Genesis 22 Chalk Bomb

View this email in your browser

Unlike last week's 1.5 stroke advantage for the PM/AM wave, this week doesn't present any real edge for the players based on wave. The wind isn't enough of a factor either day to make moves.However, if you fancy yourself a first round leader bet or showdown play for Thursday, I'd give a slight bump to guys teeing off anytime past 845 or 9am. They start teeing off at 640 in the morning, and 48 degrees hits different than 57. The guys going off very first thing on Thursday will deal with a longer Riv given the ball won't be traveling as far in the cooler temps. 

Koepka +152 vs. Smith -192

This is a jaw dropping line considering the caliber of player Bruce Cupcake can be when he feels like showing up. The books and the H2H bettors are VERY bearish on Brooks this week based on not just the Cam Smith line, but others. He's a + money dog to Spieth, Willy Z, and Finau! 

Now, he actually opened as a slight favorite against Spieth, but has since moved to a decent dog in 2 sportsbooks. The Cam Smith line...he opened as a big dog and has since grown to an even bigger dog.

Brooks has a MC, T43, and T38 to his name at RIV (trending the right direction though). But if you didn't know that...wouldn't you completely buy into the fact that this place is built for him...? Let me lay it out.

Challenging course, O/U winning score at -12.5, Rewards length & accuracy off the tee, All around game required, Invitational status event hosted by Tiger (aka...this ain't the damn 3M Open), & the best tend to win here

Doesn't that sound like a venue where Koepka would turn up? I admit I was off of him last week based on recent play, but he showed up at Scottsdale gaining over 7 strokes ball striking and 6 strokes with the putter. 

Brooks is projected to fall between 5-10% in GPPs at only $9K on DraftKings. Isn't this a textbook Koepka play given that value in both price and ownership? I'm doing it. I'm sold. I'd take him in these + money matchups too. The value and his upside is just too great!

DJ +100 vs. JT -120

Now DJ is an interesting one this week as we discussed on the podcast. He's a major favorite in more than 1 sportsbook over Morikawa and Rory. Yet, he's a slight dog to JT here at a place he's completely owned in recent history. And none of his lines have moved much since opening with the exception of the matchup against Morikawa. Bettors have been pounding DJ on that line to stretch the gap even more over Kawa.

But JT is also interesting here. If you just consider where these lines stand in relation to each other, then one could infer that the books and the bettors would rank these 4; JT, DJ, Rory, and Kawa. Yet, JT is the lowest projected player in the bunch for DFS at 12-15%. DJ and Rory are projected among the top 5 highest owned as of now. JT has sucked here in the last 2 years, primarily due to an awful putting performance. But he was runner up here in 2019 and his ball striking right now is very hot. I like both of these guys, but JT could be another high upside pivot if the ownership stays at 15% or less.

Tringale -130 vs. Ancer +111

In the scrub division this week, I thought I'd let everyone know that the books and bettors are for sure in favor of one Cameron Tringale. He's opened and remains a heavy favorite over Abe "short king" Ancer as well as a guy I really like this week in Lanto Griffin (+105). 

At $7.3K on DraftKings, Tringale is coming in around 5-8% in ownership projections as some grow weary of the Tringale train pulls into the DFS station on a regular basis among the talking heads. Listen...he gets on my nerves too!

However, he's a West Coast specialist that prefers poa and checks the SG: Everywhere box more weeks than not on tour. He's made 9/10 cuts at RIV with 7 top 30 finishes and one T8. And while this is annoying...his form is good. 

His last 6 starts have gone; MC, 7, MC, 3, MC, 2. The long armed, hairy man does have upside. You can't argue with that. I like the leverage in DFS. I'll be a sucker for yet another week on the West Coast.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

Well, we finally didn't have a successful CB call last week as Xander finished T3. However, given my options at the top, I'm thinking the only real bomb I could've had success with was Hovland. I'm really glad I didn't pick Scheffler though.This is another scary week to make the call with such studs dominating the top end of ownership projections. But...I'm choosing to go with a guy that doesn't often check the "Strokes Gained Everywhere" box, and he's certainly never done it here. He just typically makes up for it by checking the "Holy Shit He Gained Eleventy Seven Strokes Ball Striking" box. Collin Morikawa has played 1 event stateside (T5 at the Sentry), but 2 over in the Middle East. In the Middle East, he finished T18 and T62. For those 2 events, he gained strokes off the tee, broke even on approach actually, lost strokes around the green and broke even putting. The Cali kid with the flushiest iron swing in the world is making his 3rd start at RIV and yea...he's gained 15 STROKES BALL STRIKING in just 2 starts here. All leading to a T43 and T26. Hmmm...? Why? Well because he's absolutely terrible chipping out of kikuya rough and putting on slopey, fast as shit poa greens.That's what I'm banking on this week for the 4th highest priced golfer in the field. Now, if he just breaks even chipping and putting, he'll win by 9. I don't think Kawa trunk slams on Friday, but I can see a path to a T20 or worse...in which case he likely won't hurt you if you fade him. At 16% (Top 8 highest) projected ownership, Collin Morikawa...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I work on a numeric keypad every single day and I still don’t know why we need the number lock function.I don’t like that toothpaste comes in a tube. Especially when you get down to the last little bit. What if I want it in a soap dispenser or something? I say we cancel tubes.I wonder why we still say “roll up or roll down your window” in the car but windows have been electric for quite some time. That said I have two electric windows in my truck that don’t work so I wish they had the rolling things.It’s amazing to me that my body can take a burger and some fries and turn it into more of my body. Why the hell can’t we have foot pedals to flush public toilets? Is that a plumbing nightmare or something?You know what one of the worst inventions ever was? Erasable pens. Especially for left handers.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the star-studded field we have at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

Forward