Genesis 22 Heavy Petting

Heavy Petting 🍑Genesis 2022

February 15, 2022

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

  • We've had 1 winner over 100/1 in the last 6 years. The winning score O/U is set at -12.5. It's been over that 3 of the last 6 years, but only once in the last 4. Tiger wants to set this thing up to be a challenge for the best in the world. Combine that with firm, fast and dry conditions...gonna be a great week.

  • Do NOT underestimate the importance of putting on these fast, slopey, tricky, pure POA green surfaces. It's one reason experience around here matters more than normal.

  • Stats in my model this week include: POA long term putting, SG:P thus far in 2022, SG:ATG, SG: BS at Riviera last 6 years, SG: APP & SG: OTT in 2022, Long and Short term Bogey Avoidance

  • Guys in the field that played at Riv for the 2017 US AM: Ghim, Zalatoris, Redman (2017 winner), Morikawa, Bobby Mac, Theegala, McNealy, Hodges, Young, Burns, & Niemann

  • DataGolf has Riviera near the very top in terms of courses where experience / course history play a decent role in success.

  • Kikuya grass is rather unique. It's sticky and difficult to chip out of. It's very common in Australia and South Africa. Torrey Pines is one of the few places that features Kikuya in the fairways and rough.

  • Per Justin Ray, recent winners here have averaged 2x more strokes gained around the green than the average event on the PGA TOUR.

  • The firmness will make this place play shorter than the card would indicate. We like the longer hitters more, but it certainly doesn't eliminate the shorter hitter if they stay in the fairway.

  • Riviera has consistently ranked among some of the hardest fairways and GIR to hit on the PGA TOUR

  • DataGolf ranks SG Metrics VS a player's expectation based on course fit. It's interesting because it can reveal cheaper/long shot players that tend to level up at a certain course. Here are the Top 10 for Riviera (Min 12 rds): Gooch, Homa, Ortiz, Hahn, KH, Rodgers, Tringale, Poston, DJ, & Scott.

  • The bottom 10 would be (Min 12 rds): Piercy, D.Lee, Reavie, Streb, Molinari, Thomas, Lahiri, Palmer, Ancer & Fowler

Last week's winner appeared in 5 of the 10 facts!1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Genesis: 1. Finau 2. Cam Smith 3. Homa 4. Rahm 5. Morikawa 6. DJ 7. Hovland 8. Tringale 9. Cantlay 10. Burns

2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on poa grass: 1. Clark 2. Smith 3. Putnam 4. Na 5. Kuchar 6. Spieth 7. Homa 8. McNealy 9. Rahm 10. Merritt

3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Rahm 2. List 3. Zalatoris 4. Im 5. Matsuyama 6. Bradley 7. JT 8. Hoge 9. Palmer 10. Munoz

4. On courses that are 7200-7400 yards, average to difficult scoring & firm/fast greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. McIIroy 2. Fowler 3. Rahm 4. DJ 5. Schauffele 6. Matsuyama 7. Garcia 8. Kuchar 9. Casey 10. Hahn

5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways, & average to difficult scoring: 1. JT 2. Morikawa 3. Matsuyama 4. McIIroy 5. DJ 6. Casey 7. Conners 8. Watson 9. Schauffele 10. Steele

6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Smith 2. McIIroy 3. Rahm 4. Cantlay 5. Scheffler 6. DJ 7. JT 8. Wise 9. Burns 10. Power

7. Historical GIR's gained @ Riviera (min 8 rds): 1. Scott 2. DJ 3. Finau 4. Hahn 5. Garcia 6. Schauffele 7. Morikawa 8. Watson 9. HV3 10. Bradley

8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1.Knox 2. Rahm 3. Scheffler 4. Zalatoris 5. Pendrith 6. Hadwin 7. Morikawa 8. List 9. NeSmith 10. Vegas

9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 200+, your top 10 in proximity: 1. Im 2. Palmer 3. JT 4. Niemann 5. Munoz 6. Buckley 7. Kokrak 8. Rahm 9. Pieters 10. Finau

10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Smith 2. Power 3. Gooch 4. Scheffler 5. Kim 6. Cantlay 7. McNealy 8. List 9. Im 10. Niemann

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