This Week's Tour Stop Charles Schwab Challenge @ Colonial 

WELCOME.BACK.

We did it guys! Somehow, someway, we were all able to go 3 months with essentially zero sports. I don't know about yall, but real-life golf has been a Godsend for me ever since the county went to Defcon 5. Being cooped up in the house with the wife & 2 small children for 3 straight months...it was a challenge to say the least. But getting to be outside for 4 hours & only worrying about getting a little white ball to go in the hole was extremely refreshing & good for the soul. 

We'll I hope everyone is ready to go because starting this week we're essentially gonna have 18 straight months of PGA events (& God willing, 2 Masters in a 5-month span). The players are obviously ready to go as we're set to have major like fields for both this week & the following week at two courses that have historically been weaker field events. Course history & fit will take on a much larger role in the conversation this week, so there should be plenty of edge to be had fading whatever is the popular narrative. Just remember, WE ARE ALL making very uneducated guesses about the players this week. Even the sportsbooks are in a pretty uncomfortable spot of guessing what kind of form/shape everyone is in. If you have a really strong opinion this week that the market doesn't agree with, go with it! Everyone is operating in the same darkness. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. As you can tell, 'relatively' speaking driving distance is less important at Colonial (though it always matters to some degree), and strokes gained around the greens has more 'relative' importance (though it's generally the least important on a week to week basis).  Historically the bombers have skipped this event precisely because of the above. For example, we would shave about 1 full stroke off someone like Rory or Rahm's projections for the week because of the fit. In a week like we have here, if you see the short knockers getting extra ownership, don't be afraid to pivot because the adjustment isn't that big. Par 4 scoring takes on more importance this week with a par 70. Driving accuracy is much lower at Colonial than your average PGA tour stop (55%) as is the GIR % (63%) which helps to explain why around the green game gets a bump. If you're looking for more course history/fit I would recommend taking a look at Harbor Town, Waialae, & TPC Southwind since much of the field has little or no history. Just remember, no one knows anything this week. So if you like someone, go with it. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Kiz vs. Dahmen

Kiz -120 vs. Dahmen +100

With no recent form to lean on this week, course history will obviously take on a larger role in peoples decision-making process. One of the biggest weakness we can exploit this week are fading people with perceived great history that may in fact not be so great...example 1A, Mr. Kiz. Yes, he's won here and had 2 other top 10 finishes, but when you dig a little deeper, you'll see it's largely due to great putting which is very hard to predict/replicate. As you'll see in the 10 facts, he doesn't even rank in the top 10 in the field for GIR hit % at Colonial, and is 44th in the field in strokes gained tee to green here. However, over his 20 rounds, he's gained 22 strokes putting. I've also always (wrongly) assumed that Kiz was really good around the green, when in fact for his career he averages -0.2 strokes gained per event (which remember has added importance this week). So yes, Kiz is absolutely a great putter, and yes, bentgrass is his best surface, but it's very hard to look at the numbers objectively & say that Colonial is a 'great' fit for Kiz. To boot, before the layoff, Kiz had lost strokes on approach shots in 4 straight events. As for Joel, he's one of those 'Gruden's Grinders' that just keeps getting better & better. I can't remember where I saw it on Twitter, but he's improved his world rank from 510th in 2017 to 69th currently. Since he got his card he's managed to improve every single area of his game, gaining almost twice as many strokes across the board. He's become a sneaky good driver of the ball averaging almost 2 strokes per event, & has gained strokes on approach shots in 10 of his last 12. The putter has historically been what's held him back, losing about a half stroke per event, but when given the choice between ball-striking & putting, give me the ball striking 100% of the time. 

