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This is the forecast as of 7pmET on Wednesday night for Riviera. As you can see, there isn't much of a wave advantage. It's going to be mild winds and chilly all week as of now with temps barely reaching the 60s. We certainly can discuss what those temps do for play this week in the Nut Hut chat tonight. There's that weird blip of gusts on Friday morning, but that hasn't been there all week and seems odd. If it's not a mistake, it seems like it could shift or go away altogether. As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Patrick Cantlay -141 ($9,000) vs. Collin Morikawa +111 ($9,300)

For our first matchup this week, we followed the early dollars which somewhat surprisingly came in on Patrick Cantlay that took him from -125 up to -141 where it currently stands at the sharpest books. Even though he missed the cut on the number last week, Cantlay arrives this week at what he says is one of his favorite courses in the world at Riviera CC.From a statistical standpoint, if you dive into the numbers for the last 36 rounds played by each player, Cantlay has gained over a half stroke per round on Morikawa as a current form baseline. In a 100 round Head to Head Matchup simulation, Cantlay has a significantly higher win percentage at 61.6% which helps explain the betting line movement.It will be important to monitor ownership when it comes to DFS as we get closer to lock. Currently, Cantlay is projected to be slightly higher owned at 17% vs. Morikawa at 14%. Morikawa should have plenty of confidence after finishes T2 last year at this event but there is no doubt Cantlay has a leg up in course knowledge and rounds played at the Riv.

Tony Finau -155 ($9,500) vs. Max Homa +124 ($9,700)

One of the first names I looked for when scanning the Head to Head market release was Homa. Frankly, was a bit surprised to see him only offered in a single matchup option against Tony. The line, in comparison at least to the Draftkings pricing, is interesting to say the least.It feels as if the DFS price makers have quickly adjusted on Homa based on his recent performances while the sharpest Sportsbook's aren't quite there on Max yet. Laying $1.55 on Tony feels like a big ask here given Max's history in both California and particularly at Riviera.Ownership on both players we believe will come in somewhere in the high teens. It's important to note the consistency that Tony has been putting together week to week. If you run a sim based on each players last 50 rounds, Tony is projected to outperform Homa in every major statistical category and win the matchup 67.8% of the time. The books must be seeing the same thing!

Wyndham Clark -134 ($7,800) vs. Taylor Montgomery +104 ($7,600)

Here's a matchup that got absolutely pounded by the sharps. The line opened up with Clark EV as a slight underdog but has since been hit heavily all the way up to -134. My guy says it's largely a play on Riviera course history as incoming current form for both players has been similar.The big thing to understand here is you have the opportunity to take a substantial favorite in a head to head market with Clark that is projected at roughly half the ownership of Montgomery. Clark's data both on and around the greens at Riviera sees large uptick in performance, ranking inside the top 10 in both Scrambling Gained and Putting.While the sharps have aligned heavily with Clark, it's important to note that DataGolf disagrees. There numbers in terms of a projection set the line at Clark +119 and Montgomery -121. Which side are you on!?

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Well gang, Justin Thomas had another one of his famous late Sunday meaningless backdoor up-the-leaderboard charges to really put the chalk bomb status in jeopardy. He was able to really turn things around with the irons on Sunday, leading the field in R4 approach, which is something we hadn't seen in 6 months out of JT. Onward.Again, we know how difficult predicting ownership can be in fields like this, so we do see some differences from site to site. A lot of this is also going to come down to contest selection, as different players tend to show up more in GPP lineups vs. Cash. That said, the outlet which I have found to be best has this week's CB projected at 15% owned, which ranks inside the top 9 in the field.We're talking about a player who was red hot during the Fall, piling up good finishes with strokes gained numbers that were boosted by the lack of top end competition in the fields within many events he played. Even so, the iron play never proved to be a strength of this player throughout the good run. In fact, he's 1 of only 2 players projected in the top 20 of ownership that is actually losing strokes on approach over his last 36 rounds. It's not exactly by a small margin either, this player is averaging -1.7 strokes on approach per start. Another important thing about this week is understanding the importance of tournament reps at Riviera. Even though we saw it with Cameron Young last year, it's extremely rare that players are able to show up here and succeed without much from a course history standpoint. As we noted in the Heavy Petting Course Preview Pointers, 90% of the winners here since 2005 had at least 4 starts at the Genesis prior to actually winning. The greens are fast, undulating, and super difficult to figure out for players who are not familiar and can rely on past experiences around Riviera. This is one of those guys.It's an interesting course layout without a doubt, but I think what makes this event even more unusual is the course setup. Make no mistake, Tiger has had significant impact on the difficulty and setup of this tournament for some time now. The intention is for it to be hard, and provide players a proper test heading into preparation for Major Championships. I don't love the familiarity that our player has on tournaments with difficult scoring conditions, events that play -5 to -10 under par. They just don't have the experience, as most of their starts have been birdie-fests that ask a player to essentially aim and fire at every pin. This week...is not that.When looking at DataGolf, they are projecting this player has a 1.2% chance of winning this week. That's without factoring in course knowledge, course setup, and all the other factors we just listed above. It makes it hard to stomach laying 15% ownership on a player if you believe they have less than 1% chance of actually winning the golf tournament in my opinion. For those reasons, it's makes sense that the proper play may to be avoid this player all together and see if he is able to pop the balloons of the 15% who click his name.Making his debut here in the section of the article nobody wants to be in, Taylor Montgomery, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

Pre recorded messages at fast food restaurant drive thru's piss me off. It's even worse at CVS. The damn recorded lady talks forever. I just want to f'in order people. Stop with all the BS.If a hose is nearby, it's better to step in dog shit barefoot than it is with shoes on. I don't understand how high heals work for women, but they do. I still don't know why I need salt Iodized or not. Flowers are the worst Valentine's gift. Hey honey here's something that's gonna wither and die over time. Probably sooner than later. What a great metaphor for our love. Cheese is food glue, and that's why cheese is awesome.  Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy every moment that we get with Tiger Woods playing competitively and the beautiful test of golf we have this week at "The Riv". Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!