HP 🍑 for the Genesis Invitational 2024

First Look: Riviera Country Club @ Pacific Palisades, CA

Check out DB’s full Course Breakdown for everything you need to know about this week’s venue including in-depth stats and data from Bet The Number.

The season of longshots continues after 170-1 Nick Taylor survives the sloppiest WM Phoenix Open we’ve ever seen… We’ve STILL yet to see a winner at shorter than 70-1 through six weeks of PGA TOUR golf in 2024, but this week takes us to Riviera where the stars have always shined bright. The year’s second designated event brings a loaded and limited field of just 70 that also includes one T. Woods. Whether you’re betting the GOAT or backing another big name, here’s what you need to know ahead of the Genesis Invitational.

Let’s get into it!

Welcome to the Show:
Get to Know the 2024 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2024 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Chandler Phillips - Huntsville, TX

  If you’re looking for a potential breakout player among this year’s rookies, Chandler Phillips might be your Huckleberry. The Texan looks like he walked right off the set of Tombstone and onto the golf course, and he’s deadly accurate with a putter or a pistol in his hand. Last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Phillips ranked 3rd and 6th respectively in Putts per Rd and Putting Avg. The former Texas A&M Aggie earned his first TOUR card thanks to a win and four additional top-10 finishes on the KFT last season — good enough to earn 10th place in the final KFT points list.

• Wilson Furr - Jackson, MS

  Not to be forgotten in the shadow of Nick Dunlap, Wilson Furr is another former Alabama standout climbing the ranks of professional golf. The 25-year-old turned pro in 2021 after four seasons with the Crimson Tide and earned his first TOUR card after just one full season on the Korn Ferry Tour. Furr bagged nine top-10 finishes on the developmental tour last season including a T6 in the KFT Championship. The strength of his game is off the tee where he averaged over 320 yards per drive last season; 10th best on the KFT.

• Kevin Dougherty - Murrietta, CA

  On the older side for a PGA TOUR rookie, 32-year-old Kevin Dougherty is proving his best golf might yet be ahead of him. The California native earned his first TOUR card after five straight seasons on the KFT. In 2023, Dougherty recorded five top-10 finishes powered by his elite length off the tee. With an average driving distance of 323 yards, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy muscled his way to the top five on the KFT in Driving Distance. He’s carried that power over to the PGA TOUR where he’s gained over a stroke OTT in each of his first two starts, but poor play on and around the greens out West led him to a MC at the Amex and a T50 at the Farmers.

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 40 rounds: 1. McIlroy  2. Scheffler  3. Yi 4. Aberg 5. Hovland  6. An 7. Young, Cameron  8. Conners 9. Kim, S.W. 10. List

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 40 rounds: 1. Scheffler  2. Hoge 3. Ryder 4. Morikawa 5. Glover  6. Kirk  7. Schauffele  8. Woodland  9. Poston 10. Cole

3. SG: ARG Leaders last 24 rounds:  1. Thomas 2. Matsuyama 3. Schauffele  4. Henley  5. Glover  6. Spaun  7. Kim, S.W. 8. Homa  9. Spieth 10. Kuchar

4. SG: Putting on Overseeded Greens Leaders last 40 rounds:  1. Griffin, Ben 2. Burns  3. Todd  4. Montgomery  5.Ryder 6. Kuchar 7. Taylor  8. Scott  9. English 10. Schauffele

5. SG: APP from 160-230 last 40 rounds: 1. Hoffman  2. Scheffler 3. Rodgers  4. Hoge  5. Poston 6. Cole 7. McCarthy  8. English  9. Straka 10. Bradley

6. SG: Putting on Poa from 4’-15’ last 40 rounds: 1. Montgomery 2. Homa 3. Todd  4. Hoge  5. Bezuidenhout  6. Hojgaard 7. Schenk 8. Hovland  9. Hossler 10. Smalley

7. Top 10 in Driver Carry Distance last 40 rounds: 1. McIlroy  2. An  3. Clark  4. Scott  5. Johnson, Chase  6. Burns 7. Aberg 8. Woodland  9. Hojgaard 10. Young, Cameron

8. Top 10 in Going for the Green last 40 rounds: 1. Dunlap  2. List  3. Kim, S.W.  4. Hovland  5. Jaeger 6. Murray  7. Clark  8. Conners  9. Cantlay 10. Scheffler

9. SG: Total (Per Rd vs Field) at Riviera CC last 12 rounds: 1. Homa  2. Young, Cameron  3. Morikawa  4. Hovland  5. Scheffler 6. Cantlay 7. Zalatoris  8. Finau  9. Clark  10. Schauffele

10. Top 10 in Data Golf Positive Course History vs. Expectation: 1. Svensson 2. Young, Cameron 3. Homa  4. Theegala  5. Hodges  6. Morikawa  7. Zalatoris 8. Hovland  9. Straka 10. Scott

Now that Season Long Best Ball is underway, I’ll be back to posting Round 1 UD plays in the HP email. I’m going with a NUKE here w/ 5 plays for an insured payout so if we miss 1, we still make money. Plus, there’s some push possibility with a few lines.

Here are the averages the last 4 years at RIV according to Bet The Number for these key categories: 7 FWYs, 10 GIRs, 3.3 BoB’s, and 3 Bogeys or Worse.
Scottie could certainly get 6 BoB’s, but he could also hit 15 GIR’s and make nothing.
Spieth’s been spraying it off the tee. Could see him going well below the average # of fairways hit here.
Scott’s dialed and loves this place. -2 or better on a soft(ish) RIV seems feasible.
Fowler at 2.5 Bogeys or worse is insane. He’s sucked so far this year. The average of 3 bogeys or worse should be automatic.
Hojgaard hitting 1 more GIR than average seems likely too. Kid suits this place nicely. Click the banner above to get a 100% deposit match on your first $100 deposited.