Dell Technologies Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Dell Technologies Championship

And then there were 100.....down to the final 3 events of the year and inside one month for the Ryder Cup! Our boy (ok maybe he's just my boy) Bryson 'the machine' Dechambeau locks up his spot on the American team in impressive fashion and jumps to 1st in the FedEx Cup standings. I've already heard whispers of a Tiger/Bryson pairing in fourball which will make for incredible, must watch TV. 

For this week it's another interesting course fit that's actually fairly similar to last week. While it's a fairly long course, the driver again is the least important club in the bag. A common mistake I see players make is automatically equating long course = bombers. For TPC Boston, long = players that hit their long irons well/have excellent short games. Guys like Stenson, Casey, Day, Spieth, Stricker, Tiger, Reed, Fowler have all played really well here over the years...as always, distance is an advantage, BUT here at TPC Boston the elite ball strikers and short games have ruled over the years. The players will hit more approach shots from 200 yards+ than any other shot this week (the PGA tour average for GIR hit from 200+ is less than 50%, hence the need for a good short game). Leh go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Not a ton of interesting lines this week but a couple are standing out (& I disagree w/ several....once again the two we highlighted last week were both easy wins):It seems like every week we highlight this price and every week (almost) you just need to take Brooks at the plus moneyline and get checks in the mail. Interestingly DJ is one of the worst on tour at approach shots over 200 yards, but at the same time he's so long that he also doesn't have that shot nearly as often as other players. So you can take one of two ways, one, he probably just doesn't practice that shot as much because he doesn't have it that often. Or two, it's just a small sample size issue (only 73 attempts on the season) he was 32nd in 17', & 18th in 16'.......so more likely small sample size issue but perhaps not. Brooks on the other hand is equally long, AND has good long approach stats AND has a good short game...I'll take the plus moneyline again.I created a custom model to see where everyone ranked on long approach shots (prox not GIR) JT is actually the best 9k & up. Brooks is 2nd 9k & up and despite only finishing 18th last year 3 of his 4 rounds were 68 or lower. JT is obviously the defending champ and was rock solid across the board gaining strokes across the board last year. Once again we have a fairly poor course fit for Jon Rahm....he did finish T4 last year but he lead the field in strokes gained putting for the week and only gained 0.37 strokes tee to green per round. On the other hand, raise your hand if you think Adam Scott gains over 8 strokes putting for a second consecutive week (he lead the field last week)....my hand is not raised. I'm fairly low on both these players this week, especially considering they are projected at high(er) ownership. I will say this for AS....he is good with his long irons, ranking 10th in the field in my custom model.Everyone has left Justin Rose for dead, so this is just your friendly reminder that he's a head to head fav over podbro Tony Finau. I didn't get to watch a ton of the tournament last week, but I'm guessing Tony chipped in a time or two or three or four seeing as how he gained 2/3rd's of his total strokes around the green (and almost doubled his previous career high in that category for one event). He was his usual dominate self off the tee but his approach game has been off 3 out of the last 4 as he has a combined -1.9 strokes gained approach in that span. I'm surprised to see Cantlay as the favorite here, perhaps the books are expecting some kind of let down after Bryson sealed his Ryder Cup berth. Bryson was rock solid across the board last week, and is actually the better long iron player as well (he's 2nd in the field in proximity over 200+ yards). Cantlay also played well last week, if he can just get his putter to click with the rest of his game that's all he needs for top 5 finish. Fleetwood is projected as one of the highest owned players this week, but is essentially a pickem again Stenson. Henrik is #1 in my long iron play custom model while Tommy Fleetwood ranks 37th. I'm not 100% convinced that Stenson is healthy, but he did take the week off last week to recoup. Lets also not forget that Stenson has a win and 2nd place here in 4 tries.Webb has been incredibly consistent all year, and he won this event back in 2011, though outside of that he doesn't have great course history. Webb lost strokes approach last week for the first time since May (still crazy to see he won the players losing strokes approach), anyways, its a tricky spot for him because he's fairly poor with his long irons (81st in the field), but I wouldn't expect him to lose strokes a second week in a row. Billy on the other hand has been playing lights out with his irons, though he does tend to struggle with the longer approach shots as well.

