This Week's Tour Stop Farmer Insurance @ Torrey Pines 

The Impossible Course Fit

So I got to play Torrey Pines about 3 weeks ago (I took the above pic), and the only thing that kept popping into my head constantly (besides the pure beauty of the place), was how in the f#%* does Brandt F#$%ing Snedeker have good course history here?? I tried to make lots of mental notes knowing that I was playing it about as close as one could before they handed the course over to the PGA tour.The opening 4 holes have to be 4 of the best in all of golf. You play right up against the ocean cliffs for the length of all four with Pacific Beach/La Jolla as the backdrop. It is ridiculously long. We played from the 'member' tees which measure almost 6700 yards, and the fellas this week are playing almost 1000 yards behind that! I drove the ball fairly well all-day but certainly hit my fair share of 3 woods & hybrids into the greens, and it shouldn't be much different for these guys as 200+ yards is far & away the biggest approach shot bucket. The rough was already fairly high, 3-3.5 inches, and seeing as how I only hit 50% of my fairways this day I had quite a bit of practice playing from said rough. Below is a pic of me standing in the rough (about 4.5 inches to the top of my shoe)

Something that I found interesting though was of all those shots, I only found myself in 2 spots where the rough was extremely penal. I'm not sure if it's just the combo of the kikuyu with overseeded rye or what, but generally, I didn't have a huge issue getting my clubface to the back of the ball. It's certainly an issue with being able to get spin on the ball around the greens but again I came away surprised that the rough was not more penal than it was (aka the ball usually sat up). I generally dislike 'Penal' style courses, mostly because if they are really long the green complexes will generally be dull/flat, but I was pleasantly surprised at the amount of slope in the greens, and on some holes, there is really big slope. It was my first time playing on Poa greens, and to be quite honest, to me they just played like regular bentgrass greens. If you brought your ball in high or had good spin on the ball, it generally stopped right where it landed. I don't remember seeing much 'bump' from the poa or having any putts roll offline. They've added some key fairways bunkers that I test drove on several holes because you know playing out of the fairway is just boring. I've seen players already complaining about them which is generally a good sign because that means they are in play for most of the guys. 

To sum it up for DFS/betting purposes: Length, which is always helpful, but more important than that is long iron/hybrid/wood play (see: length). I do think accuracy is helpful but not a requirement because everyone will miss a lot of fairways. Target good bentgrass/poa putters that like fast greens. And as always, my #1 stat for course history is GIR % & always included in the 10 facts. Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Fowler vs. Woodland

The price of this line isn't so much the interesting part as both guys have the exact same top 10 odds. The interesting part is that Gary will most likely be in the top 4 owned guys while almost no one has even mentioned Rickie this week despite a top 10 finish at the AmEx. True, Rickie's course history here is terrible, but what if I told you that 5 of the last 7 times he's played at Torrey Pines, he's hit at LEAST 69% of his greens in reg (the field average is 62%). What if I also told you that Rickie is #1 in the field in proximity in the 2 main approach shot buckets (Woodland is 16th). Getting an ownership discount of at least 2 to 1, maybe as high as 3 to 1. That's the kind of leverage that wins you GPP's. 

MATCHUP 2

Scheffler vs. Smith

We highlighted Scheffler last week here & though I wasn't planning it this week the head to head price was just too interesting. Scottie's game reminds me a lot of Jon Rahm's in the sense that he's so good off the tee it naturally leads to a higher baseline for greens in reg hit. Since the start of the fall swing, Scheffler has gained at LEAST 7.1 total strokes on the field in 6 of 8 events. His Poa stats suck, but he has a grand total of 6 rounds for his career so far so feel free to ignore. Even though Cam Smith is coming off a win, I certainly wasn't expecting his name to pop up in the 10 facts because he historically hasn't been the best driver of the golf ball. But as you'll see his name comes up 3 separate times and he's #1 in the field in strokes gained putting on Poa. 

MATCHUP 3

McIIroy vs. Rahm

One of the key decisions for the week, the books have Rory with implied odds to beat Rahm 55.56% of the time heads up. If we run the simulation in Fantasy National, the last 36 tournaments that both guys have played in, Rory has beat Rahm 19 times or 53%, so that checks out. Rory makes the 10 facts 6 times, Rahm only 2 times. Rory is 9th in proximity for the 2 main approach shot buckets, Rahm is 36th. One important note though for you guys that only look at strokes gained data. Rahm played in 4 euro events between the Tour Championship & the tournament of champions, in those 4 euro events he went 2nd, MC, 1st, 1st, and none of that data is going to be in his strokes gained data. It's extremely close but I think I would still slightly prefer Rory given equal ownership. 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.The weather will be perfect all week. If you're betting first round leaders, lean late tee times on the North course. MyBookie isn't offering any FRL's right now, but Kang, Steele, Cauley, Ortiz, Watney, Seiffert, and Nesmith would tickle my fancy as late time North course guys. Other than that, there's no real reason to give an edge to anyone in terms of outrights. 

