Farmers 22 Chalk Bomb

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As of Tuesday morning, there doesn't appear to be any significant weather / wave course advantage for the first 2 days of the Farmers. The weekend does show the possibility of more windy conditions, but all in all, this place should play a lot like it has in year's past (excluding 2021 US Open). 

Berger -118 vs. DeChambeau +101

I can't believe where Berger's ownership numbers are at the moment. He's projected between 8-11% right now and that's insane! The guy is balling right now and the H2H bettors agree. He's a fav against Bryson, Burns and DJ (large favorite too).

I guess this particular line is a battle of 2 guy's with shitty course history at Torrey for the Farmers, but Berger's recent form is much more attractive at the moment. I'm buying Berger like I'm buying the $ETH dip at the moment! I just can't believe his ownership is this low. 

Sungjae -111 vs. Finau -105

I'm also a believer in Sungjae this week, and this line confirms it. He was the last man out on my BBBC this week, but he's a full send in DFS. He's projected around 8-11% versus Finau's at 20% plus! He opened and remains the favorite. 

One weird note though is he's actually a very slight dog to Max Homa at -108 to -112 and that line hasn't moved at all. Not sure what to think of that as I'd put Sungjae on another level over Homa week to week.

Woodland -136 vs. Fowler +112

Whoa! This line opened and remains with quite the spread. I liked Woodland on the podcast and continue to be drawn to him given his price, course fit, and tremendous record at the Farmers. He's missed 1 cut in the last 11 years here and his ball striking numbers have been fantastic. I'm not worried about the MC last week at the AMEX either. It looked like he was just knocking off some rust as he was basically field average in every stat category.

Both players are projected to be fairly low owned leverage plays in GPPs, and both have had their struggles for sure. In fact, I'd argue Rickie's very recent form is better than Gary's, yet for some reason the books and those firing at this H2H seem to think this is a landslide in Gary's favor.

That's it folks. I had to be brief today with the short week and loads of content. Let's have a week and may your screens be green!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

Another stellar week for me, DB, (new Chalk Bomb author since September) as Abe Ancer finished T40 and 60th in DK Scoring at 16-18% ownership. I honestly think the "industry" is perpetually over rating Abe. I think he's a good player, but he's not as good as many prop him up to be. But...moving on to the Farmers...I honestly hate to do this, but my duty as the Chalk Bomb author demands my objectivity and best analysis whilst disregarding how I may feel in my heart about a certain player.I've seen this player projected anywhere from 16% up to 26% so far today across 2 trusted websites. Now...I am making a bigger leap here as he doesn't have to do as much to return on his price of merely $7.3K. But a chalky low $7K player historically plays out as a worthy fade when the tournament comes to an end.Cam Davis is an Aussie. I love Aussies. Aussie's seem to love Torrey. I love Cam. But...I can't roster a possibly 20% owned Cam Davis this week. He's made 4 of 4 cuts here at the Farmers, but his best finish being T32. He certainly does seem to be a solid course fit here at Torrey from a distance, ball striking, Aussie-ness standpoint. However, it appears he's not a fan of POA as he's lost a total of 4 strokes putting in the 4 years.He actually opened and remains a slight underdog against fellow Aussie, Matt Jones. Matt. F'ing. Jones! You serious, Clark?One other strike on Cam would be that since I hit him at 150/1 at the Rocket Mortgage last July, he's only recorded 1 top 25 finish, and that was at the Sentry...in a field of 38...In fact, in his 28 events since January of 2021, he's recorded THREE top 10s! THREE! And one of those was a T10 in a field of 38! That's just not the recipe and consistency I'd like to see from a $7.3K priced, possibly 20% owned player. At 20% (Top 5 to 10 highest) projected ownership, Cameron Davis...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

My youngest son is becoming quite the pontificator just like his old man. On the way to school this morning he asked me if we ever got two milk jugs from the same cow. 

Is there anything more rude and inconsiderate than when people bring their own food on an airplane? Especially when it’s like Chick-fil-A or something that smells amazing. Hell the last flight I was on someone brought an entire family meal from Bojangles. I wanted to punch them. Instead, I asked them for a wing. 

Speaking of considerate. Doctors office waiting rooms are always frustrating to me. That said, I was in a surgical center waiting room today that literally had a scoreboard letting you know what the hell was going on behind those double doors. Amazing.

I feel like I need to change my shoe habits. What’s the normal life cycle for tennis shoes (yes I call them tennis shoes and not sneakers) 2-3 years? 

Alright folks! That’s all I got. Enjoy the Farmers Insurance Open at beautiful Torrey Pines and good luck with your lineups and bets. Bome! 

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