THE Chalk Bomb

This weeks addition is almost as easy as last week's pick, Woodland, who finished T-48 (your welcome). Some facts about our man this week:1. His course history is what I would consider poor: 70th, 2nd, 72nd, MC, MC....one is not like the others2. He's gotten up & down over 82% of the time in 3 of his last 5 events, juuuuuust a bit unsustainable. The tour leader is at 66% for the season, and even with the hot 60 degree wedge, this guy still only ranks 115th on tour in scrambling.3. Four of his last seven events have been weak field events, so while he's had good tee to green stats the last month and a half, you also need to see it through the proper lens.4. Although we cut the cut to 98ish players this week, his price has increased $800...the 3rd highest price increase in the field.5. With players taking an unusual number of long approach shots this week, lets look at how our guy ranks for the year:150-175 yards: 70th175-200 yards: 62nd200+ yards: 62ndAnd remember that's out of 98 players in the field this week. That adds up to a composite ranking of 76th. 6. He's a head to head underdog against similar priced guys.

Our friends over at Fansharesports.com have this guy projected as the HIGHEST owned player this week:

Billy, your the chalk bomb! ( makes me think of Billy Madison...STOP LOOKING AT ME SWAN! (or Flamingo))

10 Facts So You Can Afford Better Pod Juice Than 24oz Ole E, PBR, or Highlife!

1. Last 50 rounds your strokes gained putting leaders on bentgrass greens are: 1. Day 2. Grillo 3. Hossler 4. Henley 5. W Kim 6. Harman 7. ZJ 8. Koepka 9. Horschel 10. Reed2. Your top 10 GIR hit leaders from 200+ yards this year: 1. Stenson 2. Kokrak 3. Scott 4. Molinari 5. Horschel 6. Koepka 7. Mitchell 8. Pan 9. Grillo 10. Kizzire3. Top 10 guys that have the biggest positive putting splits on bent vs other surfaces: 1. Ancer 2. Dahmen 3. Uihlein 4. Koepka 5. W Kim 6. Lahiri 7. M Kim 8. Rose 9. Burgoon 10. Kuch4. Top 10 guys in proximity to the hole from approach shots of 200+ yards: 1. Casey 2. Koepka 3. JT 4. Oost 5. Woodland 6. Dechambeau 7. Phil 8. Rafa 9. Tiger 10. Rory5. Top 10 guys in my course history rating: 1. Oost 2. Day 3. Stenson 4. Woodland 5. DJ 6. Keegan 7. Casey 8. Kirk 9. Rory 10. Poulter6. Top 10 guys in GIR hit the last 6 weeks (not taking into account field strength): 1. Horschel 2. CT Pan 3. Dahmen 4. Lee 5. Stallings 6. Kokrak 7. Palmer 8. Oosthuizen 9. List 10. JT7. Top 10 guys in GIR hit the last 6 weeks taking into account field strength (see how different this list is from above) 1. Woodland 2. Oost 3. JT 4. Cantlay 5. Palmer 6. Horschel 7. List 8. Phil 9. Finau 10. Tiger8. If I build a custom model with 50% weight approach shots of 200+, 25% 175-200, & 25% 150-175 your top 10 are: 1. Stenson 2. Na 3. Phil 4. JT 5. DeChambeau 6. Wee Kim 7. Hoffman 8. Koepka 9. Hideki 10. Scott9. Bottom 10 in the same model: 1. CH3 2. Hossler 3. Noren 4. Kisner 5. M Kim 6. Lovemark 7. Piercy 8. Putnam 9. Hahn 10. Cink10. Your strokes gained tee to green leaders in 2017: 1. JT 2. Spieth 3. Cink 4. Grace 5. Na 6. DJ 7. Phil 8. Rose 9. Casey 10. Hideki

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Mini Champ Series ($6), Albatross ($12), or Medium Champ Series ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar