Fortinet Chalk 💣2021

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Not much to write about in terms of weather in Napa this week. The course will play fast and firm all week with dry, breezy conditions throughout. Conditions will be slightly calmer and maybe a touch softer for both morning waves, but also a bit chilly. There isn't a clear wave advantage for the first 2 rounds. We typically don't advise any first round leader bets unless there's a clear advantage. However, if you must...I like the guys going off around 9am to 10am tomorrow. Temps bump up to the 50s and the wind doesn't really change enough to make a big difference. 

Rahm -294 vs. Hideki +242

I chose this line to illustrate just how much the books believe in Jon Rahm this week. He's a Ron Jeremey size dick favorite over Deki bot! Rahm did WD from the PRO AM today citing stomach issues...and he didn't even show up to the course for his scheduled presser. However, if you're not on West Coast time, you should have time to check and see if he WD's before they tee off around 10amET. If Rahm tees it up, I believe he's doing so to win. He's got a new connection with Fortinet based on his agency and that could be the reason he's here. But, I see Rahm as a nasty killer if he tees it up. I don't see him as the "mail it in" kind of guy (a la DJ or Brooks). I wouldn't bet him if you had my nuts in a vice grip, but I'll rock with him in DFS whilst sprinkling in plenty of cheap guys at the bottom and KFT graduates making it to the big show.

Varner -162 vs. Leishman +138

This one and others involving HV3 really surprised me. I was expecting to see the books not loving HV3 as much as the DFS does at his projected 25% ownership. However, he's a favorite in all 5 matchups I could find on our most trusted, sharp sportsbook. The biggest disparity was the line with Leish. Yikes...Leish is $400 more on DK, but a massive dog to the books against HV3. Of the 5 matchups he was favored in, 3 of them were priced higher than him in DK (Munoz, Si Woo and Leish). My head tells me that HV3 is not the type of killer (at least he hasn't shown it to this point) to roster at $9.1K and 25% ownership, but damn if the books don't have me second guessing. 

Gooch -140 vs. Pereira +120

This matchup takes me from 6 to midnight real quick in my loins! The Gooch is LOOSE! I talked up Gooch on the podcast and put him on the betting card. I love him this week. He's on record with his affection towards Silverado and he checks a ton of boxes. He and Mito are both $8K on DK. Mito (a new Twitter DFS darling) is projected at 24%. Gooch...projected at 8%. A third of the ownership at the same DK price as a MASSIVE H2H favorite at a sharp book! It almost seems too good to be true. If you're looking for a few reasons why this may be the case: Gooch is 9th over the last 24 rounds in SG: APP (Mito 64th), Gooch appears to be a much better putter, and he's got experience here at Silverado (it's Mito's 1st time). Silverado can be a quirky course according to our caddie friends. Tighter fairways, doglegs, tree lined, and a bunch of undulation on the greens means a little experience could be worth a shot or two over the course of 4 days.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

I love Willy Z as much as the next guy, but I love him most in events where the winning score is around -12 or worse. He's proven he's a contender in tough, grind it out, par is your friend conditions. I think part of that has to do with the fact he doesn't have to make a bunch of birdies with the putter. While he's gained strokes putting his last 2 events thanks to a putter change/fix, he sucks putting historically. PLUS...if you're a big "proximity guy" (DB is not), then you're likely looking at the ranges where wedges come into play for Silverado this week as it's basically a wedge fest for the entire field. Well...Willy sucks with his wedges! According to FNGC, he's in the negative SG in every wedge range for his career and over the short term, but gains a ton of strokes with his 175 and longer clubs (hence the major championship performances). Over his last 5 events, he's  -.90 in SG: APP. Plus, I encourage you to look at his Birdies Gained numbers on FNGC over the short term. He's shockingly...not been a high birdie rate guy since The Masters, but he avoids bogeys with the best of the best (again...hence the majors performance).He's also $10,500 on DraftKings! He's a massive underdog in the betting market against Webb (who's $300 more & projected to be lower owned). AND, he's a dog to Kevin Na according to the books. You could save $500 in salary with Na and save about 7% points in ownership. Plus...one could argue Na's got more winning upside. At 20% (4th highest) projected ownership, William Patrick Zalatoris...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Why are people so bad at driving in the rain? It's ridiculous. It's like some rain devil god possesses people's minds and all of a sudden a few drops of rain causes people to become shitty drivers. It's just rain folks, stop acting like fireballs are coming out of the sky and you need to go 18 mph to avoid them. I mean damn, just calm down and drive properly. Be safe though. You know sometimes in life people just want to do nothing. What's so wrong with that? Why should I be shamed for being lazy if I truly just want to stare into space or do something that requires very little brain or physical activity. How do you know that's not healthy either? It could be a breakthrough in science and medical research that people need 30 minutes minimum of pure and unencumbered laziness per day.Growing up I was afraid of ghosts. Think I saw a few actually. Why was I afraid of them though? Well, probably because society creates this unfounded assumption that you should be afraid of ghosts. How unfair is that to ghosts? I'm sure there are plenty of friendly ones. F'in Casper the friendly ghost can't be the only one.It baffles me that Google was able to get someone to drive down pretty much every road on the entire planet earth. Those people get very little thanks either for it. Bunch of ungrateful google map users.   Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Cheers to you and here's to a great week in beautiful wine country for the Fortinet Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green!Bome! 

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