Genesis Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Genesis Open Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

February 13, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Genesis Open at Riviera 

The Riv....oddest course fit all year

This week always feels like the 'real' start of the PGA season. After 4 events in a row of multi-course shit show, we arrive at the Riv which by most accounts is one of the best courses these guys get to play all year. It also just so happens to be one of the oddest course fits all year that 'seems' to favor one group but in reality favors another group even more. Lets break it down:

Yes, driving distance absolutely back-tests positively at this event and as always is very helpful to have in your back pocket. It's kind of like saying in baseball, 'speed never slumps,' and unless your hurt, power never slumps in golf. If you look at the past winners here recently, Bubba, DJ, Bubba it would sure seem that big hitting is the only way to win here. BUT....did you know that at Riviera strokes gained in the short game (putting plus around the green) accounts for more of the players scoring than at any other event on tour???

It's why guys like Kevin Na have played so well here, guys like Steve Stricker, KJ Choi, Jim Furyk, Aaron Baddeley, hell even Kevin Stadler all have great history at this supposed 'bombers' course. So really there are two very distinct types of 'fit' here at Riviera, and is probably why the event is so universally loved because truly any player can win here. The quickest, easiest way to look at this is to just go off total strokes gained, and to keep the stats to the 2019 season I just did the last 12 rounds because for most of these guys its event #3 or #4. So who are some really interesting names (lets say sub 8k) that are dominating in one fit or the other (a quick 10 facts preview)?

1. Rafa (6th) in the field

2. Hadwin (7th) who also happens to have good history here

3. CH3 (8th)

4. Kokrak (13th) his recent form has been outstanding for the price you get him at every week

5. Stroud (14th) #1 in the field in strokes gained short game the last 12 rounds

6. Poston (16th) been solid all around sans the driver

7. Furyk (19th) the ole ball coach still has it, has very quietly been 1 stroke away from 3 top 8 finishes in last 5

8. Hatton (20th) always had great short game

9. Langley (21th) playing the best golf of his career currently

10. Kang (22nd) yea he's a cheater, but he's a great fit plus good history

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Thomas vs. McIlroy 

Making the correct choice in the 10k+ range this week seems like the key decision. We'll get to DJ in a minute, but lets dig into the next two highest priced guys in JT & Rory. Just like we discussed above, it really boils down to who is the better course fit, and who has more 'value.' Rory generally breaks even putting, Justin gains strokes. Rory's worst putting surface is Poa, Justin's best surface is Poa. While JT doesn't have elite history here, he's been close to leading the field in GIR's hit the last 2 years. Rory on the other hand had 1 good year in 16', and a field average year in 18' only hitting 58%. Since the beginning of 2018, Rory has returned negative DFS value 13 times, JT has returned negative value only 8 times. JT has finished 30th or worse 3 times, Rory has finished 30th or worse 7 times. At the end of the day JT has an equally high ceiling (I would honestly say it's higher but that's debatable) and a way high floor (not debatable).

MATCHUP 2

CH3 vs. Rafa

This line popped out to me because I would think it should be the other way around with CH3 as the favorite. For all the course history truther's, look no further than CH3 at Riviera. Ole Chucky pretty much chalked this week up as an automatic missed cut for most of his career, then in 2015 his GIR hit % started going up each year and has made 4 straight cuts (while leading the field in GIR's hit in 2017). What's equally strange is that his best putting surface is poa, yet he's gained strokes putting ONE time in his entire career (& for his career he averages +0.4 strokes gained putting per event!). As you'll see in the 10 facts, CH3's ball striking has been off the charts good the last 3 weeks, while Rafa has been downright poor his last 5 events (CH3 hit almost 20% more of his greens last week). BUT, Rafa has no doubt been hot with the short game, and as you know from the lead-in....sometimes thats all you need at the Riv.

MATCHUP 3

Ancer vs. Kang

I'm embarrassed how many times Sung Kang's name is going to pop up in this email, I promise it won't happen again. But just for this week, I want to point out a couple things. 1. He has really sneaky history here w/ an 8th, 22nd, & 16th 2. In that history he doesn't have crazy good putting stats so there is positive regression in there 3. I believe he lead the field in GIR's hit last week at Pebble but just putted like shit 4. He's playing the best golf of his career since the Mayakoba. Our (my) boy Ancer WILL win on the PGA tour this year...he's just got the complete game as he ranks top 20 in the field in both ball striking AND strokes gained short game, don't let the two missed cuts fool you. 

