Farmers Insurance Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Farmers Insurance Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

January 23, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines 

Pro-Am/Tiger SZN

We've got another multi course setup this week that has historically been great for waves/weather edges. Right now there doesn't look to be a huge weather edge anywhere but things can change quickly on the ocean. Pay extra close attention to when your players are on the North course as they only get one shot at it all week (more on that in the 10 facts) & it's critical to shoot a good score. Since the 2016 redesign on the North course the disparity isn't quite what it once was, but it still averages about a stroke and half easier than the South Course. Last year Jason Day shot a 64 on the North course which accounted for 80% of his -10 winning score. You also might have heard that Eldrick Woods is here teeing it up for the first time in 2019. The best part about Tiger playing in any non-major event is that DraftKings actually gets their shit together and makes the GPP's bigger. Most of the contest this week are a good 30-40% bigger than last week, though several are extremely top heavy. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Berger vs. Horschel 

This isn't a matchup that many are going to look at, but I do want to highlight a couple things about Berger in particular. 2018 was mostly a lost year for him as he had literally 1 top 10 all season, and only year removed from a win & 3 other close calls. If you dig into his course history he's got a 24th & 2 MC's...but you'll notice that his driving accuracy was incredibly bad every year (like 32% bad) as well as his putting. Last week he had one of his better driving performances in a while, hitting 73% of his fairways and averaging 26 putts per round. BillyHo is also interesting because his course history is mediocre at best, but when you look at his underlying numbers he's really played quite well tee to green and has just never put together a good putting performance. Both are cheap this week and I would be shocked if either is above 10% owned. 

MATCHUP 2

Cam Smith vs Woodland

So Woodland is a fairly big favorite over Cam Smith this week despite only being $200 more expensive, but let me explain why I took Cam in our weekly betting article over on One Groove Low. First, I love the betting price you get on him at +150. Second, his game has had a renaissance of sorts the last couple of years. In 2016 he averaged a mere 286 off the tee (very short for PGA players), and in 2018 his average drive was just below 300 yards (above average). He's always had one of the best short games on tour, currently ranking 10th in the field over his last 100 rounds in strokes gained around the greens and he's top 5 in putts per round over the last calendar year. Woodland on the other hand is basically the exact opposite, always ranking high in the ball striking stats and generally near the bottom of any short game stat. In a rare week where scrambling is a key stat give me the guy that I know can get up & down. 

MATCHUP 3

Cantlay vs. CH3

There's a ton of lines this week that really jump out at you, and this one is no different. From my vantage point CH3 has to have the highest floor of anyone in the field. He's 16 for 16 in made cuts here which is just unreal, and since 2013 he's logged 4 top 10's. And somehow, he's the head to head underdog against TJ favorite Patrick Cantlay who in his two attempts here has a missed cut and a 51st. If you read last week you knew I was high on CH3, and despite leading the field in GIR last week (85%!) he had a terrible putting week to go along with a terrible chipping week (though he's usually solid in both). But guess who was 2nd in the field in GIR's last week? That's right, Mr. Cantlay! For betting give me CH3 this week, and for DFS give me Cantlay as I think he's going to really fly under the radar. 

MATCHUP 4

Finau vs. X

We certainly couldn't go this entire section without talking about the chalk of the week Tony Finau. I tried to make a fade case for him this week and couldn't put much together. Yea, anyone owned over 25% should be an auto-fade no matter what, but other than just the pure math side that's the only real case I can make. X has been the hottest golfer of the planet recently, and sometime this week I saw that if you only took the world rankings points from the last 6 months of play, X is actually the #1 player in the world. And even after being the #1 player in the world for the last 6 months, he's STILL an underdog to Finau. I'll say one note about why X, who has been on an unreal run in said time span is STILL flying under the radar....his 6th place finish at the US Open, no SG data, his 2nd place finish at the British, no SG data, his win at the HSBC, no SG data. Sooooo.....if your just looking at his strokes gained tee to green the last 50 rounds, he's 44th in the field (missing all the data from above), but if you look at his TOTAL strokes gained (it's actually measured at those events) he's 9th in the field. 

