HP 🍑 for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

First Look: TPC Craig Ranch @ McKinney, Texas

If Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry won a golf tournament but no one was around to give a damn, did it really happen? Alright, alright… I guess we’ll give credit where it’s due, but I don’t think a win in a weak-field team event will lower Rory’s odds at Valhalla by much. But the PGA is still a few weeks away, and the TOUR heads next to the Lone Star State for a new-look Byron Nelson.

Let’s get into it!

1. SG: Off the Tee Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. Yu  2. Tosti  3. Dougherty 4. Mitchell 5. Semikawa 6. Champ 7. Hoey  8. Lee, M.W. 9. Kim, S.W. 10. McNealy

2. SG: Approach Leaders last 30 rounds: 1. Hoge  2. Mitchell 3. Zalatoris 4. Knapp 5. Moore, Ryan  6. Dahmen 7. Novak  8. Hubbard 9. Sigg 10. Kim, S.W.

3. SG: ARG Leaders on Overseed chipping areas last 12 rounds:  1. Bramlett 2. Baddeley 3. Sloan 4. Jaeger 5. Shelton 6. Noren 7. Bryan 8. Reavie  9. Griffin, Ben 10. Hall

4. SG: Putting last 20 rounds on Bent greens:  1. McNealy 2. Baddely 3. Hardy  4. Hadley  5. Hughes 6. Hall 7. Suh  8. Montgomery  9. Wallace 10. Kim, Tom

5. Top 10 in Birdie or Better % last 36 rounds: 1. An 2. Hubbard 3. Pendrith 4. Detry  5. Hoge 6. Dou 7. Spieth 8. Kraft 9. Kizzire 10. Smotherman

6. SG: APP from 175-250 last 30 rounds: 1. Norlander 2. Kraft 3. Lashley  4. McGreevy  5. Yu  6. List 7. Smotherman 8. Bryan  9. Hoge 10. Valimaki

7. SG: Putting from 8’-15’ on Bent greens last 16 rounds: 1. McNealy 2. Buckley  3. Jaeger 4. Scott  5. Schenk  6. Wu 7. Bramlett 8. Higgo  9. Baddeley 10. Hall

8. Top 10 in Birdie or Better Conversion % (BoB after a GIR): 1. Spieth 2. Hoge  3. Detry 4. Kim, Tom  5. An 6. Kim, S.H. 7. Dunlap  8. Hubbard  9. Pendrith 10. Crowe

9. Top 10 in Data Golf Positive Course History vs. Expectation: 1. Kuest 2. Pan  3. Dou 4. Norrman  5. Lee, K.H. 6. Young, Carson 7. Burgoon 8. Skinns 9. Palmer 10. Kang

10. SG: Total (Per Rd vs Field) at TPC Craig Ranch last 8 rounds: 1. Day 2. Kim, S.W. 3. Pan  4. Dou  5. Scott 6. Palmer 7. Norrman 8. Jaeger 9. Tway 10. Werenski

Over/Unders for the Byron Nelson

Rain and thunderstorms are rolling in Thursday + Friday that I suspect will cause delays and create a soft golf course by the time these guys get into their opening rounds. As a result, I like some low scores in Rd. 1 with this trio all going under their total stroke projections.

TPC Craig Ranch is the 4th-easiest course on TOUR and usually provides a winning score in the mid-20s. I think 3-under or better is definitely doable for these guys who stack up well in our Bet The Number models.

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