Colonial Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Colonial Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

May 22, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Charles Schwab Challenge @ Colonial 

Colonial, the Cool, not Cool Event

I just don't get it.Why don't PGA tour players like this event and course? It's got the history (longest running non-major tour event held at the same site), it's got the prestige (held a US Open, previous winners list is filled w/ hall of famers, always on the top 100 greatest golf courses in America list), it's on a *decent* spot on the calendar, right after the PGA, and week before the Memorial. What gives? I don't know, but what I do know is that someone copied someone with the whole winner gets a plaid jacket.....I mean look at this, it's literally the same jacket. (Heritage Winner & Colonial Winner)

We have a pretty straight forward course fit this week, and honestly I think it probably gets over played to an extent. Yes, accuracy is good here, but this is your weekly reminder that distance always matters (Hi Brooks). Speaking of Brooks, him & Justin Rose finished 1/2 last year and they certainly fall more into the bombers/just good at golf period camp. The average driving distance at Colonial is 276, almost 10 yards shorter than the average tour stop. Lots of less than driver holes and having to club down from doglegs. The GIR percentage here is actually less than the average tour stop, but the average GIR proximity is over 3 feet closer to the hole, which tells you just how small a lot of these greens really are. It's another par 70 this week and as you should expect, strokes gained on par 4's backtested as the most important holes on the course. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 ZJ vs. Dahmen 

Lots of lines really jumped out at me this week, and podbro Dahmen being a plus moneyline underdog to ZJ is certainly at the top of the list. I think you'll see a recurring theme where the books really weighted course history heavier than they usually do. Pop quiz, who hit more greens in reg at last weeks PGA, Joel Dahmen who finished 71st, or Jordan Spieth who finished 3rd? Chalk Bomb readers are all super sharp, so you know that Joel Dahmen hit more greens, you know who he also he hit more greens than? Yea, ZJ. I honesty think this matchup should have the exact opposite line with Dahmen as the -135 favorite. ZJ's tee to green game actually hasn't been bad, as he's 13th in the field the last 24 rounds. It's the putter, surprisingly, that has been the issue. In the 10 events he's played w/ SG data this season, he's lost strokes putting in 6 of those, w/ 3 being -4 or worse. Also for someone that has 'elite' course history, it's honestly quite poor the last 3 years. He missed the cut last year while hitting 44% of his greens, in 17' he hit 50% of his greens, and in 16' he was still below field average & hit 61% of his greens. 

MATCHUP 2

Fitz vs. Piercy

When I first saw this line I instantly thought Piercy had huge betting value, and I still think he does, just not to the extent of my inital reaction. Piercy's approach game has been Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde all year. He's either lost strokes on approach, or been top 10 in the field, with almost no in between. Matthew on the other hand has been super consistent as he's gained strokes off the tee & on approach in every single event he's played this year. He hasn't gained a ton of strokes (his high water mark is 3 for the season, to give you perspective Piercy has gained over 6 strokes 3 separate times this year) but he has a decently high floor. It's pretty easy decision for me, play Fitz in cash, Piercy in GPP's as he absolutely has the high ceiling. 

MATCHUP 3

Oosthuizen vs. Finau

Another one of the consistent themes this week is seeing players that are clearly 'lesser' players being matchup favorites due to history or fit. Sweet Lou has some of the best historical GIR #'s in the field but gives up almost a full shot per round to Finau as far as scoring average is concerned for the last calendar year. Yes, Tony certainly has taken a step back from his breakout 2018 season, but it's not like he's been terrible. He's gained strokes tee to green at every event sans the the Wells Fargo, and actually just had his 2nd best tee to green event of the season last week at the PGA. It's hard to argue that Coloinal is a great course fit for Finau, but Justin Rose & Brooks Koepka finished 1/2 last year, I think it's just as important to be #GoodAtGolf. Finau has both the higher floor & higher ceiling, don't over think it. 

MATCHUP 4

Speef vs. Xander

So your gonna have to just take my word that an hour ago (10am) Xander was actually a + moneyline underdog to Spieth....David & Pat can back me up because I text them to pound it when I saw the line. It only took 1 week for everyone to jump back on the Speef bandwagon, but all the sharp Chalk Bomb readers got back on him last week for the 1st time in a year BEFORE the masses. The putter is def back as he's literally doubled his strokes gained putting in 4 straight events (not really, but close 1.8, 2.5, 6.2, 10.6). For reference, the leading putter on tour currently (min 30 measured rounds) is Graeme McDowell at .867 strokes gained per round. In Jordan's last 5 events he's averaging 32% MORE strokes gained with his putter than the leading putter on tour right now (1.265 per round). In fairness, Jordan did set a new season high water mark in strokes gained tee to green at 1.9 strokes (which is still less than half his career average). Xander.....Xander Xander Xander.....Xander (who I had in every form & fashion last week), did exactly what he usually does, gained strokes across the board only to bogey his closing 5 holes of the tournament to drop to 16th place. You know who was 2nd in greens in reg hit last week at the PGA? Xander. You know who's better at every facet of the game right now between these two? Xander. You know who has better putting splits on bent grass? Xander. You know who the books still haven't figured out is a top 10 golfer in the world? Xander. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: (In full discourse I'd say the chances of this player missing the cut are slim (maybe 15%) so this is a bet against his 'upside'

