This Week's Tour Stop Genesis Invitational @ Riviera 

The Data Shows Why Riv Is Great

This week always feels like the 'real' start of the PGA season. After 3 of the last 4 events of multi-course shit show, we arrive at the Riv which by most accounts is one of the best courses these guys get to play all year. So what makes a course great, particularly for PGA tour events? The single biggest thing would seem to be that any kind of player can play well & win; half the field isn't eliminated before the event even starts. #10 on Rivieria is the perfect example of risk/reward golf that any player in the field can take advantage of, or get ejected on. The bombers can try to drive the green, but miss in the wrong spot & it's an easy bogey or worse. Short hitters can layup to the right number and have 4 good looks at birdie, but again any miss of the green is extremely difficult to get up & down.  If there is a way to display how good a course is via data I think this should do the trick: (data & image from DataGolf)

In laymen's terms for those unfamiliar with radar charts & what it's telling you: Compared to the 'average' course on tour, Driving distance is equally important here (always the most important AND predictive), driving accuracy is far less important, approach shots are more important than average, your around the green game is almost TWICE as important, and your putting is slightly more important. Even more simply, there is no 'one way to win' at Riveria, you can ball strike it to death, you can also short game it to the top of the leaderboard. 

Last year's leaderboard was a really great example when you breakdown the player's performance by category. JB Holmes won by gaining a ton of shots on approach & putting, CH3 finished 6th almost losing strokes on approach but gained it back around the greens and driving, Michael Thompson finished 7th losing strokes putting & breaking even on around the green but was 2nd in the field in ball striking. Lots of ways to get it done which is what makes Riviera so damn good.

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

X vs. Watson

Certainly the most interesting price this week. MyBookie has Xander, who is $400 cheaper than Bubba this week, as a -185 favorite or implied win odds of 65% (2 outta 3). Let's start with Bubba. Yes, he has redic course history, yes, he's in good form coming off back to back top 10's. But we'll get to him later. For Xander, he's actually played well here both times with a 15th & 9th place & Poa is far & away his best putting surface (so good in fact that I would expect it to regress). Like we described above, I think Xander has one of the unique skill sets to be able to win here in several ways as he's a really good ball-striker (9th in the field) AND he's 32nd in the field around the green (plus the aforementioned Poa putting)

MATCHUP 2

Reed vs. Morikawa

I always try to not read/listen to any outside information until after I've completed my work as not to contaminate my thinking, but it's been almost impossible to not see/hear Morikawa's name basically everywhere this week. I wanted to highlight this matchup in particular as a great example of what to look for when trying to exploit ownership leverage. Morikawa is the 2nd highest projected owned guy on Fantasy National, Patrick Reed is the 17th highest projected, and the books have the matchup at a pickem. Yes, you're giving up a little value as Morikawa is $500 cheaper, but when it comes to almost twice the ownership leverage that's a cheap price to pay. To make a brief case for Reed outside of ownership: He missed the cut at the Saudi International, but his ball-striking was really good (just putted poorly). And he's 11th in the field in strokes gained short game vs Morikawa's 80th. 

MATCHUP 3

Rose vs. Leishman

Another really nice value play here as Rose is $200 cheaper than Leishman yet the -135 favorite. Rose is actually #6 in historical GIR's at Riv, and has sneaky good course history, making every cut since 2010 w/ 4 top 16's. He's also the #1 value on the board when you compare DK to Fanduel pricing. Leishman is fresh off a win in which he went from losing 4.1 strokes putting at the Sony to gaining 8 strokes at the Farmers. His course history is extremely volatile with 3 missed cuts & 2 top 5 in his last 5 appearances. His approach play has been incredible so far this year & I expect he'll be low owned coming off the win. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.No real weather advantage this week as it looks great all week. However, you could argue a very slight edge in the FRL market to guys teeing off early in the 2nd wave on Thursday around that 11:10amPST to 11:30am slot. The reason being is they get the benefit of warmer temps than the early guys so the ball flies further, but they don't have to contend with the late afternoon POA surfaces that typically get bumpier and more unpredictable as the day goes on. All of my FRL selections below tee off between those times. Also...click here to join "Goalby's Nut Hut" because we got some great Caddie insight going out in the chat room tonight about conditions and what's important here this week.

Through 14 Weeks: Spent $700 / Won $1250 / Up 55 unitsFirst Round LeaderCauley (125/1)_$5, Rodgers (125/1)_$5, Jones (140/1)_$5, Watney (140/1)_$5,List (160/1)_$5, Tringale (175/1)_$5Outright WinnerCasey (55/1)_$8,Noren (90/1)_$7, Poston (125/1)_$5*BONUS $5 on HV3 at 400/1!