MATCHUP 4

Rahm vs. Watson

Here's another great opp for all the course history truther's to put their money where their mouth is. The king of course history Bubba Watson is a very nice +130 underdog this week to Mr. Recent Form Jon Rahm. On the whole Rahm gains more strokes in every category, by a lot, with the exception of off the tee which both guys are elite at. Rahm has never played here, Bubba has won the event 3 times. So let me explain quickly why course history can trick you. Two of the three times Bubba has won this event, he gained more strokes putting at the Genesis than at any other event the entire season. In last year's event he gained more strokes putting AND more strokes around the green than at any other event last year (twice as much as his 2nd best event!). Call it whatever you want, luck, good timing, good fortune....but it's completely UN-predictable. More on this next week. 

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Stats about our boy this week:

  • Poa is his worst putting surface by a LARGE margin

  • the more difficult the setup, the less strokes he gains on the field (this is generally a top 10 event in terms of difficulty) 

  • he's never finished in the top 15 at this event

  • At last year's event, between strokes gained putting, around the green, and approach, he gained a massive......1.5 strokes on the field for the entire event

  • Despite a good finish at the Farmers, he only hit 68% of his greens while gaining 0.2 strokes on approach

  • Of all the players 10k and above, he's missed the most cuts since the beginning of the 2018 season

  • He's a decent underdog to the guys around him in salary

  • The most popular approach distance this week is 150-175 yards, this guy ranks 105th in the field in proximity from this distance

  • This guy would be considered a bomber, but he actually loses strokes against his baseline on long courses (maybe coincides w/ the above & not great on long approach shots)

  • This guy is one of the elite drivers in the game, yet on driver heavy courses he really doesn't gain much on the field

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 18.4% this week....Rory Mcilroy, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Genesis:

1. Finau 2. Watson 3. Hahn 4. Hadwin 5. Phil 6. McDowell 7. Gooch 8. Cantlay 9. Taylor 10. Na

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Riviera:

1. DJ 2. Scott 3. Oosthy 4. Rodgers 5. Cantlay 6. HV3 7. Finau 8. Dufner 9. Kang 10. Steele

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

1. Phil 2. Walker 3. M Kim 4. Hadwin 5. Spieth 6. Cam Smith 7. Ortiz 8. Blixt 9. Swafford 10. Mahan (11.DJ)

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ Poa greens, difficult to hit fairways, and fast greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Bubba 2. DJ 3. AS 4. Hideki 5. Phil 6. Keegan 7. Furyk 8. Choi 9. Holmes 10. Garcia

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Hadwin 2. Kang 3. Furyk 4. Scott 5. Laird 6. Spieth 7. Keegan 8. Steele 9. Garcia 10. X

6.

 Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds (who's a hot ball striker):

1. CH3 2. Boooouch (Kuch) 3. Furyk 4. Bradley 5. Hideki 6. Laird 7. Hadwin 8. JT 9. Kokrak 10. Phil

7.

Top 10 in good drives gained over the last 50 rounds:

1. Langley 2. Reavie 3. Furyk 4. Im 5. Streelman 6. Bryson 7. Fleetwood 8. Henley 9. Cantlay 10. Hahn

8.

75% of all approach shots cam from 150+

, 

your top 10 in those distance(s) are:

1. Hideki 2. Kokrak 3. Ancer 4. Phil 5. Kang 6. W. Kim 7. Rodgers 8. Hoffman 9. Casey 10. Woods

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Bryson 2. Kokrak 3. Niemann 4. JT 5. Finau 6. Wise 7. Stallings 8. Taylor 9. Albertson 10. Cantlay

10.

According to both DataGolf and Fantasy National, strokes gained short game is more important here than other event on tour...so your top 10 in strokes gained short game the last 50 rounds are:

 1. Gay 2. McCarthy 3. Malnati 4. Cauley 5. Na 6. Langley 7. Walker 8. Kuchar 9. Uihlein 10. Hossler

WIN A

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