HP 🍑 for the 2024 PGA Championship

First Look: Valhalla Golf Club @ Louisville, Kentucky

Check out DB’s full Course Breakdown for everything you need to know about this week’s venue including in-depth stats and data from Bet The Number.

With Rory’s runaway win last week, the Wells Fargo became the latest ‘elevated’ event to deliver a big-name winner after an early season of longshots on the PGA TOUR. Now coming off back-to-back wins (if you count the Zurich), McIlroy suddenly looks the most likely challenger to Scottie Scheffler’s quest for the Grand Slam. But will the pressures of new parenthood get to the World No. 1? Will Bryson DeChambeau prove the Masters wasn’t a fluke, or will LIV’s top dawgs Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka remind everyone of who they are? All this and more should make for an exciting major championship week at Valhalla, so let’s get into it!

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 36 rounds: 1. DeChambeau  2. Scheffler 3. McIlroy 4. Mitchell 5. Tosti  6. Lee, M.W. 7. Meronk 8. Schauffele 9. Aberg 10. Niemann

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 36 rounds: 1. Scheffler  2. Smith, Jordan 3. Hoge 4. Conners 5. Mitchell  6. Lowry 7. Rahm  8. Smith, Cam 9. Schauffele 10. Finau

3. SG: ARG Leaders last 36 rounds:  1. Matsuyama 2. Reed 3. Smith, Cam 4. Scheffler  5. Thomas 6. Hughes 7. Johnson, Dustin  8. Koepka 9. Fleetwood 10. Kim, S.H.

4. SG: Putting last 36 rounds:  1. Smith, Cam 2. Reed 3. McCarthy  4. Koepka  5. Bezuidenhout 6. Bjork 7. Gotterup 8. Hossler 9. Pendrith 10. Theegala

5. SG: APP from 175-250 yds last 50 rounds: 1. Matsuyama 2. List 3. Scheffler  4. Hoffman  5. Rahm 6. Hojgaard, Nicolai 7. Hatton 8. Norrman 9. Conners 10. Hovland

6. SG: Putting from 4’-10’ last 36 rounds: 1. Hossler 2. Oleson 3. Schenk  4. Bhatia  5. Gotterup  6. Dunlap 7. Malnati 8. Svensson  9. Griffin, Ben 10. Todd

7. Top 10 in Ball Speed last 36 rounds: 1. DeChambeau  2. Lee, M.W.  3. Clark 4. Tosti  5. McIlroy  6. Gotterup 7. Woodland 8. Knapp 9. Young, Cam 10. Finau

8. Top 10 in GIR Percentage last 50 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. Garnett  3. Conners 4. Noren  5. Aberg 6. Mitchell 7. Putnam  8. Ghim  9. Rai 10. van Rooyen

9. Top 10 in Par 5 Scoring last 36 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. Cantlay  3. Hughes 4. Clark 5. Thomas 6. Davis 7. Schauffele 8. Hubbard 9. Zalatoris 10. Noren

10. SG: Total (Per Rd vs Field) at Major Championship Comp Courses last 32 rounds: 1. Schauffele 2. Smith, Cam 3. Scheffler  4. DeChambeau  5. Aberg 6. Koepka 7. Fleetwood 8. McIlroy 9. Hatton 10. Lee, M.W.

Over/Unders for the PGA Championship

Rain and thunderstorms are currently rolling through Kentucky, but they should make way for clear skies come Thursday morning. With low winds and soft conditions, I’m expecting round one to have some of the best scoring conditions of the week. That said, the soft ground will favor those carry-distance bombers off the tee who aren’t reliant on much runout.

I’m counting on Scheffler to use his length to take advantage of the Par 5s with at least a couple of birdies, and nine fairways feels doable for Tommy Fleetwood who hit over that number in three out of four rounds during last week’s Wells Fargo on a very similar course to Valhalla. As for Spieth, his name alone is the reason this bogey number isn’t higher. He’s made 30 bogeys or worse over his last 10 rounds, and keep in mind those were events on MUCH easier layouts than we’ll see this week — I think we’ll get our fair share of Spieth blow-up holes on Thursday. I’m going for it all on this play with no insurance, so here’s hoping for a 3/3!