Fortinet HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Fortinet Championship

September 12, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.Just a few short weeks after the culmination of the 2022-2023 Season, we are right back at it with the start of the Fall Swing and new look PGA Tour season. We start this year the same way we did last year, in Napa, CA and Silverado Country Club for the Fortinet Championship. Max Homa is coming off back to back wins at this event and looking to go full Stricker before heading back to Italy to compete in the Ryder Cup.Here are some cliffnotes and things to keep in mind about the course this week:

  • We have a very short par 72 that won't inhibit the shorter players off the tee from competing. The fairways also tend to run out fairly well with as little rain as Napa generally gets towards the end of Summer.

  • The green complexes are smallish in size and have quite a bit of undulation and quirky slopes to them. They are a blend of Bent-grass and POA-Annua that typically run between 11-12 on the stimpmeter.

  • We have seen this become a week where the latest Korn Ferry grads and new players to the PGA Tour have competed well as they are amped up for their first start. You will see a few rookies sprinkled inside the top 10 and top 20 which could make for interesting positional bets.

  • Disregard SG: ARG this week; if they are missing GIR, they are already behind the 8 ball and are more likely to miss the cut than compete.

  • The rough is not overly penal and sometimes actually advantageous if you miss on the proper side which could leave you with a better angle to attach certain pin locations. Cameron Champ is on record with saying this in years past.

  • Silverado ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of average Driving Distance since the year 2015.

  • The par 4's are short and if you properly manage your tee shots, you will have a TON of wedges into greens.

  • This course comes down to how close you can stick your wedges and whether or not you show up with a hot putter.

  • Pay close attention to stats like Opportunities Gained this week as you are going to have to garner plenty of chances for birdie from inside 15 ft to win.

Here is the radar plot from DataGolf :

Here is the Approach Shot distribution from DG:

The Gambling Degen PGA TOUR Caddie

"Dynamite" Dean Emerson on: getting into the PGA TOUR caddie life, running a sports betting brand, gambling for over 40 years, Ryder Cup, and gamblers on TOUR.

1. Weighted Strokes Gained Approach Leaders over last 36 rounds played  : 1. Putnam  2. Streelman  3. Hubbard  4. Spaun  5. Thomas  6. Reavie  7. Cole  8. Todd  9. List  10. Davis2. Top 10 in DataGolf True SG vs. Expectation at Silverado : 1. Harrington  2. Percy  3. Theegala  4. Blair  5. Todd  6. Werenski  7. Higgs  8. Hubbard  9. Cook  10. Reavie3. Total Leaders in Strokes Gained Ballstriking over the last 24 rounds played :  1. Champ  2. Ghim  3. Spaun  4. Bhatia  5. Jaeger  6. Homa  7. List  8. Cone  9. Davis  10. Yu4. Leaders in SG: Total on short golf courses over last 24 rounds:  1. Thomas  2. Gerard  3. Montgomery  4. Simpson  5. Davis  6. Homa  7. Cole  8. Schmid  9. Kisner  10. Herbert5. Leaders in Good Drives Gained on short courses : 1. Stanley  2. Armour  3. Spaun  4. Yu  5. Lipsky  6. Wu  7. Redman  8. Percy  9. Laird  10. Reavie6. Birdie or Better Gained on courses with easier than normal scoring conditions L24: 1. Thomas  2. Wu  3. Montgomery  4. Cole  5. Higgs  6. Homa  7. Palmer  8. Kuest  9. Redman  10. Higgo7. SG: T2G Leaders on courses under 7200 yards L24 rounds: 1. Thomas  2. Davis  3. List  4. Reavie  5. Jaeger  6. Novak  7. Stanley  8. Gerard  9. Hubbard  10. Lipsky8. Top 10 in Fantasy Points gained over the last most recent 30 rounds played: 1. Schmid  2. Homa  3. Kuest  4. Davis  5. Ghim  6. Thomas  7. Cole  8. Jaeger  9. Eckroat  10. Reavoe9. Top 10 in Putting Leaders inside 20 ft over last 30 rounds:  1. Montgomery  2. Suh  3. Herbert  4. Baddeley  5. Bez  6. Cole  7. Hadley  8. Hall  9. Todd  10. Ryder10. Top 10 in Proximity to hole over last 36 rounds from inside 150 yards: 1. Moore  2. Hoffman  3. Noh  4. Stuard  5. Lebioda  6. Kizzire  7. Hall  8. Thomas  9. Lashley  10. Hadley

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