Forth Worth

Fort Worth 

Welcome to the tournament with no sponsor! From this point forward we'll donate a Lincoln to the PGA & this tournament will now be know as the Tour Junkies Open. I try to not rehash stuff that you'll see/hear at 30 other places but a couple notes about the course this week. It's one of the rare tough courses that isn't a bombers course. The Honda (PGA National) is a similar 'type' of fit, although the courses are penal in different ways. Back tested metrics & the eye test of past leaderboards will lead you to the same conclusion for one of the stronger course 'fits' you see all year. As you can see from the picture above, every hole is lined with trouble, and because these are some of the smaller greens on tour, accuracy, strong approach/GIR, and a strong short game have historically gotten the job done here. 

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

So last week we introduced this new segment & had some great feedback, if you missed last week, this is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week:So just like last week, the books set a very interesting line for the top two guys. Spieth is once again the top priced player in the field and the books have him as a substantial favorite against the guy with the 2nd highest win odds. On paper Spieth is certainly a better fit for the course, but this sure seems like a substantial value to get Rahm at +125 even with Spieth's elite course history. Jordan's tee to green game was again great last week, and he once again showed that he's no longer an elite putter, & is in fact a below average putter (stop me if you've heard this, but he lost 4 strokes putting last week, that makes 9 of his last 11, & 5 straight events of losing strokes with the flatstick).This line might surprise quite a lot of you out there. Webb fits the course fit to a 'T' and has finished 3rd & 5th here his last two times out, not to mention he's fresh off winning the Players in dominate fashion. Yet he's a pretty good dog to Mr. Rose who has quietly been having a very nice season. If you look closer at the numbers, JR, even though he's right on the edge of what I would call a 'bomber,' is a surprisingly good course fit here as well. His driving accuracy numbers for the last 4 tourneys he's played are as follows: 75%, 66%, 73%, 73%.....that's about as good as it gets for guys that average 300 yards. And like we've touched on in player stereotypes that people get wrong, JR has been elite around the greens for the vast majority of his career. Rose is currently projected to be the lowest owned of the 10k & up guys, the books are saying he shouldn't be. This line jumped out at me because the ownership for both these guys is heading in the opposite direction from the last time they played. Makes me think of the Mike Jones rap song, 'Back then they didn't want me now I'm hot hoes all up on me!' Danny Lee goes from 0.5% owned all season to about 30-40 times that ownership this week thanks to one good finish, Beau Hossler goes from 20% owned last week to at least half that this week. As you'll notice -150 is about as high as the books will set the vast majority of lines and this week they like the baby faced Texan again. Other interesting lines:Rose -150 v Koepka +130Cantlay -140 v Walker +120DeChambeau -145 v Kisner +125Stricker -165 v Kirk +140

If any of these prices look good to you, check out our boys over at mybookie who have really upped their golf offerings thanks in large part to David & Pat. They now offer everything from first round leader bets, matchups, top 10's, futures, and of course outrights to win. Just click the button below and use promo code:'TOURJUNKIES' for a 50% deposit bonus!

THE Chalk Bomb

We've already alluded to it this week's guy but lets dig a little deeper. Spoiler alert, the chalk bomb this week is Danny Lee. As we discuss all the time, form comes and goes with the wind and we never really understand how or why the vast majority of the time. Lets look at Danny Lee's tee to green totals for each event in 2018:

'One of these is not like the others.' I love a good comeback story just as much as the next guy, but I need to see a little more than 1 little blimp on the radar before I jump back on board. At the Players, Danny also just happened to have his highest strokes gained around the greens & putting totals of the year in the same week. This fits the mold for ideal fade conditions, way higher ownership from the previous event, price increase of $700, coming off the best around the green and putting week of the year & only the second time all year that he's gained strokes tee to green. PS. I'm a big believer in the concept of 'skin in the game' (also a great book by my favorite author), several weeks there are guys that I would like to make the chalk bomb, but if I'm personally not willing to fade the guy 100%, then I don't make him the chalk bomb, simple as that. I can't in good conscience tell everyone how bad a play someone is then go and play him myself. Just wanted to make that clear that I ride or die with yall. #BomePPS. Shout out to Pat Perez for this great pic of Danny Lee

Scratch That Itch to Learn Your 10 Facts 

1. 6 of the top 10 players at last years event gained less than 1 stroke off the tee total, with 4 of those 6 actually losing strokes off the tee. 2. T2G leaders from last years event: 1. Rahm 2. Brown 3. Lee 4. Piercy 5. Kisner 6. Hoffman 7. Blixt 8. Spieth 9. Cink 10. Kuchar3. T2G leaders from last week that are playing this week (in order of strokes gained) 1. Scott 2. Wise 3. Spaun 4. Spieth 5. Tway 6. Na 7. Matt Jones 8. CT Pan 9. Duncan 10. Hahn4. Strokes gained putting leaders from last week (in order of strokes gained) 1. Fathauer 2. Haas 3. Power 4. Wise 5. Knox 6. Gribble 7. Thompson 8. Hossler 9. Sabbatini 10. Blaum5. Top 10 in Driving Accuracy the last 6 weeks (relevant guys): 1. Ben Crane 2. Steve Stricker 3. Rose 4. Henley 5. Chez 6. Lingmerth 7. CT Pan 8. Pat Perez 9. Spieth 10. Snedeker6. Top 10 strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds: 1. Grillo 2. Spieth 3. Walker 4. DeChambeau 5. Piercy 6. Spaun 7. Duncan 8. Knox 9. Niemann 10. Adam Scott7. Top 10 guys that putt worse on Bentgrass as compared to other grasses, in order of terribleness: 1. Spaun (he really doesn't like bentgrass, its a shame w/ his recent form to) 2. Ollie 3. Hadley 4. Murray 5. Kizzire 6. Kirk (also surprising since he's a past champ) 7. Kokrak 8. Bryan 9. Garnett 10. Watney8. Scott Piercy is basically Jordan Spieth lite right now....just playing excellent tee to green and loses strokes putting like every round. Both just have to break even with the flatstick to have nice weeks9. 3 guys that are really anti-course fits but keep popping up for me are: 1. Rahm 2. Xander 3. Watney (could really throw Cantlay in there as well)10. For those of you that don't actually watch golf, Adam Scott has officially gone back to the long putter, & he gained strokes putting in two of the three events so far. Not a great course fit this week but I'm extremely interested moving forward as his approach game seems to be coming back as well

WIN A FREE M2 DRIVER!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Fore ($4), Best Ball ($8), or Dogleg ($33) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TourJunkies Avatar