Through 12 Weeks: Spent $600 / Won $1250 / Up 65 unitsOutright WinnerCam Smith (40/1)_$15, Munoz (110/1)_$10, Jones (140/1)_$10, Ortiz (175/1)_$10, Vegas (225/1)_$5

So, I'm hammered at the PGA Show and couldn't spend tooooo much time on these. I know this is a tough track where the cream tends to rise to the top...however, I like these long shots. Smith, Munoz and Jones are all recent winners. Vegas has won a big tournament before and we've hit him at triple digits before. Ortiz is playing well and checks some boxes. Obviously really love Smith since I'm putting a unit and a half on him. Anyway, that's all I got, but I promise I like these guys. I'm just too lit to type out a bunch of shit. Godspeed boys!

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 50% Deposit Bonus. They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• Poa & bentgrass are far & away his 2 worst putting surfaces

• He's 90th in the field in approach shot proximity from 200+ yards, the most important approach shot bucket

• He's 66th in the field in approach shot proximity from 175-200 yards, the 2nd most important approach shot bucket

• Despite good course history, the last 2 years his GIR % is just above field average in those 2 years

• 3 putt avoidance actually has a positive correlation this week, & this guy is 123rd in the field for that

• In a week where driving accuracy is helpful, this guy is 103rd in the field in fairways gained

• Of every player 8k & up he has the highest missed cut rate of any player the last calendar year

• According to DataGolf, strokes gained around the green are slightly more important at Torrey Pines than at the average Tour event (makes sense since the GIR % is also lower) this guy ranks 108th in the field in strokes gained around the green

At 15.6% projected ownership on Fantasy National (7nd highest, & I've seen him as high as #1 in other places), Ryan Palmer, your the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

-When you go to flush a poop and that one turd comes back up....what do it want? Why won't you go to your home?

-The fact that time slows down the closer you get to the speed of light really freaks me out

-The fact that gravity bends light also freaks me out

-Did you know that 84% of putts outside of 5 feet miss short

-Did you know that you can double your money in just 9 years with 8% compounding interest?

-We're at the PGA show this week, with all your club pros. That's why you might actually get a warm welcome & a smile if you play golf this week

-I sometimes enjoy making people uncomfortable on purpose. A guilty pleasure of mine is when someone goes to give me a fist bump I just wrap my hand around their fist (like catching a punch). They have no idea how to respond to it, especially if it's someone you don't know very well. 

-Isn't it funny that the more people that are on an elevator, the more all those people pretend they are on the elevator by themselves? It's such a weird dynamic. 

-I'm currently reading 'These Truths' by Jill Lepore, an all-encompassing single volume (960 pages) of the political & judicial history of the United States that seeks to answer the question of have we lived up to these 'truths' that Thomas Jefferson declared as 'self-evident'. The answer in almost every era of American history is both yes & no. I greatly appreciate the historians like Lepore that aren't afraid to dig out all the skeletons of the grand US democratic experiment & show people just how little black & white (99% gray) there is. The most amusing part is that almost all the issues that my mind generally reserved for modern times (like last 20 years) are the exact same problems that the founding fathers & 1st generations dealt with as well. Some of those issues we've gotten way better at, some we have made virtually no progress on. It's a great read though, check it out!

-Why do people buy Tupperware anymore? We just get all of ours from the Chinese restaurant 

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Farmers (remember this data is only from the South course):

1. Finau 2. Rose 3. Matsuyama 4. Mullinax 5. Woodland 6. Gooch 7. McIIroy 8. Woods 9. Palmer 10. List

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Torrey Pines (min 2 appearances): 

1. Watson 2. Uihlein 3. Cink 4. Bradley 5. Glover 6. Rose 7. Day 8. Kokrak 9. Herman 10. Rahm

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

 1. Smith 2. Ortiz 3. Day 4. Hossler 5. Mickelson 6. Lovemark 7. Snedeker 8. Thompson 9. Schauffele 10. Brown

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ fast greens, difficult to hit fairways, and over 7400 yards your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 12 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Day 3. Watson 4. Mickelson 5. Snedeker 6. Woodland 7. Reed 8. Smith 9. Rose 10. Holmes

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways and over 7400 yards your top 10 is (min 12 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Woodland 3. Palmer 4. Watson 5. Glover 6. Matsuyama 7. Molinari 8. Rose 9. Hoffman 10. Cink

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Rahm 2. Matsuyama 3. Im 4. Grillo 5. Steele 6. Trahan 7. English 8. Cauley 9. McIIroy 10. Schauffele

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important again at Torrey, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. McIIroy 2. Norlander 3. Jones 4. Clark 5. Vegas 6. Schauffele 7. Griffin 8. Burns 9. Matsuyama 10. HV3

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 175-200 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Fowler 2. Woods 3. Knox 4. Stallings 5. McIIroy 6. Kokrak 7. Leishman 8. Ghim 9. Hoge 10. Hickok

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Hadley 2. Palmer 3. Niemann 4. Smith 5. Grillo 6. Laird 7. Rose 8. Leishman 9. Munoz 10. Matsuyama

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Molinari 2. Bradley 3. Ben An 4. Perez 5. Steele 6. Ortiz 7. Glover 8. Cauley 9. Palmer 10. Watson

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG