US Open Preview?

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

So I got to play Torrey Pines about a year ago, and the only thing that kept popping into my head constantly (besides the pure beauty of the place), was how in the f#%* does Brandt F#$%ing Snedeker have good course history here?? I tried to make lots of mental notes knowing that I was playing it about as close as one could before they handed the course over to the PGA tour.The opening 4 holes have to be 4 of the best in all of golf. You play right up against the ocean cliffs for the length of all four with Pacific Beach/La Jolla as the backdrop. It is ridiculously long. We played from the 'member' tees which measure almost 6700 yards, and the fellas this week are playing almost 1000 yards behind that! I drove the ball fairly well all-day but certainly hit my fair share of 3 woods & hybrids into the greens, and it shouldn't be much different for these guys as 200+ yards is far & away the biggest approach shot bucket. The rough was already fairly high, 3-3.5 inches, and seeing as how I only hit 50% of my fairways this day I had quite a bit of practice playing from said rough. Below is a pic of me standing in the rough (about 4.5 inches to the top of my shoe) Something that I found interesting though was of all those shots, I only found myself in 2 spots where the rough was extremely penal. I'm not sure if it's just the combo of the kikuyu with overseeded rye or what, but generally, I didn't have a huge issue getting my clubface to the back of the ball. It's certainly an issue with being able to get spin on the ball around the greens but again I came away VERY surprised that the rough was not more penal than it was (aka the ball usually sat up). Fast forward 3 weeks after I played it, and the guy that was DEAD LAST in the field in fairways hit won the event (Marc Leishman). So I really think my theory about the rough is (mostly) true. I generally dislike 'Penal' style courses because if they are really long the green complexes will generally be dull/flat, but I was pleasantly surprised at the amount of slope in the greens, and on some holes, there is a LOT of slope. It was my first time playing on Poa greens and to be quite honest, to me they just played like regular bentgrass greens. If you brought your ball in high or had good spin on the ball, it generally stopped right where it landed. I don't remember seeing much 'bump' from the poa or having any putts roll offline. They've added some key fairways bunkers that I test drove (see what I did there) on several holes because you know playing out of the fairway is just boring. I've seen players bitching about them which is a good sign that means they are in play for most of the field. To sum it up for DFS/betting purposes: Length, which is always helpful, but more important than that is long iron/hybrid/wood play (see: length). I do think accuracy is helpful but not a requirement because everyone will miss a lot of fairways. Target good bentgrass/poa putters that like fast greens. Once you really break it down you can actually see how a Snedeker can play well here because the average proximity to the hole is greater, which means more putts for the field, which means good putters also have an edge. Weather/Waves advantage: The North course post remodel has still averaged about 2.5 strokes easier than the South, so if your guy ain't scoring on the North, your probably SOL. Below is the weather/wind forecast for La-Ja-La ( La Jolla)...it will be an interesting split for sure. My best guess is that you'll want your guys playing the North course early Thursday. BUT if there's a rain delay of any kind Friday I could also see the late Friday wave North guys having a nice edge. Most likely I will have dedicated blocks of lineups for both draws. 

(Image from DataGolf) Once again the data confirms pretty much everything I said above, distance and good putting are the 2 big edges at Torrey South. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Davis vs. Watson

Davis -111 vs. Watson -111

We lead off last week in this space with Cam Davis, & we're doing it again. Fresh off a new career high finish at the Am Ex, the books have made Cam a pickem against Bubba which really caught my eye. Both guys made the 10 facts multiple times this week, so lets take a closer look. As we pointed out last week, Cam Davis is once again #1 in this loaded field for birdie or better the last 50 rounds. He'e #3 in the field in par 5 scoring, and obviously he's a DK value being a pick em against someone $900 cheaper than him. So now is where I tell you to fa-get-about-it!. Do you know who was #1 in strokes gained tee to green last year at the Farmers? Bubba. You know who the historical GIR leader is at Torrey South? Bubba. You know who is #1 in the course fit model this week for ball striking? Bubba. You know who's best putting surface is far & away poa? Bubba. I doubt he goes overlooked this week, but I love him as a pickem against Cam coming off his best finish, and given equal ownership I prefer him in DFS as well. Just in case you needed more, Cam's worse putting surface is poa, and he's 128th in the field in double bogey avoidance on a tough course in what should be tough conditions. 

