This Week's Tour Stop Houston Open 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.As of Wednesday afternoon, the weather on Jeju Island looks to be similar to last year when Brooks won at -18. Sustained winds around 8-12mph most of the tournament with it getting a little gusty on Friday morning. But, most of our friends on the PGA Tour would tell you that 10mph doesn't impact a TURE pro too much. Plus, tee times all four days only take 2 hours to get through with a 78 man field, so you don't really have tee time wave advantages. For that reason, I'm not all that interested in betting First Round Leader bets this week. We lose a little edge. I'd rather spread my investment out over more outright tickets. I still believe a scoring fest like this has a greater potential for any name to come up and win (not just the favorites). Last year, Ryan Palmer nearly beat Brooks in identical conditions. He was over 100/1 to win. 

Through 5 Weeks: Spent $250 / Won $750 / Up 50 units

Outright WinnerWolff (40/1)_$8, Frittelli (60/1)_$8, Conners (60/1)_$8, Palmer (100/1)_$5, HV3 (100/1)_$7, Mitchell (150/1)_$5, Vegas (160/1)_$3, Clark (200/1)_$3

In a 78 man field event with only 50 having a real shot at winning...why not have greater exposure to the guys in the mid range and long shots that are proven winners? I want the bombers. I want the scorers. I want guys that are proven winners. Everyone on this list has won on the PGA Tour except for HV3 (but won the Australian PGA) and Clark...Dear God Clark...Palmer shot a 62 on Sunday here last season, and has played well. All of these guys have played in a swing season event, and we've seen something from them. Even Keith Mitchell, who missed the cut at his first event since the playoffs, was just shaking the rust off at The Shriners. The shortest hitter in this bunch may be Conners and he still moves it out there past 3 bills. If I had to go shorter on the odds...I'd go with RCB or Im in the 20-28/1 range. I just don't think we see another winner here at shorter than 20/1 this week. 

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Cam Smith - $9,000 – Cam has been very solid lately with a T13 at the Shriners and a T24 at the Greenbrier to go along with a disappointing missed cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship. I think despite that and at this price he will be overlooked this week and should be a good ownership leverage play in your DraftKings tournament lineups. Smith has played incredibly well the two years they have played this tournament at Nine Bridges finishing 3rd in 2017 with very windy conditions, and then followed that up last year with a T7 in ideal conditions where scoring was much better. So he’s obviously proved that he plays the course well despite the conditions. Cam is also checking boxes in Par 5 Scoring, Opportunities Gained, and hit’s it plenty long to take advantage of what this course gives you on the par 5’s and with 2 driveable par 4’s. Tyrrell Hatton - $8,200 – The Hat was not mentioned at all during the show Monday night but as I’ve looked deeper into the field and ownerships percentage projections, Tyrrell looks to be a good pivot move in tournaments off some of these guys in the 8k range like Niemann, Reavie and Wolff (who I do like but will be much higher owned). Hatton has played well recently on the European tour with 3 finishes inside the top 20 in his last 4 starts and he also played solid here last year with a T14 finish. As far as stats, he checks out in Strokes Gained off the Tee and Approach, but has also historically putted well on bentgrass greens ranking in the top 30 in the field in Strokes Gained putting on bent when you look at his last 100 rounds. Only thing to be wary of is if his fiancé is lurking around distracting him on every hole (check twitter if you haven’t seen this clip yet, funny stuff from last weeks Euro event). Jazz Janewattananond - $7,000 – Ok I gotta admit one of the reasons I’m taking Jazz here is I just love his name but absolutely no one will be on this guy even in a short field event and he’s shown that he can play with the big boys at times. For instance, we saw him finish in the top 15 at the PGA Championship earlier this year in what was obviously a stacked field. Jazz plays almost exclusively Asian tour events right now and has several wins including a win at the Kolon Korean open this year in June. Now, let’s not go too crazy here folks throwing him in a large percentage of your lineups, but with a guaranteed 4 rounds and ownership levels of around 2%, I think you give it a shot. If anything it will be a new name to follow and he may just shock the world! Bome! 

 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

With Halloween around the corner...I’m curious what costume our CB readers would recommend for DB and myself? Reply with your response or tweet us @tour_junkiesLet me tell you something, if you have kids who like to play with LEGO’s, make sure those things are kept in some sort of organizer at all times and NEVER let them touch the ground. Stepping on one of those death traps with bare feet is perhaps the most excruciating pain outside of a kick in the nuts. I still have an internal brief excitement to check my mailbox when I get home for the day but I have no f’in clue why. 90% of the time it’s junk mail and bills. I mean, it’s not like I’m getting some sort of pen pal letter, card with money in it from my grandparents, or the latest CD from Columbia House anymore but I still look forward to checking it regardless. So I just got off the phone with DB. He calls multiple times a day discussing random business stuff that literally goes in one ear and out the other. I can tell you though that based off today’s call, during which I was a little more attentive than usual, I think there are some really good things happening in the future for TJ. Or maybe not at all, but it sounded pretty cool. Alright folks! I’m out! Good luck this week for the CJ Cup @ 9/8 Bridges. Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years last 50 rounds:

1. JT 2. Matsuyama 3. Hovland 4. Fleetwood 5. Conners 6. Koepka 7. Morikawa 8. Niemann 9. Ben An 10. Grillo

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at 9 Bridges (min 8 rounds): 

1. RCB 2. Grace 3. Willett 4. HV3 5. Smith 6. Palmer 7. Putnam 8. Woodland 9. Koepka 10. Reavie

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1. Na 2. Spieth 3. W. Kim 4. Horschel 5. Clark 6. Leishman 7. Putnam 8. Day 9. Jones 10. McDowell

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of less than 7200 yards, bent greens, and easy to hit fairways...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.Day 2. Matsuyama 3. Smith 4. RCB 5. Leishman 6. Perez 7. Moore 8. Taylor 9. Palmer 10. Schenk

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairways that are 7200 yards or less your top 10 are:

1. Palmer 2. Reavie 3. Hovland 4. Moore 5. Glover 6. Conners 7. Woodland 8. Taylor 9. Niemann 10. Koepka

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Hovland 2. Conners 3. Stuard 4. Grillo 5. Hadley 6. Jones 7. Vegas 8. JT 9. Niemann 10. Long

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Nine Bridges, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. Jones 3. Garcia 4. Clark 5. Vegas 6. Im 7. Wolff 8. Matsuyama 9. Poulter 10. Niemann

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Dahmen 2. Hovland 3. HV3 4. Stuard 5. CT Pan 6. Taylor 7. Woodland 8. Koepka 9. Poulter 10. Sabbatini

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Grillo 2. Hovland 3. Stuard 4. Smith 5. Long 6. Reavie 7. Niemann 8. Wolff 9. Koepka 10. List

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Mickelson 2. Palmer 3. List 4. Si Woo 5. CH3 6. Poulter 7. Jones 8. Moore 9. Day 10. HV3

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

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