The Cognizant Classic 2024 Chalk 💣

The return to the East Coast brings with it more unpredictable weather than the often calm ‘dome golf’ out West. Thursday looks to be relatively mild with sunshine and low double-digit wind gusts, but things could get interesting on Friday. It looks like there might be a wave advantage for the AM/PM guys, so be sure to take a look at the tee sheet before making your plays.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Russell Henley -130 ($10,200) vs. Cameron Young +100 ($10,700)

We start with some unusually high-priced names in the $10k range where Russell Henley and Cameron Young are suffering from the relative lack of elite star power in this week’s field. These two are both inside the top five most expensive players this week, but Henley is a significant favorite in 72-hole betting markets over Young.

Russ obviously has the course history advantage as a previous winner at PGA National back in 2014, but his recent form here is strong as well with top-25 finishes in each of his last four trips. However, it should be noted that Henley hasn’t played this event since 2021. Young on the other hand made his debut here in 2022 with a T16 and skipped the Honda last year.

Looking at ownership projections, both are expected to be popular plays this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership data available in the Discord, Henley is trending toward a chalky 18% ownership while Cam is up there too at just over 16%.

Ben An -129 ($9500) vs. Eric Cole -101 ($9900)

Moving down the price sheet slightly to the $9k range, Ben An is a big favorite over Eric Cole despite a $400 discount on DraftKings DFS pricing.

This may come as a surprise to those who remember Eric Cole’s runner-up finish here last year in his first start at PGA National, but Benny An has a longer and equally strong record here with two top-fives and four made cuts in five appearances.

Following the theme of chalk from our first matchup, both of these guys are projected to be among the top four most popular plays this week in DFS. Our Nut Hut projections have Cole behind only Rory McIlroy at nearly 21% projected ownership while Ben An isn’t far away at roughly 18%.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout -122 ($7600) vs. Jake Knapp +100 ($8400)

Lastly, let’s dive into the multitude of solid options in the $7-8k range where the sharp oddsmakers have Bez as a big favorite in a 72-hole matchup over last week’s winner and latest Golden Boy Jake Knapp.

If you somehow avoided “Knapp Time” Mania over the last few days… Jake is in fact a PGA TOUR rookie — so he has no real experience at PGA National coming into this week. Compare that to Bezuidenhout who is making his third-straight start at this event following a T45 and a T25 in his first two outings, and you’ll see there’s an obvious experience edge to the South African.

Despite the big win last week, or maybe because of it, the public seems to be fading Knapp this time around. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, Knapp is a true pivot play at under 5% while Bezuidenhout is much more popular at just over 13% owned.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Shoutout to Thomas Detry for delivering yet another Chalk Bomb W last week with a missed cut at the Mexico Open. I gotta be honest, it feels a little dirty to be rooting so hard for a guy to play badly. But my message to Thomas or any past, present or future players who have the distinction of being named the Chalk Bomb for any given week is this: I don’t take pleasure in you sucking, it’s being right about you sucking that does it for me. Hope that clears things up.

So now we try to stay hot as we move into the Florida Swing with the tournament formerly known as the Honda Classic. This trip to PGA National features a much stronger field than last week in Mexico — but still weak enough such that a few unlikely names make up the eligible list of potential Chalk Bombs (must be projected at over 15% ownership in DFS).

This week presents an interesting challenge for yours truly. I’ve tried to avoid repeat picks from previous events earlier this year, but that might be tough to do this week as three of the seven eligible players according to our Nut Hut ownership projections have already been featured as a Chalk Bomb this season. So who will it be this time?

We start, as we often do, with our analysts at Bet the Number and their course and field-specific models. They’ve identified PGA National as a challenging layout with plenty of trouble on approach that puts a premium on iron play and skill with the flat stick on these Bermuda greens.

Those are not particular areas of strength for this week’s Chalk Bomb. According to the BTN model, this player ranks 62nd in the field in SG: APP over his last 30 rounds and 96th in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. Taking a closer look at the important putting numbers for this week, PGA National presents an above-average amount of four to 10 footers, and the Chalk Bomb ranks outside the top 50 in SG: Putting on Bermuda from that range.

With one of the most powerful swings on the PGA TOUR, this player’s main advantage is length off the tee. But on a course where there are only eight or so driver holes and water lurking in many places as well, his distance advantage with the big stick is less of a factor than at other venues.

Another thing working against this big-name player is the variance we typically see at PGA National. Per DB’s DFS research in the Discord, of the 24 players that finished T20 or better in the 2023 Honda Classic, 10 did not have a T25 finish in the previous five events and nine didn’t have a T25 in the previous five years at PGA National.

So while this guy has been pretty solid both as of late (back-to-back top-16 finishes) and has a decent record here, (finished T16 in 2022) it might not be wise to expect this form to continue.

Lastly, the sharp bookmakers seem to be against the Chalk Bomb as well. Compared to other similarly-priced players in DraftKings DFS, this player is a +100 underdog to a -130 Russell Henley in the 72-hole head-to-head betting market. As the second-most expensive player in the field with a projected ownership of 16.32%, I’m ready to fade this guy….again.

So for the second time this year, Cameron Young, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I don’t understand what’s wrong with CrossFit person. It’s literally impossible for them to not tell you they do CrossFit. I mean, you do a workout and stuff. It’s not like you’re doing something incredible or interesting like being an astronaut. I don’t even know about any of the exercise stuff you’re trying to brag to me about anyway.

Coupon people crack me up and annoy me at the same time. I mean, I get we all want to save a few dollars any chance we get. But coupon people have zero shame in holding up an entire damn checkout line if that little piece of paper isn’t registering for their 50 cents off on some damn toothpaste or something.

Let’s talk about self check out lines. What a disaster. You can really learn a lot about people though watching them trying to navigate a self check out line. If I were hiring people for a job, after the interview I would take them to a grocery store, throw a bunch of crap in their cart, and then just see how they operated in the self check out line. It’s literally a built in test of efficiency, common sense, and the ability to adapt in a fast paced environment.

It’s a real shame that Leap Day (Feb. 29th) isn’t some sort of major holiday. It only happens every 4 years. We can’t celebrate that in some way or come up with an excuse to make it special? Maybe we could invent a Leap Day Frog. That special frog leaps around to everyones house in All the World and brings gifts of Vodka, Bourbon and Cigars. Then we drink and smoke and cook special meals on Leap Day. Just an idea I had. I need to think it thru some more but open to suggestions.

Alright, that’s all I got this week. Enjoy the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches or whatever. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!