Not much of a sweat last week with these picks, but just about every week we've had someone from this list giving us a little roll of quarters in our pants on Sunday. However, Pat did tout Nick Taylor last week at 80/1 on the "TJ After Dark" YouTube show presented by DraftKings. And, the week before when Webb won the Waste Management, yours truly tweeted a live add for Webb on Friday night at 18/1. All that to say, if you're not following us on all outlets, you may miss something.  Anyway, let's address my selections above:Heavier on FRL's this week since I like betting big numbers and I feel like a shorter number wins this event. However, remember when betting FRL's, you're more likely to chop with ties, so stick to numbers that won't piss you off if you have to split it 4 ways. All 6 of the FRL guys have adjusted strokes gained numbers at Riviera in the top half of this field, so the value is strong. And, each of them have flashed form off and on in 2020. In terms of the 3 outright selections, Casey just loves this place. His form and performance here (see the 10 facts) speak for itself. I feel like Noren is due for a PGA Tour victory here soon...form is there, T16 in his first try here 2 years ago and checks the stat boxes. Great number for him. Poston is a short game wizard that hits it long enough to play here in firm conditions. He's played here twice with a T28 and T17. Pretty strong.

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a +165 underdog to someone $400 cheaper in price

• In his other H2H matchup he's also an underdog to someone cheaper than him

• Despite great course history this guy somehow doesn't even rank in the top 10 in historical GIR's hit at Riviera

• His last 2 events he's gained strokes around the green & putting, something he hasn't done since 2016

• This is his 2nd highest price since last years Genesis

• If the ownership projections hold true it will be his highest owned week since 2018

• He's 40th in the field in the 2 main approach shot buckets

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 82nd in the field in total strokes gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 101st in the field in par 4 scoring

• Over his last 12 rounds (that include 2 top 10's!) he's 71st in birdies gained

• Over his last 12 rounds (that again include 2 top 10's) he's 41st in the field in GIR's gained

• Of his last 18 rounds at Riviera, he's gained strokes putting in all but 4 (& 2 of those 4 were 0 & -0.1). Over his last 50 rounds, he's gained a TOTAL of 3.5 strokes

• Strokes gained around the green has a higher importance at Riv than almost any course on tour, this guy ranks 100th in the field his last 50 rounds

At 18% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (highest in the field) Bubba Watson, your the Chalk Bomb! This is high risk, high reward territory here folks. So if you're in the faint of heart category or are easily tilted then please pretend you didn't read this. Godspeed!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Even though unfortunately we can’t attend, I think the inaugural DFS Open is a great idea to get all the folks in our industry together and benefit a worthy charity. That being said, the thought did cross my mind that this could end up being like Fyre Festival.

So both my grandfathers were bald. My dad is bald. I however as you all know, am not and have a healthy mop on my head. Sometimes I wish I was bald though. It would be nice to just wake up and not have to brush my hair. Perhaps bald people are onto something and it’s a blessing not a curse like everyone seems to make it out to be. I’m here for you bald nation.

Last thought. Here’s an exchange between today between DB, Ben, and yours truly that really just defines this section of the email:

That’s all I got folks. Enjoy the Genesis Invitational and the fantastic field we have this week.  Good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Genesis:

1. Casey 2. Thompson 3. McIIroy 4. JT 5. List 6. Matsuyama 7. Fleetwood 8. Leishman 9. Kokrak 10. Holmes

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Riviera (min 8 rounds): 

1. Scott 2. DJ 3. HV3 4. Dufner 5. McIIroy 6. Rose 7. Cantlay 8. Bradley 9. Rodgers 10. Finau

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Smith 2. Na 3. Rodgers 4. Ortiz 5. Mickelson 6. Schauffele 7. Kuchar 8. CH3 9. Day 10. Harman

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ Poa greens, difficult scoring, & longer than 7200 yards your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Watson 4. Scott 5. Day 6. Matsuyama 7. Garcia 8. Rose 9. Spieth 10. Reed

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways, difficult scoring, and at least 7200 yards your top 10 is (min 10 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Watson 3. DJ 4. Bradley 5. Rose 6. Casey 7. Scott 8. Finau 9. Koepka 10. JT

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Conners 2. Champ 3. McIIroy 4. Rahm 5. Finau 6. Wise 7. Long 8. Morikawa 9. Watney 10. Matsuyama

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at the Riv, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. Reed 2. Koepka 3. Rahm 4. JT 5. McIIroy 6. Finau 7. Schauffele 8. Im 9. Scott 10. Woods

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Henley 2. Morikawa 3. Grillo 4. Moore 5. McIIroy 6. Cantlay 7. Reavie 8. JT 9. Hoffman 10. Bramlett

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds (must have played in at least 2 events in 2020):

1. Matsuyama 2. Leishman 3. Cantlay 4. JT 5. Niemann 6. Bramlett 7. Morikawa 8. McIIroy 9. Champ 10. Watney

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Rose 2. Koepka 3. DeChambeau 4. Schauffele 5. Mickelson 6. Casey 7. Day 8. Finau 9. Reed 10. Garcia

If you've got kids that love golf or you'd like to START loving golf...you've got to get them watching the Junior Junkies series on our YouTube channel.