MATCHUP 2

JT vs. Simpson

JT -135 vs. Simpson +105

I fully expect Webb to be the chalk du jour this week as Colonial is the perceived perfect fit for this game to go along with the cheapest price in the top tier of players plus pretty good course history. As far as a betting standpoint I was pretty surprised to see that not only was Webb the underdog to JT but at several books he's basically a pickem against Bryson & Xander (this may change by Wednesday, writing this on Sunday). So lets break it down starting with JT. I was kind of hoping that he would be the 'forgotten man' this week...dating back to the BMW last year (11 events ago), he owns 8 top 6 finishes (although 4 of those are limited field events). He had a frustrating run for a decent chunk of the year where the putter was really letting him down, and the only 2 cuts he missed during the start of the 2020 season he lost strokes putting in both. As far as long term stats, he's 2nd in the field in ball striking, and 22nd in strokes gained around the greens. He's never played here so that should also knock down his ownership. Webb on the other hand ranks 28th in the field in strokes gained ball striking over his last 50 rounds, and as you know, since he changed his putting stroke has been one of the best putters on tour for almost 3 years now. Webb owns 2 great finishes at Colonial & 1 pretty bad finish. His GIR hit percent here has been solid though, even during his bad rounds he was right at field average. Webb is still the overall better putter on bent, but has a slightly negative split, while JT has a slightly positive split. For betting I'd take the plus money on Webb, in DFS I'd take JT for what should be a fairly big ownership discount. 

MATCHUP 3

Rory vs. Rahm

Rory -125 vs. Rahm +105

This was written for the Chalk Bomb of the Players re: Rory: 'It seems like a recurring theme every week now. The decision to play Rory as the most expensive player with possibly the highest ownership makes you take a stand to either fade him completely or try & double the field in ownership.' Sooo...things have apparently changed. Yea, Rory's value stinks this week, but as we sit here on Monday night, he's currently only projected for 13% ownership which would be his 2nd lowest since February of 2019! As you'll also see in the 10 facts, Rory appears 6! times in a very course history/course fit week (& he has neither course history nor a perceived good fit). Here's a good trivia question for you: Of all the players with a salary of 7900 or more, who would rank #1 in strokes gained around the green over their last 100 rounds? If you answered, 'Rory McIIroy,' you would be correct. Everyone ewww's & ahh's about his driving, & rightfully so as he's #1 in that category as well, but you very, very rarely ever hear anyone give him that kind of credit for his short game. For Rahm, you get a pretty juicy $700 discount against Rory, and he has the course history as well. Frankly, he probably got unlucky to not win in 2018 when he hit 78% of his greens in reg, the exact same number that both Na & Rose hit in their wins at Colonial. Statistically, Rahm is the much better putter than Rory, but generally, Rory makes a lot of that back up with his iron play. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.I truly don't see much of a weather advantage this week in terms of waves or First Round Leader bets. Thursday & Friday look like smoking hott Texas twins glistening in the sun...Given the volatility of the week, I'll just stick to Outright winners only for the card. Historically, we haven't seen many triple digit winners at Colonial (even in the weak ass fields they've had) with the exception of 100/1 Boo Weekley. Now, you've got basically the field equivalent of the Northern Trust, so I don't anticipate a winner to come from longer than say 80 or 90/1. But...I don't have my big acorns in a wheelbarrow for nothing and I'm up 35 units on the year, so LFG! 

Through 18 Weeks: Spent $900 / Won $1250 / Up 35 unitsOutright WinnerRose (45/1)_$10, Kuchar (50/1)_$12.50, Lowry (60/1)_$7.50, Berger (70/1)_$5,Ancer (80/1)_$10, Poulter (125/1)_$5 

You can see the range I'm kind of hanging out in here, right? I do like some of the shorter odds plays like Xander, Rickie and Reed, but this isn't DB's Smedium Balls Betting Card. However, I'm still trying to win some units and stay on the side of history at Colonial. Poulter is my only 3 digit dickhole purely based on his experience here, his historically superb scrambling ability, and fairly decent accuracy tee to green. I love Ancer here. He's a Texas boy, played college golf in Texas, is extremely accurate off the tee and he grew up a lot at the President's Cup. He took on the Big Cat and looked like he belonged on that team from the first ball in the air. I don't think this field is too big for him (even though he's a tiny man). Given the half unit, I'm less than thrilled about Berger's win equity here, but he was playing great before the break and lest we forget only a few years ago when he was looking to be golf's next big, young superstar before having some injury issues. I love Lowry here for the all around tee to green game and especially his ability to scramble. He's excellent in windy conditions IF the weather changes on a dime, and he's an Open Championship with the chops to compete against the best. Kuch is self explanatory. This is a perfect Kuch course. Pounding that number for the back door Top 10 miser. And Rose...well...I don't feel incredible about it, but he's got win equity no matter what golf clubs he's signed with, and now that he's back with TaylorMade...maybe he's got the magic in his hands again.

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a pickem against someone $600 cheaper (& he's already priced at his cheapest DFS price...ever!)

• Despite good course history, over the course of his last 6 rounds here he's LOST total strokes ball striking

• This week he's projected for his highest ownership in almost 18 months!