  • Dating back to the Farmers here are his total strokes gained for each event (notice the volatility): 0.7, 3.8 (-7.7), (-4.8), 4.9, (-8.9), 3.9, 7.1

  • His strokes gained putting #'s dating back to the Sony: (-1.3), (-4.4), (-4.5), (-4.3), (-5.1), 1.4, (1.2), (-0.2)

  • In 4 of his last 6 starts he's gotten up & down less than 43% of the time

  • His best finish of the year? 22nd

  • Even though this guy is known for precision driving, he actually loses strokes against his baseline on hard to hit fairway courses

  • Over the last 50 rounds he's 69th in the field in strokes gained on par 4's

  • He ranks 51st & 42nd in the two main approach shot buckets this week

  • He's a head to head underdog against someone $400 cheaper than him

  • He's 42nd in the field in opportunities gained the last 50 rounds

  • Despite 'good' course history, he's only 51st in the field in strokes gained tee to green at Colonial

  • And the last time he played at Colonial he gained 10.7 strokes putting which is literally double his second best event in his entire career

  • This will be his 2nd highest DFS price of the season and potentially his 2nd highest ownership

  • At Colonial he's 45th in the field in good drives gained 

  • He's only +200 for a top 20 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 66.66%

  • Again, I'm not expecting a truly terrible performance this week out of this guy, and I generally don't mind playing bad putters, I just think it's a negative expected value play when they are highly owned. He could finish in 20th place this week, which would be a season best finish, but thats not going to win you a GPP, which is our focus here

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.1% (ownership is extremely spread out) this week....Emiliano Grillo, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from the last years CSC:

1. Rose 2. Na 3. Knox 4. Walker 5. Oosthuizen 6. Potter Jr 7. Herron 8. Niemann 9. Tway 10. Spieth 

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at BPB, (min 8 rounds)

 1. Knox 2. Rose 3. Rahm 4. Furyk 5. Swafford 6. Harman 7. CT Pan 8. Casey 9. Henry 10. Potter Jr

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

1. Fowler 2. Hossler 3. Grillo 4. Snedeker 5. Horschel 6. Schauffele 7. Tway 8. DeChambeau 9. Silverman 10. Malnati

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bent greens, difficult to hit fairways, & par 70.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Spieth 2. Rose 3. Furyk 4. Casey 5. Hoffman 6. Rahm 7. Lee 8. ZJ 9. Fowler 10. Kisner ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in Fairways Gained (which rarely test well, but does here at Colonial):

1. Reavie 2. Furyk 3. Weekley 4. Knost 5. Armour 6. Toms 7. Streelman 8. Dahmen 9. Landry 10. Taylor

(Top 10 in Fairways Gained for guys that rank in top 50% in driving distance in the field: 1. Dahmen 2. Casey 3. Ancer 4. Hickok 5. Steele 6. Hoon-Lee 7. DeChambeau 8. Oosthuizen 9. Molinari 10. Berger

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 150-175 yardage bucket, and 125-150 bucket last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Conners 2. McDowell 3. Cook 4. Gooch 5. Hoffman 6. Molinari 7. Na 8. Casey 9. Dahmen 10. Armour

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at CSC, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Streelman 2. Piercy 3. Dahmen 4. Furyk 5. Stuard 6. Schauffele 7. Conners 8. Weekley 9. Grillo 10. Dufner 

8.

 S

trokes gained on the par 4's rated the highest in importance at CSC so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 4s:

1. Rose 2. Rahm 3. Fowler 4. Putnam 5. Finau 6. Piercy 7. Im 8. Baddeley 9. Reavie 10. CT Pan

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Dahmen 2. Mullinax 3. Casey 4. Vegas 5. Silverman 6. Conners 7. Schenk 8. Burns 9. Streelman 10. Landry

10.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

 1. Lee 2. Na 3. Perry 4. Stroud 5. Gay 6. Crane 7. Harman 8. Cauley 9. Snedeker 10. Haas

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

'On the dance floor shorty started takin' it offTook her to the V.I.P., started breakin me offSaid she knew I was a baller by my iced out wristsI told the waiter 'Don't stop, keep bringin' the Cris'I'ma country boy like to Duke of HazardSee a fine chick, you know I'm gon' grab her!' -Patrick P. Perry (Master P)

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