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MATCHUP 2

Scott vs. Day

Scott -110 vs. Day -106

The battle of the Aussies! Another interesting line as the books have Scott as an ever so slight favorite in the H2H markets. Both guys also made the 10 facts 3 separate times Day: Historical GIR leaders at Torrey, custom model total strokes gained, & custom model ball-striking Scott: Custom model total strokes gained, custom model ball striking, and historical GIR leaders at Torrey (I realize those are the same 3 after I wrote it). It really boils down to form for these two. Yes, I know Day hasn't played since the end of November so it's certainly not true 'recent form', but his ball-striking was largely terrible at the end of the season, losing strokes tee to green in 7 of his last 8 events. For Scott, we at least have something to work with as he had a couple of his 'best ball-striking rounds ever' at the TOC where he hit 94%! of his greens in reg, then backed it up with 80% at the Sony, both elite numbers. The good news too is that he did in fact break even with the putter at the Sony, worth mentioning because Poa is the lone surface he gains strokes on. 

MATCHUP 3

Rahm vs. McIIroy

Rahm -124 vs. McIIroy +106

Not that I think the H2H price is interesting because that's about where I would have set it, but I wanted to take a closer look at the 2 highest priced guys who I expect will both be highly owned. Both are mentioned in the 10 stats 5 times each as it seems Torrey was made for these guy's games. Rory is the more interesting case to me though. He's played here twice with a 3rd & 5th place finish, but there's a major thing to take into consideration. Both those years it was his 1st start back for that calendar year. This year, he's flying from the other side of the world to get here which by my rough calculation is about an 11 or 12-hour difference in time zone. I've written about this a lot in the past, and while there are no 'strokes gained good night sleep' stats out there, it absolutely impacts the players. Dustin Johnson is a great example of this. In the previous 2 years he played in the Saudi event, finished 1st and 2nd, then flew all the way to Cali the next week to finish 45th & 32nd. Now to be clear I'm not saying Rory can't play well, but you need to shave a full half stroke per day off his projections. Over Rahm & Rory's last 20 events, they have gained 5.1 & 5 strokes on the field tee to green on average. Where I think Rahm has a distinct advantage is the putter. Poa is far & away his best putting surface, and he already gains about twice as many strokes with the flat stick per event than Rory. 

Other interesting lines:CH3 -122 vs. Ortiz +104Schauffele -130 vs. Finau +112Horschel -115 vs. Zalatoris -101English -120 vs. Matsuyama +103Conners -119 vs. Oosthuizen +102Hovland -130 vs. Scheffler +111Koepka -155 vs. Leishman +132Fowler -109 vs. Woodland -107 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• In full disclosure I went back & forth literally 100 times this week, it could have been several players

• This guy is a head to head pickem or underdog in all his head to head matchups

• Over a 17 round sample size, which is high for Torrey South, he's lost total strokes off the tee

• This guy is NOT a good putter, but over that same 17 round stretch, he's actually gained strokes putting

• His course history is quite the mixed bag. Averaging well below field average in GIR's hit 3 out of his last 7 tries

• He's in what I would consider the worst part of the weather draw

• His strokes gained falls off a cliff in windy conditions 

• In just his last 2 starts, he lost an unreal 13.5 strokes putting

• And guess what? In windy conditions, his putting is even worse!

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 51st in the field in birdies gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 35th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 50th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 34th in the field in DK points scored

• Over the last 4 times he's played here, he's averaged under his putts per round average all 4 times, despite the field averaging more putts per round

At 19.2% actual lineups generated % on Fantasy National (4th highest), Hidekiiiiiiii Mastuyama, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I tell you what I have a problem with. Fruit in salads. And I’m not talking about tomatoes (actually considered vegetables by nutritionist, FYI), I’m talking berries and apples and shit. It’s just not right and it’s gross. You know who I found out this week actually likes fruit in his salad? David Barnett #CrazyPerson

My kids love McDonald’s breakfast. It’s pretty much a once a week thing around here. That said, McD’s loves to put these little butter packets in the bag. Let me tell you something about these butter packets. The corners are sharp as hell. They’re like f’in small chinese stars if you ask me. Just a warning.

I’m left-handed in almost everything I do but like the mouse on the right side of my computer so I can use my right hand. Is this normal behavior?

Speaking of normal behavior. Cold leftover chicken is better than hot fresh chicken. Especially when it’s fried. Yep, I just said that 

Chalk Bomb Ben

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That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!