HP 🍑 for the Cognizant Classic 2024

First Look: PGA National @ Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Check out DB’s full Course Breakdown for everything you need to know about this week’s venue including in-depth stats and data from Bet The Number.

The PGA TOUR kicks off the Florida Swing this week with a new name on an old tournament as 19 of the world’s top 50 players will tee it up at PGA National. Rory McIlroy headlines the tee sheet, but the newest TOUR winner and Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jake Knapp will look to stay hot after his impressive victory in Mexico. With the win, the rookie punched his ticket to Augusta (and cashed a 40-1 ticket for Pat) as we inch closer to the Masters. Will another player earn their trip to the first major of the year this week? And can Pat cash two outright in a row? Read on for everything you need to know ahead of the 2024 Cognizant Classic.

Let’s get into it!

Welcome to the Show:
Get to Know the 2024 PGA Tour Rookies

Thanks to recent eligibility changes from the PGA Tour, 45 newly minted Tour Cards were handed out ahead of the 2024 season. Each week, we’ll spotlight a few up-and-comers whose names will be important to know as the year progresses.

• Blaine Hale Jr. - Dallas, TX

  From the mini tours to the PGA TOUR, Blaine Hale Jr. is the perfect example of the rollercoaster life of a professional golfer. Last year, the 27-year-old Texan had no status on any PGA-sanctioned circuit with just one KFT start to his name. He entered Q-School outside the top 4,000 in the Official World Golf Ranking and showed up in Ponte Vedra in December with a bag of clubs and a dream. There, Hale Jr. fired three sub-70 rounds to finish third and secure his first TOUR card. Despite the rags-to-riches story as a professional, Hale saw great success at the collegiate level with Oklahoma as a member of the Sooners 2017 national championship team. He’s an elite approach player who somehow ranks 5th on TOUR in SG: APP in 2024, but poor putting and driving have held him back from making his first cut on the PGA TOUR in any of his first three starts.

• Trace Crowe - Greenville, SC

  Trace Crowe needed a clutch weekend at Q-School in December to earn his first TOUR Card after narrowly missing out on guaranteed status via the KFT points list. The former Auburn Tiger was in the mix at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last fall before a 76-74 weekend dashed his hopes for the time being. But he wouldn't make the same mistake again, and four rounds in the 60s at Q-School earned him a runner-up finish and guaranteed status on the PGA TOUR. The 27-year-old bagged three top-10 finishes on the KFT last season including his first professional victory at the NV5 Invitational. The strength of Crowe’s game is on the greens where he ranked inside the top 30 on the KFT in Putting Average and Putts per Round.

• Hayden Springer - Nashville, TN

  Hayden Springer already locked up status on the Korn Ferry Tour thanks to two wins in just seven starts on PGA TOUR Canada in 2023, but he won’t be needing it thanks to a T4 finish at Q-School. The Nashville native turned pro in 2019 after a collegiate career at TCU and he grinded on the mini tours before winning his first two professional events in Canada last year. Sadly, Springer and his wife lost their three-year-old daughter to a developmental disease just weeks before Q-School, but his family’s story was one of the highlights of the season-ending chase for the PGA TOUR. The 27-year-old is off to a solid start in his first year on the big circuit with two made cuts in three starts so far in 2024.

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. McIlroy  2. Lee, Min Woo  3. Mitchell 4. Vegas 5. Ghim  6. Tosti 7. An  8. Young, Cameron 9. Champ 10. Conners

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. Hoge  2. Kim, Michael 3. Pavon 4. Svensson 5. Hubbard  6. Mitchell 7. Lower  8. List  9. Glover 10. Bezuidenhout

3. SG: ARG Leaders last 24 rounds:  1. Xiong 2. Holmes 3. Molinari  4. Cauley  5. Tosti  6. Cole  7. Lee, K.H. 8. Poston  9. Lashley 10. Bramlett

4. SG: Putting last 24 rounds:  1. Pavon 2. Horschel 3. Montgomery  4. Suh  5. Griffin, Ben 6. Baddely 7. Merritt  8. Hossler  9. Malnati 10. Poston

5. SG: APP from 125-200 yds last 30 rounds: 1. Kim, Michael  2. Bhatia 3. Hoge  4. Hadley  5. Dunlap 6. Straka 7. Stallings  8. Knapp 9. Svensson 10. McCarthy

6. SG: Putting from 4’-10’ last 24 rounds on Bermuda Greens: 1. McNealy 2. Straka 3. Montgomery  4. Taylor, Ben  5. Cole  6. Fitzpatrick 7. Palmer 8. McCarthy  9. Kuchar 10. Cauley

7. Top 10 in Bogey Avoidance last 24 rounds: 1. Pendrith  2. Noren  3. Hadley 4. Moore, Ryan  5. Sigg  6. Kirk 7. Henley 8. Ghim  9. van Rooyen 10. Eckroat

8. Top 10 in Par 3 Scoring last 24 rounds: 1. Eckroat  2. van Rooyen  3. Hadley  4. Martin, Ben  5. Hoge 6. Echavarria  7. List  8. Young, Carson  9. Noren 10. Jaeger

9. Top 10 in Driving Accuracy % last 24 rounds: 1. Moore, Ryan  2. Duncan 3. Blair  4. Laird  5. Ghim 6. Ryder 7. Eckroat 8. Todd 9. Horschel 10. Merritt

10. SG: Total (Per Rd vs Field) at PGA National last 12 rounds: 1. Kirk 2. Straka 3. Lowry  4. Berger  5. Henley 6. Woodland  7. Hodges 8. An 9. Im 10. Wu, Dylan

Now that Season Long Best Ball is underway, I’ll be back to posting Round 1 UD plays in the HP email. We went 4-1 last week and 7-2 the last 2 weeks for a 2.25x return. I’m only going w/ a 3 combo INSURED play for Rd 1 as I think the lines are a little sharper than the last couple of weeks.

Over the last 50 rounds, Min Woo ranks 117th and Fowler ranks 78th in BoW’s in this field according to Bet The Number. PGA National has some challenging holes (The Bear Trap) and averages over 3 BoW’s per player over the last 5 years. I do think that number drops a touch w/ #10 being a P5 this year, but I’ll take my chances these 2 make some big numbers given their poor iron play of late and propensity for big numbers.

Knapp’s BoB total is the lowest on the board, but there are BoB holes out there now with 3 gettable P5’s and holes 1,4,12, & 13 are all birdie chances. Bombers that club down and play smart have certainly had an advantage at PGA National, especially approaching firm greens w/ trouble all around with higher lofted clubs.

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