MATCHUP 5

Tiger vs. Rory

Everyone knows that Tiger has done some winning here at Torrey Pines. Crazy to think he has won at this one location more than Rickie Fowler, Webb, BillyHo, JB Holmes, Dufner, Jimmy Walker, Leishman, Perez, Moore, Donald, Cink, and Bill Haas have in TOTAL career wins. Apparently the books agree with DB's take from the podcast this week that Rory has been 'working on his game.' I figured that Rory would be the favorite but a -150 favorite seems pretty steep considering that's implied odds of Rory winning head to head 60% of the time. Something that I don't really remember anyone talking about last year was just how good Tiger's short game was all year. He's literally #1 in the field in scrambling percentage over the last calendar year and 6th in putts per round. It's probably another case of give me Tiger in the betting markets and Rory in DFS, mostly for ownership purposes. 

MyBookie leads the way in Golf betting, NFL, NBA, MLB & even betting on the next Pope, Justin Bieber's best man & more!

Stats about our boy this week:

  • At last year's Farmer's Insurance, this guy gained 5.1 strokes putting, his highest total all year which was almost double his 2nd best putting performance of 2018. 

  • Our boy is poor putter if you couldn't already tell. He ranks 7th to last in putts per round over the last calendar year, and is in the bottom 100 in strokes gained the last 50 rounds

  • And did I mention that Poa just happens to be his worst surface?

  • Torrey Pines is an extremely difficult course, and our boys avg strokes gained by round difficulty goes down as the difficulty goes up

  • He also happens to have one of the worst short games in the field, ranking 132rd in strokes gained around the green

  • Despite being a long hitter and having a top 15 price tag, he's 26th in DK points on courses over 7400 yards the last 50 rounds

  • His last event he lost strokes off the tee, around the green, and putting

  • Par 3 scoring rated as one of the best metrics this week in my back-testing, our boy is 8th worst in the field over the last calendar year in par 3 scoring

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 22.1% this week....Gary Woodland, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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 1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Farmers Insurance (remember we don't get SG data from the North course): 

1. Hoge 2. Garrigus 3. Bradley 4. Noren 5. Goosen 6. Grillo 7. List 8. CH3 9. Cantlay 10. Palmer

2. 

The last

 

8 winners here: 

have played the North course in their 2nd round....it's certainly possible that it's just statistical noise, but each year that this keeps happening gives more credence to there being something to it

3. I made a different custom model that focuses on ONLY year long stats since recent form doesn't really exist yet:

1. Rose 2. Rahm 3. Finau 4. Cantlay 5. Rory 6. Woods 7. Fowler 8. X 9. Day 10. Kokrak

4. 

Strokes gained putting leaders on Poa the last 50 rounds:

1. Day 2. M. Kim 3. Ortiz 4. Walker 5. Spieth 6. Mahan 7. Swafford 8. Harman 9. Hoffman 10. Hossler

5.

Your top 10 in GIR's hit at Torrey Pines:

 *small sample sizes apply 1. Noren 2. Cink 3. Bradley 4. McCarthy 5. Ryder 6. Day 7. Kokrak 8. Rose 9. Spieth 10. Watney

6.

 Since this is one of the strongest test these pro's face all year, your top 10 in bogey avoidance the last calendar year are:

 

1. Harman 2. Scott 3. Si Woo 4. Hoffman 5. Steel 6. Grace 7. X 8. Harkins 9. Day 10. Berger

7.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' good course history

1. CH3 (I know he's not sneaky, but his history is unreal. 16 for 16 cuts made) 2. English 3. Holmes 4. Spaun 5. Steele 6. Palmer 7. Walker 8. Streb 9. Perez 10. Bradley

8.

According to DataGolf, 

strokes gained off the tee are far less important at Torrey Pines South than on the average PGA tour stop (by almost 30%)

9. 

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking (OTT+APP) at Torrey South (min 4 rounds)  :

1. Bradley 2. Day 3. Leishman 4. Cink 5. Woodland 6. CH3 7. Haas 8. Rahm 9. Hoffman 10. Berger

10.

If I make a custom model that only counts long courses, difficult courses, on Poa/bent greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds are:  

1. Spieth 2. Palmer 3. Day 4. Matsuyama 5. Snedeker 6. Holmes 7. Rory 8. Bradley 9. Grillo 10. Rose

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"When all else fails. Drink 4 Tito's and clubs. Do that after you set your lineups though. Trust me."

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