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There doesn't appear to be any sort of wave advantage as of this Wednesday afternoon. We don't see a reason to stack tee times for now. However, when we're dealing with West Coast POA putting surfaces, be aware for showdown or first round leader bets that the afternoon wave will always get the worse putting conditions. 7 of the last 8 first round leaders in Napa have come out of the AM wave.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Jason Day -128 ($7,900) vs Thomas Detry +106 ($8,600)

This first one is gross! First, I love Detry and I hate Day. Also, you always have to worry about the withdrawal possibility from Day which does make this play risky. However, we are back to the West Coast and POA mixed greens where Jason Day excels! On Fantasy National, if you select the last 50 rounds and sort by POA greens the number 2 ranked golfer, in DK points, is Jason Day.In terms of ownership, Detry is coming in around 10% where Day is coming in under 3%. Detry did have a nice showing last week, across the pond, with a 5th place finish at the BMW Championship. However, I don’t love the fact that he has to travel all the way from England to Napa AFTER playing in all 3 KFT Finals events. Give me the lower owned and lower priced Day here!

Gary Woodland -128 ($8,000) vs Taylor Montgomery - 102 ($8,500)

Similar to my first matchup. This is gross and I hate Gary Woodland. I absolutely never get this guy right. I stated above that the number 2 golfer on Fantasy National, when sorting the last 50 rounds on courses with POA greens, was Jason Day. The #1 ranked player is none other than Gary Woodland! He struggles with short game and around the green which you don’t need at Silverado. He ranks 1st in ball striking, 3rd T2G, 4th on approach, and 5th off the tee. These are very solid numbers for a golfer who has shown high upside finishes. In 2022, Woodland only made 11 of his 23 cuts but had 5 top finishes.Montgomery is ranging anywhere from 13-18% for ownership where Woodland is coming in under 5%. His ownership has been climbing all week. He was projected around 4% on Monday (then DB went crazy over him). I can’t imagine a world where I would be playing a chalky Korn Ferry graduate over Woodland here at a cheaper price.

Maverick McNealy -160 ($9,900) vs Sahith Theegala +127 ($10,000)

Both of these guys seem overpriced here at $9,900 and $10,000. McNealy has played this tournament the last five years. He has made the cut 4 out of 5 with a 2nd place finish last year. His other three finishes are below average with two T52’s and a T63. Theegala has made the cut the last two years at Silverado with a T14 and T47. Both players have really struggled over the past 12 rounds with both being outside the top 100 in T2G over that span.For me, this is strictly an ownership (McNealy around 10% and Theegala ranging from 15-18%) and Vegas odds play. I see both of these golfers being a safe play and similar options. However, give me the heavy favorite with less ownership here. The H2H oddssmakers really do not love TheeGawdla this week as he's a surprising dog in a handful of matchups.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The short break is over and golf is officially back for the new season! Swing season is always fun with everyone’s new Korn Ferry boys being elevated to the PGA Tour! Everyone has FOMO or wants to be the one who was on these guys first. Go listen to any of the podcasts put out this week. OMG Taylor Montgomery is sooo good! Did you know that Justin Suh was in the same class as Morikawa, Hovland, and Wolff? Who is this year's Cam Young?!? Did you see Carl Yuan’s swing?(Yes...I realize DB said half of those things on Monday)

I never would have thought that the easiest chalk bomb would come week 1, but here we are. The chalk bomb is Taylor Montgomery. As stated above, there is never a time I am playing a chalky Korn Ferry graduate at over 15%. Plus, when you consider the regular amount of variance we've had at this event, plus the lack of top end talent, gives us all the more reason to fade chalk (not just this week, but all Fall)If you love high upside, drop down to Nick Hardy, Adam Svensson, or Lee Hodges. At least all of those guys proved their upside last year and have a similar skill set as Montgomery. I am not saying that Montgomery won’t be a very good player this year, but do we all have to jump on this week one? I can’t argue he is a course fit this week so I am not going to bore you on the stats. It is as simple as I believe there are very similar type golfers at lower ownership and at a less price.

At +20% (top 4 highest) projected ownership, Taylor Montgomery,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

What the hell happened to quick sand? I mean, we used to always see people in movies and shows succumbing to this peril and now we never see it. It's time to bring back quick sand.Why aren't there more green birds? What category is an Olive? I mean is it a fruit? Like a berry or something? It's amazing to me how long Saltine crackers can go without getting stale. Even opened packages. I think we take for granted that there doesn't seem to ever be a spider in most spider webs we walk into. Also, walking into a spider web is the worst.Is the muppet Gonzo a fly? Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Fortinet Championship in beautiful Napa Valley this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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