HP 🍑 for the Mexico Open 2024

First Look: Vidanta Vallarta @ Vallarta, Mexico

Check out DB’s full Course Breakdown for everything you need to know about this week’s venue including in-depth stats and data from Bet The Number.

While Hideki Matsuyama might not be the star-studded winner many hoped for last week, Riviera Country Club, as it almost always does, delivered one of the most enjoyable weeks of the early PGA TOUR calendar. At 60-1 pre-tournament, the Japanesian (surely that’s not a word?) becomes the shortest betting favorite to cash a winning ticket this year. With the West Coast Swing behind us, we head South of the Border to bomber’s paradise Vidanta Vallarta for a significantly less loaded field. But as DB likes to say, the money is still good. So here’s what you need to know ahead of the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Let’s get into it!

Welcome to the Show:
Get to Know the 2024 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2024 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Pierceson Coody - Plano, TX

  One of the most highly-touted collegiate golfers in recent memory, Pierceson Coody has continued to impress through his first few years as a professional. He earned his TOUR Card via a sixth-place finish in the 2023 Korn Ferry Tour points list in his first full year of pro golf since graduating from the University of Texas where he was at one point the No. 1 amateur in the world. The 23-year-old won twice on the KFT last season flashing elite power off the tee. Coody finished the year ranked 4th in Total Driving and 5th in Driving Distance with an average of 323 yards with a driver in his hand. Like most rookies, he has struggled early on in his first year on the PGA TOUR, missing the cut in each of his first three starts. But there’s no doubt he has the natural talent to perform at the highest level.

• Norman Xiong - Guam

  Originally from the U.S. territory of Guam but a native of San Diego, Norman Xiong has perhaps the most interesting path to the TOUR of any rookie this year. Back in 2022, with no status on any PGA-sanctioned tour, Xiong won the Wichita Open on the KFT as a Monday qualifier. Eighteen months and another KFT victory later, the 24-year-old earned his first TOUR card by finishing 16th in the final KFT points list. A former Haskins Award winner at the University of Oregon, Xiong boasts above-average skill off the tee and on the green but inconsistency on approach has held him back as he ranked outside the top 100 on the KFT in GIR percentage in 2023.

• Mac Meissner - Charleston, SC

  Mac Meissner has already proven he has the ‘clutch’ gene that so many of the all-time greats possess. Entering the 2023 KFT Tour Championship outside the top 30 in the season-long points list, Meissner needed an excellent performance in the final tournament of the year to secure his first TOUR card. The former SMU Mustang did just that, shooting a pair of 68s over the weekend to finish T3 and vault all the way to No. 20 in the rankings. Meissner hasn’t managed to stay hot through his first couple of TOUR starts with two MCs in two events so far, but the 25-year-old has an all-around solid game that could see him contend in the weaker field events in 2024.

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. Daffue  2. Vegas  3. Champ 4. Tosti 5. Ghim  6. Mitchell 7. Dougherty  8. Detry 9. Duncan 10. Finau

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. Finau  2. Kim, Michael 3. van Rooyen 4. Hadley 5. Hubbard  6. Lower 7. Thompson  8. Reavie  9. Young, Carson 10. Spaun

3. SG: ARG Leaders last 24 rounds:  1. Hisatsune 2. Springer 3. Vazquez  4. Hughes  5. Moore, Ryan  6. Baddeley  7. Ghim 8. Trainer  9. Stevens 10. Endycott

4. SG: Putting last 24 rounds:  1. Hojgaard, Nicolai 2. Suh 3. Chappell  4. Wallace  5. Grillo 6. Kim, Michael 7. Detry  8. Hughes  9. Higgo 10. Hoffman

5. Top 10 in Ball Speed last 24 rounds: 1. Gotterup  2. Knapp 3. Tosti  4. Dougherty  5. Bramlett 6. Tarren 7. Vegas  8. Finau  9. Daffue 10. Coody, Pierceson

6. SG: APP from 175+ last 24 rounds: 1. Highsmith 2. Mitchell 3. Whitney  4. Spaun  5. Valimaki  6. van Rooyen 7. Eckroat 8. Meissner  9. Pendrith 10. Ghim

7. SG: Putting from 6’-20’ last 24 rounds: 1. Suh  2. Jaeger  3. Sloan 4. McNealy  5. Grillo  6. Malnati 7. Pendrith 8. Kim, Michael  9. Kohles 10. Lashley

8. Top 10 in Right Miss Tendency (fewest misses) last 24 rounds: 1. Wu, Dylan  2. Riley  3. Lee, K.H.  4. Valimaki  5. Endycott 6. Eckroat  7. Duncan  8. Lashley  9. Bjork 10. Grillo

9. SG: Total (Per Rd vs Field) at Vidanta CC last 8 rounds: 1. Finau  2. Wu, Brandon 3. Riley  4. Champ  5. Taylor, Ben 6. Rodgers 7. Hall 8. Tosti  9. Grillo  10. Young, Carson

10. Top 10 in Data Golf Positive Course History vs. Expectation: 1. Wu, Brandon 2. Riley 3. Finau  4. Taylor, Ben  5. Champ 6. Young, Carson  7. Trainer 8. Hall  9. Moore, Ryan 10. Tosti

Now that Season Long Best Ball is underway, I’ll be back to posting Round 1 UD plays in the HP email. I’m going with a NUKE here w/ 5 plays for an insured payout so if we miss 1, we still make money. Plus, there’s some push possibility with a few lines. We went 3-1-1 with the 5 banger last week for a little .5x small return.

Here are the averages the last 2 years at Vidanta according to Bet The Number for these key categories: 8 (out of 13) FWYs, 12 GIRs, 4 BoB’s, and 2.5 Bogeys or Worse.
Grillo & B Wu both averaged 3 BoW per round here in 2023. Vidanta features 3 of the top 50 hardest holes on the PGA TOUR. There are bogeys out there.
Finau averaged 4.2 BoB’s per round here in 2023 & 4.3 in 2022. His putter’s in way worse form. This is a fade on the putter. Tons of push equity here too.
Hughes ball striking and in particular his mid and long irons suck. Not known for his ball striking & we’re asking him to get 2 more GIR’s than average here…No thanks. Fade.
Fox’s BoB OVER is there to boost the payout, but I do think it’s a fair #. Hopefully, he can take advantage of his mega distance edge and eat on the P5’s and short P4’s.

Click the banner above to get a 100% deposit match on your first $100 deposited.