The Genesis Invitational 2024 Chalk 💣

Wind has played a factor in previous editions of the Genesis Invitational, but it looks like the air should be nice and calm - if a little cold - this week at Riviera. As of today, there doesn’t seem to be any wave advantage to speak of as what little wind there is will pick up in the afternoon on both Thursday and Friday.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Patrick Cantlay -130 ($9300) vs. Viktor Hovland +100 ($10,000)

A 70-man elevated field means a LOT of big names to choose from, and we start with a couple that are valued very differently in DFS compared to outright head-to-head markets. Despite being $700 cheaper in DraftKings DFS, Patrick Cantlay is a heavy favorite over Viktor Hovland according to sharp oddsmakers.

Both players have excellent records at Riviera with four top-5 finishes between them. Viktor has made the most of his three prior starts, never finishing worse than T20, but Cantlay has the superior body of work with five finishes of T17 or better in eight starts at Riv.

Looking at their projected DFS ownership, our Nut Hut aggregate data shows both are on the chalky side with Cantlay at 18% and Hovland trending toward 16%.

Justin Thomas -156 ($9100) vs. Ludvig Aberg +124 ($9200)

We're staying in the $9k range with another big disparity between Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg as the latter is a big underdog to JT despite a slightly more expensive DFS price tag.

Some of that is down to course experience as this marks Thomas’ 10th professional start at Riviera where he has three top-20 finishes. Ludvig on the other hand will make his debut appearance in the Genesis this week.

Both of these guys are right up there among the chalkiest plays of the week in DFS. Our Nut Hut ownership projections have JT behind only Scottie Scheffler at 23% while Aberg is in the top 5 highest-owned at just over 20%.

Denny McCarthy -140 ($7500) vs. Chris Kirk +110 ($7500)

Lastly, let’s take a closer look at the $7k range where Denny McCarthy is a major favorite over Chris Kirk while both are listed at $7500 in DraftKings DFS.

In terms of course experience, neither player has seen much in the way of success at Riviera despite each having four prior starts in this event. Denny notched a career-best T14 here last year after missing the cut in two of his first three trips while Kirk has never finished better than T33.

Neither player looks to be an overly popular play as both are right around 6-7% ownership according to our Nut Hut projections available in the Discord.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

For those keeping score at home, (literally only me), J.T. Poston’s MC at the WM Phoenix Open brings our Chalk Bomb record back above .500 on the year with two Bombs in a row finishing outside the top 60!

But this week is a different animal. With an elevated field of only 72 players, all of the big names will be at Riviera for Tiger’s event this week, including the Cat himself. While the increase in star power is awesome for the fans (sorry Nick Taylor, you don’t quite move the needle) it makes picking a Chalk Bomb especially dangerous.

This is due in part because Riviera seemingly always brings the best players in the world toward the top of the leaderboard. The George Thomas design provides an excellent test of golf with players needing every club in their bag to succeed here.

Like most tough courses, distance off the tee is a significant advantage at the Genesis, so you might be surprised that this week’s Chalk Bomb is one of the best in the world with a driver in their hand.

But our analysts at Bet the Number have identified some other key areas to highlight at Riviera, and it is in those categories that this player falls short as he is ranked 61st in this field by this week’s custom BTN model.

The first area of concern is approach play. The greens are on the larger side at Riviera, but if you listened to DB and Pat break down the course this week, you know the slick surfaces and undulations make them play much smaller. As a result, pinpoint accuracy on approach is required, and the Chalk Bomb just doesn’t have that right now. Over his last 10 starts, this player has lost over seven total strokes on approach, and he enters this week ranked 69th out of 72 players in SG: APP vs this week’s field over the last 40 rounds.

It doesn’t get much better for this guy around the green either. As we mentioned, these greens this week will be missed early and often, so these guys will need to get up and down when that happens. That’s bad news for the Chalk Bomb who ranks 61st in the field in SG: ARG over his last 40 rounds.

Now don’t get me wrong, this guy isn’t some bum. Our Nut Hut Discord ownership projections have him at 16% for a reason. Namely because of his solid history at this venue with a T20 and a runner-up in his only two previous starts. This week’s Chalk Bomb is also coming into the Genesis off a T8 last week at the WM in Phoenix, but that was mostly thanks to an insane (and in my opinion, fluky) putting performance where he gained over five strokes with the flat stick; something he did just ONCE in all of 2023.

This guy has been improving as of late, but I think a small setback is coming at Riviera, and that’s enough for me to lean toward other guys in the $8k range like Sam Burns or Sahith Theegala.

So in that case… Cameron Young, you are the Chalk Bomb!

People that drive around with little dogs in their lap annoy me. Not only is is ridiculous it also distracting. I don’t know how it’s not a traffic violation either because it sure as heck should be.

I am not a fan of Valentine’s Day. I’m the Scrooge of Cupid’s, you might say.

I wonder if the person who came up with the idea for Lunchables also gets credit for Charcuterie boards.

Hear me out. Did McDonald’s help save the apple industry in America at some point? I mean, how else can we explain the fried apple pie being forced into the conversation when ordering? Did an apple consortium beg McDonald’s to do this? It’s a conspiracy worth looking into.

Alright, that’s all I got this week for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger is back! Let’s all enjoy the moments we get with him in any field he tees it up in. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!