CJ Cup 21 Chalk Bomb

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With a short field, we typically don't see much of a wave advantage. With the current forecast here on Wednesday late morning, it appears there's no real wind advantage in Vegas. Friday looks to certainly be windier, but it appears that way for virtually every player in the field. At this point, we don't see any reason to stack certain tee times or value one player over another based on weather.  

JT -144 vs. Memberkawa +123

Fun fact: Did you know Collin Morikawa is a member at The Summit Club! Yea! Also, fun fact: did you know the books have him as dog in 3 of 5 H2H matchups. He's a massive dog to DJ, Xander and JT. He opened as a dog to Rory, but the line has moved him to a slight favorite. Spieth is the only guy the books seem confident Morikawa can beat. 

SPOILER: More on Morikawa below

But the bottom line here is...the member angle could be way overblown, his form isn't great, you can't read too much into the Ryder Cup performance, and he seems a better fit for a tournament where you don't have to shoot -25 to win. I think he's actually intriguing as a massive underdog in some of these matchups, or maybe a Top 10 bet, but I'm fading in GPPs. Who's WITH ME!?

Hovland -123 vs. Finau +105

As discussed on the podcast, Hovland's T44 last week is somewhat deceiving. The guy gained nearly 11 shots OTT & APP while losing over 8 ATG! 8! That's even crazy for him. That's like chipping yips crazy. His ball striking is peaking, he's been playing since the Ryder Cup, and he's hungry for that first BIG win outside of those 2 weak field hits he had earlier. He's an elite player ready to break out. The books believe it too as he's the H2H favorite in all 5 of his posted matchups against Finau, Sungjae, Burns, Brooks and even Louie. He's the costlier option of those 5 on DK, but they're all there together. His ownership projections to this point are around 18%. He's chalk I'm willing to eat, and I'd take him H2H over Finau, Sungjae and Brooks without hesitation. This ball striking, birdie fest sets up perfect for a guy with his game in his ball striking form.

McNealy -124 vs. HV3 +106

Apparently, the books don't believe in the Nappy Factor as HV3 is a big dog to the OTHER member of TSC, in Mav McNealy. In fact, Mav is a favorite in his only other H2H (Noren). And, HV3 is also a dog to Noren. I like the value McNealy presents in DFS. He's only $7.3K. He literally checks every box I'm looking at. He's a great putter that had an off week at The Shriners in losing 2.3 strokes. He lost more strokes than that only 5 times all of last season. His ball striking remains solid, and he's got the local knowledge without the same local pressure as maybe Morikawa will have. McNealy is the course record holder here with a 61. He's got 11 Top 25s in his last 26 events including two runner ups and a T4! Top 25 in nearly half his events! And Pat keeps asking me why I keep playing the guy! Even in this stacked field, he's 22nd in DK Scoring over the last 24 rounds. I'm buying Mav no matter the ownership in DK, and the books are buying as well it seems.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

After a solid start the first 2 events of the season, last week's CB nearly won the damn thing...oh well, I'm feelin extra frisky today fam!That's right! I'm picking Collin "Memberkawa" as the bomb this week! These nuts be draggin boo boo! I made the case on the podcast, but since his Open Championship win...he hasn't been near as solid as he was prior to winning when you could see the domination coming. Since The Open he's lost over 4 strokes OTT, lost 1 in APP and he's continued to putt like shit losing 14 strokes putting in his last 4 events! Now, I understand he looked ok at The Ryder Cup, but he played a couple of times with DJ (who was on fire), and match play is not the same...it's a totally different approach for these guys. So for all purposes, he arrives this week nearly 6 weeks after playing his last stroke play event where he finished 26th...out of 30 at East Lake.Given the odds of this event getting to a winning score between -25 and maybe even -30, I'd prefer someone arriving in much better, birdie making form and for way less salary + ownership. At $10.8K, he's the 3rd most expensive golfer and he's the 2nd highest projected owned. He needs to finish in the top 5 or 6 in terms of DK scoring to meet his expected value in my mind.I don't care that he's a member and has a round of 62 on record here. Is there a slight advantage to that...? Yes. But, when -25 is gonna get it done...that advantage is muted somewhat. And we've talked to enough Tour pros over the years to know that "home field advantage" isn't always a given on the PGA TOUR with the demands on a player when he's at home.Finally, one of our more trusted sportsbooks has Memberkawa an underdog in 4 of his 5 H2Hs this week. And...the 1 that he isn't a dog in currently, he was when the line opened! We're trying to finish in the top 1-3% of a GPP with this call...sack up or go heavier than field average on the short hitting, potentially rusty FORMER course record holder at The Summit Club. At 22% (2nd highest) projected ownership, Collin Memberkawa...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

As we move into the season of Halloween and the fall, I have something that needs to be said. Candy Apples are the worst. How can anyone even like this god awful creation? It’s pretty much impossible to eat a candy apple whole and not look like an idiot doing so. On top of that it’s just a dumb idea. Screw candy apples.Speaking of Halloween. The day of Halloween is October 31st. That’s it. There’s no debate. Why do people with authority try and tell you when you can do some Halloweening. Locally our mayor says trick or treating will be on the 30th because it’s a Saturday. WTF. You can’t tell me when I can do Halloween just because you don’t like what day the 31st falls on or it’s a "school night." Get out of here with that BS.I have a post-it note reminder that’s been on my desk for over a year. Now, the reminder is inconsequential in this matter, but, it did make me wonder what the world record could be for the single longest standing post-it note reminder that has remained on someone’s office desk. My guess would be somewhere around 3 years. That said I’m throwing this reminder away. I can’t stand looking at it anymore.Why does it seem like every damn store receipt has a tip line on it now? I mean look, I'm all for tipping for good service, but it's getting out of hand in this country if you ask me. Every time I go to sign a receipt somebody new sneaks a tip request line in there. It's ridiculous.  Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the CJ Cup at The Summit Club in Las Vegas. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome! 

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