incredible early season form, Harman has come back around recently fresh off a 6th place finish at the Travelers where he gained 10.7 strokes on the field.Lovemark is $400 more expensive this week, but Putnam has substantially more industry buzz this week. Lovemark has really struggled to hit fairways the last 5 events so perhaps the books are predicting the wide fairways at the Old White to help a brother out. Not to mention he also finished 3rd here last year. Just in case you were wondering, Tony is the fav over both of these guys, especially Phil. Tony has played well here with a 13th & a 7th place finish, while Phil has either skipped the event or played poorly & Bubba has been pretty mediocre considering they both have estates on the course. I could legit see this being a party week for Phil & friends while they falconry their dicks off before he starts the grind & prep for the British. Wow, this is really where we are.....the former ball striking darling of DFS golf Kevin Chappell is a dog to (not) household name Ryan Armour. No way to sugarcoat it, Chappy is #130 in this incredibly weak field in total strokes gained over his last 12 round. Our boy Ryan Armour, priced at a juicy $7700, is actually #10 in the entire field in total strokes gained his last 12 rounds....give me the Armour!!!!!LINE INEFFICIENCY ALERT! So Webb is -130 against Henley, & Henley is -135 against X, so Webb should be AT LEAST -160 against X but is only -135. Just like we highlighted Paul Casey at the Travelers (even after he collapsed he still crushed his head to heads), Webb is the clear favorite with the bookmakers this week against guys that are similarly priced. The battle of the terrible putters! Believe it or not, even though Ryan Moore missed the cut at the Travelers, he still ranks #1 in the field in strokes gained T2G his last 12 rounds. Keegan is a T2G monster as well, but just continues to be the worst putter on planet Earth. Woah, this might be the most surprising line this week. CH3 is $1700 cheaper than Bubba, but Bookmaker has him as the ever so slight favorite. Why? I honestly don't know, it's not like CH3 has great history here or excellent recent form (good, just not excellent). All I know is I'll certainly take this price into account. 

THE Chalk Bomb

It's another odd week for ownership with a weak course fit, weak field, and very few players in really great form. We're gonna do the first ever DOUBLE chalk bomb to hopefully accumulate at least 25% ownership between the two. As per usual we're just looking for the classic setup of increased price, not great history, and poor head to head match-up prices. Both guys have price increases of AT LEAST $2200, and if you didn't already know, David shared a great stat from past data about guys that are 11k+ in his weekly 18 Birdies writeup found

HERE

. Phil & Bubba, your the chalk bombs!

10 Facts to Get Your Falconry On

1. Falconry is defined as: the sport of hunting with falcons or other birds of prey; the keeping and training of such birds. The most bad ass sporting event there is.2. Top 5 T2G guys from last years Greenbrier: 1. Kelly Kraft 2. Danny Lee 3. Jamie Lovemark 4. Rory Sabb 5. Nick Taylor3. Top 5 guys priced under 8k in my Greenbrier model: 1. Putnam 2. Armour 3. Power 4. Burgoon 5. Spaun4. Top 5 guys T2G from last week that are playing this week: 1. CH3 2. Burgoon 3. Armour 4. Ancer 5. Gay5. Even though it's a par 70, par 5 scoring is still very important this week. The top 5 par 5 scorers are: 1. Phil 2. Finau 3. Lovelady 4. Mitchell 5. Wise6. Top 5 Bentgrass putters (relative to baseline, and guys you actually care about): 1. Garrigus 2. Ancer 3. Armour 4. Lingmerth 5. Lee7. Bottom 5 Bentgrass putters (""): 1. Spaun 2. Gay 3. Moore 4. Na 5. Rory Sabb8. Top 5 course history guys: 1. Henley 2. Ted Potter! 3. Finau 4. Lingmerth 5. JB Holmes9. Top 5 guys in # of GIR hit the last 6 events: 1. Streelman 2. Moore 3. Putnam 4. JJ Henry 5. JJ Spaun10. We live in the greatest country ever created. Happy 4th!

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Birdie ($3), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar