View this email in your browser

Click Below for Free Betting & DraftKings Content

As you can see, Round 1 tomorrow will be a non issue as the weather looks perfect for scoring. However, round 2 on Thursday is looking rather gusty for really everyone, but especially those going out later in the 2 hour wave. Remember, the waves are only from 9am - 11am each day. I've been watching the weather the last 24 hours and the wind forecast for Thursday has changed somewhat, so continue to monitor up until lineup lock as late as you can.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Justin Thomas -122 ($9400) vs. Collin Morikawa +107 ($10,000)

These are the types of matchups I look for in terms of analyzing discrepancies between the H2H matchup odds and DFS Pricing. Collin is the 4th highest priced player in the field in Draftkings this week coming off an equally impressive and disappointing tournament at the Sentry.We haven't seen a lot of JT in this new season. The Farmers will be only his 3rd tournament so far, and he's yet to record a 24th or better finish. The approach play, normally his strength, has also suffered of late. He's failed to gain strokes in 3 of his last 4 starts.That all said, I found it interesting that if you do a 100 round simulation of this matchup, Justin Thomas wins nearly 58% of the time. Thomas is also looking to garner more ownership in DFS this week given the discounted pricing, roughly 21%.

Adam Hadwin -114 ($8200) vs. Taylor Pendrith -106 ($7900)

Here we go with an interesting matchup of Canadians (shoutout grumpy Canadians*) that possess very different skill sets. Hadwin comes into the Farmers will a solid run of form and iron play but Pendrith has the tools which are better suited for the length of Torrey Pines.The sharpest market making books opened up odds with Pendrith as a modest favorite. They have since recently taken in heavy money on Hadwin in this matchup flipping the odds this morning. If you run the sims, Pendrith wins this matchup 54% of the time for a 50 round sim.There's a clear ownership advantage to playing Hadwin in DFS even though he's $300 more expensive. His ownership is currently projected arouind 7% with Pendrith is projected to be 14%.

Luke List  -117 ($8000) vs. David Thompson -103 ($7800)

Ahh, the always intriguing matchup of the hot hand guy from last week vs. the struggling defending Champion. This matchup opened up -110 on each side at the sharp books, but they immediately took some action on List which bumped the line to -117 where it sits now.They are both projected around equal in terms of DFS ownership, checking in at about 5% owned. While Thompson comes in with a lower price point, his recent form over the last 36 rounds is substantially better. He's on average gaining +.77 strokes over that span while List is  -.62 strokes.In fact, List is the only player priced over $7500 this week that is losing strokes to the field over the last 36 rounds. Big time yikes. It really comes down to how much stock you are willing to put into course history. In his 20 rounds at Torrey Pines South, List has exceeded his standard SG: Performance over expectation by a massive +.73 per round.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Last week's chalk bomb Cameron Young made a nice little Sunday run but still ended up finishing outside the top 25. That equals success in terms of fading a player inside the top 5 in ownership. Predictably, he lost strokes both ARG and Putting which he has been struggling with all too much lately.

For the CB this week, we're looking back up top and currently this player once again is projected inside the top 5 highest owned players for the week. There's little doubt there has been positive strides lately in this players performance, but if we comb through the data a little more intently, there are certainly signs that make this player fit to destroy your lineup.

This players performance at the Farmers in the past is hard to argue, but I think it's a misleading narrative that has given a significant, unwarranted bump to his ownership this week. At Torrey Pines, it's all right out there in front of you. There's no course history advantage, there is a instead just an ELITE PLAYER advantage. The course tends to separate the strong from the weak as well as any course on tour. If you aren't a top player in the world, it's going to be difficult to win against guys in the peak of their careers.The long iron play is a major differentiator this week, and key to success in the past at Torrey. During this players peak, he was arguably the best in the world with a 4/5 iron. Roughly 1/3 of all approach shots last year came from 200+ yards! That's wild!  When you look at this players proximity from 175-200 yards and 200+ yards over his last 50 rounds, he ranks 113th and 108th in the field this week.There is also the idea that this player gets a significant boost this week because they are a "POA" putter. In reality, throughout this players career, while POA is indeed their best surface, they are a good putter basically anywhere. The difference between their worst putting grass (Bermuda) and their best (POA) is only 0.1 strokes. Certainly not enough to warrant any significant advantage in our eyes.We are well aware the price is tasty, but do your best to resist. There is no world where this player, in his current state, should be a top 5 owned player in any field right now. Things have been blown way out of proportion for a player with 1 top-10 finish in his last 19 starts! Checking in at a ridiculous projected 19.8% owned (top 5), Jason Day, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

You know what I can't stand. Decorative towels in bathrooms. It's so ridiculous. You can't use them, because then you're just going to piss off your significant other or the person who put them there thinking they were pretty. Then very specifically told you they were NOT be used. So now here we are, just wasting space on the towel holders that you need for the towels you actually CAN use. Next time I'm at a house with decorative towels I'm going to use them anyway out of spite. So I'm told every snowflake is different. Well, I wanna know how you can prove to me that every damn snowflake is indeed, unique. People are too infatuated with the ability to fly. If I had wings I don't think it would be cool at all. I would probably just get so damn tired flapping them so hard to get to wherever I was going I would just want to cut the damn things off and be done with it.  Overrated wish if you ask me. Just so we're clear. It's a good thing to take candy from a baby. They really shouldn't be eating candy yet. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Farmers Insurance Open at beautiful and iconic Torrey Pines. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

Forward