• Heading into the break he had lost total strokes in 10 of his last 16 events, & over his last 10 events he's averaged losing 1.1 strokes to the field

• Out of his last 24 events, he's lost strokes on approach shots in 17 of them

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 9 of his last 12 events

• His driving accuracy has been below field average for 14 of his last 15 events

• Despite his cheapest DFS price ever, there are still 19 players cheaper than him that are ranked higher in projected DFS points

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 144th in the field in strokes gained ball striking

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 130th in the field in strokes gained on par 4's

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 135th in the 2 main approach shot buckets

At 13% calculated ownership (8th highest), Jordan Spieth, you're the Chalk Bomb! The reality is that yes, Jordan has great history here, but he's been #bad for going on 2 years now. It's certainly not impossible that he found something during the break, but if he shits the bed this week, he's going to go straight back to being 5% owned like he was most weeks leading up to the Players. 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Ok I need to talk Corona masks for a sec. Look, I get the need for them and everything, but I got problems with some of what I’m seeing. First off, who and why are these people driving around, windows up, by themselves in their own vehicle full on wearing a mask? And what about mask guy (or girl) with their mask not covering their nose? Newsflash: That ain’t how it’s supposed to work. Finally, how about biker dude riding down the street, just getting a little exercise but fully covered like he’s in a hazmat zone or something. I need some answers.

I’ve been lucky enough to play a decent amount of golf during the pandemic and I’ve come to the understanding that a lot of golfers don’t understand the 90 degree cart path rule. It seems they start out with good intentions but then suddenly forget what common angles and geometry concepts mean and start to scatter all over the place. Oh, and then the same people send out mass emails complaining about the conditions of the golf course. Shaking my damn head.

Another Corona thought. It’s apparently criminal to sneeze in a grocery store now. I did this the other day and an older gentlemen gave me the worst death stare I’ve ever seen. Look dude, I have bad allergies, calm the F down.

I don’t know how many school teacher listeners and subscribers we have, but if you are I just want to say GOD BLESS YOU. Homeschooling sucks, 3

 grade math is extremely hard, and I wanted to suspend my kids after day 3. That being said if y’all don’t get your asses to work after this summer there are going to be some pissed off and unruly parents come August. Just sayin.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy golf being back this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge with a magnificent field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Charles Schwab:

1. Watney 2. Na 3. Sabbatini 4. Palmer 5. Cauley 6. Pan 7. Horschel 8. Putnam 9. Finau 10. Hoffman

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Colonial (min 8 rounds): 

1.  Knox 2. Harman 3. Furyk 4. Putnam 5. Henry 6. Pan 7. Cauley 8. Dufner 9. Tway 10. Hoffman

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Hossler 2. Sneds 3. Na 4. Spieth 5. Fowler 6. Rodgers 7. Kisner 8. Simpson 9. Todd 10. Noren

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways, and fast greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. McIIroy 2. Spieth 3. Day 4. Folwer 5. DJ 6. Koepka 7. English 8. Simpson 9. Rose 10. Sneds

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on firm greens, difficult scoring, and difficult to hit fairways your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Watson 4. Rose 5. Chambeau 6. Palmer 7. Hoffman 8. Leishman 9. Dahman 10. CH3

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on par 70 courses:

 1. DJ 2. Reavie 3. Koepka 4. Conners 5. McIIroy 6. Kokrak 7. Dahmen 8. Rose 9. Palmer 10. Simpson

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Colonial, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1.McIIroy 2. Reed 3. Higgs 4. Simpson 5. Im 6. Snedeker 7. English 8. Hatton 9. Scheffler 10. Dahmen

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 125-150, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Hoffman 2. Hoge 3. Taylor 4. McIIroy 5. Stuard 6. Pan 7. Walker 8. Dufner 9. Hovland 10. Mickelson

9. 

If I make another custom model that is 50% GIR hit & 50% scrambling (the 2 most important things this week) from the last year, your top 10 is:

1. McIIroy! 2. Simpson 3. Knox 4. Rahm 5. Furyk 6. Schauffele 7. NeSmith 8. Fitzpatrick 9. Morikawa 10. Fowler

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Horschel 2. RCB 3. Na 4. Kuchar 5. Niemann 6. Palmer 7. Burgoon 8. Walker 9. Berger 10. McNealy/Ancer