Farmers Insurance Open 2023 HP

HP 🍑 for The Farmers Insurance Open

January 24, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

We're firmly in the middle of course rotation SZN with another 2 course setup on tap for this week followed by 3 courses next week. Again, the absence of shot-tracker and adequate coverage will be frustrating at times, but at least we have old reliable in Torrey Pines which we are all familiar with. It's wise to focus the majority of your energy this week on the beefy South Course, which they will play 3 rounds at, and also ranked as the longest course of the PGA season last year which included the Major Championships. Better bring the Driver this week! Also,

WEDNESDAY START THIS WEEK!

When looking through our notes, Torrey can be fairly predictable in terms of the traits that often correlate to success. Many of the holes play annoyingly similar in that they ask you to execute nearly identical shots over and over again. It's like the 3-point contest of professional golf tournaments, can you hit it far and straight and make this shot 15 times today? It's hardly going to churn out a champion that is the most well rounded and complete player, but if you have a guy who crushes his long irons and can hammer it off the tee, they should set up well this week. Here are some recent trends.

  • 11 of the last 13 winners had odds of 55/1 or shorter pre tournaments (List was exception last year at 80-1)

  • Winning score between -13 and -16 based on current weather projections

  • South consistently ranks as one of the harder courses on the PGA TOUR year after year. North consistently ranks one of the easiest.

  • South course features pure, West coast, bumpy ass POA. Guys better have a good attitude about POA. North course is pure bent.

  • Rough is Kikuya and rather sticky. Aussies & South Africans tend to be comfy on kikuya.

  • This tournament sees below average fairways hit and GIR hit. Scrambling is going to play a factor, but obviously would prefer to be as long and straight off the tee as possible.

  • Distance and a higher ball flight would be a nice advantage this week.

  • Rahm was the last guy to win in his 1st tournament start at Torrey in like 50+ years. Experience tends to prove more useful here than maybe the average tour stop

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for the South Course at Torrey Pines:

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 12 rounds) at Torrey Pines South: Rodgers, Atwal, Thompson, Spaun, Griffin, Streb, Stallings, List

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 12rounds) at Torrey Pines South: O'Hair, Frittelli, Werenski, Lee, Hahn, Piercy, Fowler, Byrd, Grillo

DG Draftkings Optimal Lineup: Rahm, Montgomery, Burmester, Gordon, Rodgers, Vegas

2 DFS Sleepers for the Farmers Insurance Open

DB's taken an early look at ownership projections around the DFS space, and he's attempting to sell you on 2 names with upside and high ownership leverage in GPP tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.2 Names in 12 Minutes. Click below & see if DB sells ya!

1. True SG: OTT over the last 6 months: 1. Rahm  2. Yu  3. Im  4. Cone  5. Finau  6. Pendrith  7. Buckley  8. Semikawa  9. Zalatoris  10. Gordon2. Fantasy Points gained on the field last 36 rounds: 1. Rahm  2. Finau  3. Montgomery  4. Detry  5. Schauffele  6. Homa  7. Im  8. Yu  9. Zalatoris  10. Lower3. Proximity Leaders last 50 rounds from 200+ yards:  1. Schauffele  2. Im  3. Woodland  4. Steele  5. Grillo  6. Homa  7. Kitayama  8. Clark  9. Suh  10. Morikawa4. Leaders in Total SG Adjustment for Course Fit at Torrey Pines via DataGolf: 1. Matthews  2. Rahm  3. Burmester  4. Clark  5. Mullinax  6. Thomas  7. An  8. Westmoreland  9. Bramlett  10. Pendrith5. Top 10 in SG: ARG on West Coast POA (Torrey South, Riviera, Pebble) : 1. Byrd  2. Fowler  3. Noh  4. Baddeley  5. Sabbatini  6. Si Woo Kim  7. Rodfgers  8. Streb  9. McNealy  10. Day6. Top 10 in Opportunities Gained in the last 36 rounds: 1. Steele  2. Kitayama  3. C. Davis  4. Si Woo Kim  5. Schauffele  6. Zalatoris  7. Smalley  8. Thomas  9. Finau  10. Morikawa7. Top 10 Players in Driving Distance OTT last 36 rounds: 1. Matthews  2. Schmid  3. Clark  4. Detry  5. Champ  6. Pendrith  7. Burmester  8. Westmoreland  9. Tarren  10. Vegas8. Top 10 Players in weighted Strokes Gained Total in difficult scoring conditions: .1 Alexander  2. Griffin  3. Rahm  4. Morikawa  5. Day  6. Zalatoris  7. Rose  8. Schauffele  9. Fowler  10. Smalley9. Top 10 in GIR gained in diffucult scoring conditions over the last 36 rounds: 1. Rahm  2. Smalley  3. Schauffele  4. Lebioda  5. Rodgers  6. List  7. Im  8. Morikawa  9. Steele  10. Schenk10. Top 10 in Fantasy Projected Points for the Farmers via datagolf: 1. Rahm  2. Schauffele  3. Finau  4. Zalatoris  5. Thomas  6. Im  7. Morikawa  8. Montgomery  9. Homa  10. Day

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