The 2024 Genesis Scottish Open Chalk 💣

Rain earlier in the week and carrying over into Thursday will have the course nice and soft, but the current forecast calls for some wind that could make things interesting. Looking at the charts, the PM/AM wave may get the best of the breezes with easier conditions in the afternoon for round one.

 For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Jordan Spieth -121 ($8000) vs. Brian Harman -109 ($8600)

We begin with a pair of Open Champions with last year’s Champion Golfer of the Year as an underdog to the 2017 winner despite a big gap in DraftKings DFS pricing.

Both played here each of the last two years with a surprisingly similar record as each has a MC as well as a top-12 finish.

With plenty of stars to choose from, these guys are flying a bit under the radar as far as public ownership. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Harman is coming in around 11 %-owned while Spieth is a few spots below him at 8%.

Justin Thomas -127 ($8800) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick -103 ($9000)

Sticking in the $8k range, the sharp oddsmakers have Justin Thomas as a heavy favorite over Matt Fitzpatrick in a 72-hole matchup even though JT is slightly cheaper in DFS.

Like matchup one, both of these guys only started playing this event once it became co-sanctioned by the PGA TOUR, so each has two prior trips to the Renaissance Club. JT has never finished better than T60, while Fitz finished T6 here in 2022 before missing the cut last year.

Neither player appears to be overly popular in DFS this week as JT and Fitz are rostered in about 12% and 8% of entries respectively.

Aaron Rai -128 ($8300) vs. Corey Conners -102 ($8900)

Lastly, two-glove Rai is a big favorite in a head-to-head matchup against Corey Conners even though the Englishman offers a $600 discount.

Same story here as both played this event in each of the last two seasons, but Conners has enjoyed his visits to Scotland much more than Rai. The Canadian has two made cuts including a T19 last year while Rai and his iron covers have yet to make the cut at the Renaissance Club.

That said, Rai’s hot form as of late has earned the public’s backing as he’s trending around 17% ownership according to our Nut Hut projections, and Conners is popular as well at around 14%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We came back from the July 4th holiday with a flourish as Jordan Spieth predictably crapped the bed at the lowly John Deere Classic (but shoutout to Damn Good Dawg Davis Thompson on the first win!)

The last major championship Chalk Bomb of the year is just a week away, but before we turn our attention to Royal Troon, we first must navigate the tricky weather presented by Scotland’s north coast for Caledonia’s national open.

The field isn’t quite as strong as it was in 2023, but plenty of big names have made the trip to the Renaissance Club for one last warmup before the big one next week.

According to our DFS ownership projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord, seven players meet our minimum threshold of 15% to be eligible as our unpopular fade.

I’ll be honest, I think just about all of these guys will play well this week, so let’s just say this isn’t my most confident Chalk Bomb of the year. But alas, we must choose — so let’s get into it.

As always, our data nerds at Bet the Number have put together a brief on the Renaissance Club and what particular stats and data points are important to keep in mind this week.

In addition to the usual strokes gained data, they’ve identified SG: Approach from 120-180 yards as being especially important. This week’s Chalk Bomb is one of the best iron players in the world, but that particular yardage hasn’t been a strength for him as of late. Over his last 36 rounds, this player ranks 44th in the field in SG: APP from that distance.

Also particular to the Renaissance Club, BTN has honed in on putting from outside 25 feet as lag putting from long range is often required on these large greens. This area isn’t a strong suit for our guy either as he ranks 58th in the field in SG: Putting from 25’+ over his last 36 rounds.

If that wasn’t enough to dissuade you, consider how the sharp oddsmakers are approaching this player at the Scottish Open. In 72-hole head-to-head matchup markets, this week’s Chalk Bomb is a significant underdog to similarly-priced players such as Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele and especially Rory McIlroy.

I actually really like this player at the Open next week — after all, he is a past champion. But compared to some of the other options available north of $10,000 on DraftKings, I’m more comfortable taking the risk and fading this guy.

So with a chalky 20% ownership according to our projections, Collin Morikawa this week’s Chalk Bomb!

I wonder if in all of the world there is a tattoo artist who doesn’t actually have any tattoos?

I don’t think you can convince me that Peanut Butter wasn’t invented by some kid who realized how good a bunch of chewed-up peanuts in their mouth tasted all smashed together. Probably at a baseball game also.

I would hate to be the person in distress that needs to send up a flare to be rescued on July 4th.

I don’t understand why CVS can’t figure out a way to not print out 3 foot long receipts. Haven’t they heard of Global Warming! The earth is melting because of CVS!

Alright friends, that’s all I got for this week for the Genesis Scottish Open. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!