The Farmers Insurance Open 2024 Chalk 💣

Torrey Pines is famous for occasional wacky weather years, but this week on the SoCal coast is looking IDEAL for scoring conditions. A heavy dose of rain on Monday softened the North and South Courses, and with dry skies and little to no wind expected throughout the week, these pros are licking their chops.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Min Woo Lee -117 ($9100) vs. Ludvig Aberg -104 ($9700)

Looks like the sharp books are letting Min Woo cook this week. The Aussie is a significant favorite in sharp, 72-hole h2h markets over everyone’s darling Ludvig Aberg despite a $600 difference in DFS pricing.

Both players are making their debut appearance at Torrey, so there’s no course history to lean on here. This difference might just be down to recent form, as Ludvig has vastly underperformed in his first two starts of the year while Lee is coming off a respectable T21 at the Amex last week.

Ownership projections are neck-and-neck between these two. Our Nut Hut data shows both Lee and Aberg will be chalky around 17% ownership. For those looking for an edge, perhaps letting Min Woo cook is the play.

Luke List -148 ($7800) vs. Justin Rose +118 ($8300)

DB certainly hasn’t forgotten about Luke Lists' Farmers win back in 2022, and clearly, the sharp books haven’t either. He is $500 cheaper in DFS than Justin Rose, but oddsmakers have the Augusta native as a heavy favorite over the Englishman in a tournament-long matchup.

But while recency bias leans toward List, we should note that Rosie also has an excellent record at Torrey including a win of his own in 2019. Both players have over a decade of experience around this track, but who is the better DFS play?

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, List is certainly the more popular play at roughly 13% versus Rose at around 9.5%.

Beau Hossler -123 ($7600) vs. Patrick Rodgers +101 ($7700)

Lastly, we’ve got a couple of similarly-priced options in the $7k range that the sharp books have valued a bit differently as Beau Hossler is a -123 favorite over Patrick Rodgers despite the slightly less expensive price tag.

These guys have shockingly similar results at Torrey Pines. Seriously, here are each of their last four finishes at the Farmers:

Hossler: Cut, Cut, Cut, T9
Rodgers: Cut, T62, Cut, T9
Kinda freaky huh?

The pair are also looking at similar ownership projections as our models are showing around 10% for Hossler and 7.5% for Rodgers.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

It takes three times to form a habit, right? Well, yours truly is really hoping to avoid a third straight dud this week. I took the risk on fading Xander at the Amex (totally stupid event btw), and the Olympic Gold Medalist earned a T3 that ultimately paid off those who bit the chalk and spent the $10,900 to pick him in DFS.

So we turn to the first real event of the California Swing and Torrey Pines for a tournament that thankfully does NOT include a bunch of grandmas firing at easy pins as opposed to last week’s hit-and-giggle pro-am.

This week’s Chalk Bomb is a guy who’s yet to find his stride so far in 2024, and I don’t expect him to do so at Torrey Pines this week. Simply put, this guy hasn’t been performing in multiple areas of his game, and yet he’s once again projected to be featured in over 15% of DFS lineups.

According to our model at Bet the Number, this week’s Chalk Bomb ranks poorly compared to the field in several categories that will be important at Torrey. He’s 60th (in the field!!) in SG: APP, 35th in SG: ARG, and 52nd in SG: Putting on Poa greens.

This player also lacks any course experience at Torrey with no prior appearances, and he has little to show for recent form with a T30 and a T47 in his last two starts — not good enough for a player with the sixth-highest DFS price tag this week.

Lastly, despite being more expensive than the likes of Tony Finau and Min Woo Lee, the Chalk Bomb is a significant underdog to both in 72-hole head-to-head markets.

Could this be the week he bounces back and proves last fall wasn’t a fluke? Knowing my luck, probably so. But I’m not too scared to tell Ludvig Aberg he is the Chalk Bomb for the Farmers!

Three Amigos was a decent movie. You will never convince me though that El Guapo shouldn’t have had his own feature film afterwards.

Why does no one seem to feel bad for the flashlight makers since the iPhone added that feature?

I don’t understand why butter knives are so prevalent in a utensil set. They only do like one thing well. I mean, fine you can spread things but you can’t cut worth a damn. Stupid butter knives.

There is a point in everyone’s life when one of their kitchen drawers transitioned from a nice organized drawer to a junk drawer. And then, you can never go back. That drawer will always be the junk drawer. Amen.

Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the Farmers at challenging Torrey Pines. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!