Week II in Vegas

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

New Course Week! And what a course it is. The opener will obviously be devoid of stats so it'll be shorter than normal, but I've managed to dig up a couple of nuggets for you degens. You've probably heard the 'Augusta' comp by now, but I don't think that's just lip service. Tom Fazio literally used it as his template, creating a beautiful mix of risk/reward holes, bent grass greens with tons of slope, and lots of strategic bunkers & water hazards. Funny enough, when I built my very simple course fit model for the 10 facts, Augusta came up as one of the fits (as did Houston, Medinah, Quail Hallow, & TPC San Antonio). Charlie Hoffman actually caddied at Shadow Creek as a college student and mostly confirmed the above that 'if it's calm you can score because of the risk and reward nature of it.' Speaking of weather it looks great all week, there might be a little wind on Thursday/Friday (9-10mph), but not enough currently to give any wave edge. For the winning score, I would project somewhere between 16-20 under par which would qualify as an 'average' difficultly course. 

(Imagine from DataGolf) I went ahead & threw in the Augusta course fit because again, I do think it sets up very similar. The part that everyone gets wrong about Augusta is that it's really a GIR course...it's all about hitting the right part of the green to give you those uphill putts. So while distance always matters (because the closer to the hole you are the tighter your proximity radius is), it really just comes down to precision iron control.  

Leh Go!

HOLISTIK Wellness CBD STIK's are 25% OFF with Promo Code "TJ25"CBD Wellness STIK's you mix in ANY drink for SLEEP, STRESS, RECOVERY, DIGESTION & BEAUTY!Click HERE & Support the Tour Junkies & get that CBD hitter!

MATCHUP 1

Hatton vs. Berger

Hatton -116 vs. Berger -101

Not really a surprising head to head price between Hatton & Berger, but I think both are at an interesting price point. Kind of like the last 2 weeks, the guys directly above them are going to soak up a lot of ownership and leave these two relatively low owned. Both guys were on fire most of the year, but have cooled recently with neither one having a top 10 in a full field event since August & July respectively. I like Berger quite a bit as far as the head to head price simply because he's nowhere near as volatile as Hatton & has a higher floor. When you look at Hatton's tee to green history this season, it's almost like random numbers on a roulette board. Dating back to last year's British he's gained over 10 strokes 3 times, gained 3.5 strokes or less 6 times, & lost strokes twice, with only 2 events together that are mildly similar in performance. Berger on the other hand has gained at least 5 strokes tee to green in 9 of 14 events, & had a stretch of 8 events where he gained at least 5.5 strokes T2G in 7 of them. The only real concern I have for Berger is that he's lost strokes off the tee his last two events, something he hadn't done one single time in 2020 until the Tour Championship. But if we think this is going to play like Augusta, he's certainly had some very nice rounds there. 

MATCHUP 2

Schauffele vs. Wolff

Schauffele -147 vs. Wolff +126

As someone who was a Wolff hater for most of the 2020 season, I think I've finally come full circle and now think that he's probably underrated. Just consider for a second that he's just a handful of shots from being both the reigning PGA Champ, US Open Champ, & Shriners Champ, all in a 2-month time span. When you look through all his strokes gained data this year, he was an absolute mess with both his irons & his around the green game. From 1/5/20-6/28/20 (10 events) Wolff lost shots in either approach play or around the green in every single event, and in 6 of those 10, he lost strokes in both! But whatever GG Swing Tips had him working on sure clicked. He's gained strokes on approach shots in 7 of his last 8, & is currently riding a 4 event streak of gaining strokes around the green. Looking to Xander it's almost the exact opposite for his recent form. When he's playing his best golf he's one of the best total drivers of the golf ball in the world...it's not uncommon for him to gain 4+ strokes in 1 event. But starting with the St. Jude (which he still finished 6th at) his ball-striking numbers really took quite the downturn. Over his last 6 events, he's gained a TOTAL of 12 strokes ball striking (for a reference point Wolff has gained 17.6 in just his last TWO events), and even so, Xander has managed to finish in the top 5 his last 2 starts because he's gained 13.2 strokes putting. 

MATCHUP 3

McIIroy vs. Thomas

McIIroy -101 vs. Thomas -116

Basically, all of these top-tiered guys have some kind of hole in their game that they're currently working on. Lets start with Rory: His driver has been pretty consistently elite all season, it's the other 3 phases of his game that have been all over the place. Since the restart, Rory has averaged +0.8 strokes on approach shots, that's less than 50% of what he has historically gained for his career. Rory (for his career) is also elite around the greens, but again since the restart, he's averaged -0.1 strokes. Then there's the putter, for his career he's slightly gained strokes, but in all of 2020, he's lost strokes putting more often than he's gained strokes. However, at the US Open, something seemed to click, as he gained strokes across the board for the 1st time since the WGC-Mexico. If you look at the 10 facts this week, you'll see in both of my super simple course fit rankings Rory is #1 & #2, as well as ranking #8 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds. For JT: The putter has consistently been the biggest bugaboo for him really the last 18 months. His putting performance swings starting w/ the RBC are: +2.8, (-5.4), +3.1, +2.6, (-1.9), (-3.5), (-4), +0.7, (-3.2), +4.7...yea, all over the place & good luck trying to predict it. 

Other interesting lines:Wolff -106 vs. Cantlay -110Fleetwood -108 vs. Hovland -108Matsuyama -114 vs. Morikawa -102Im -115 vs. Fitz -101Fowler -133 vs. Woodland +114 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• Over his last 8 events, he's lost strokes tee to green in 5! of them

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events

• For his career, he's lost strokes around the green and has continued to do so in 8 of his last 15 events

• Over his last 12 events, he's lost strokes putting in 8 of them

• Over his last 2 events he's gained 9.3 strokes putting, the most he's ever gained in a 2 event stretch 

• Even in this limited field, his top 10 odds are 14.9%

• He loses strokes against his T2G baseline on courses over 7400

• He loses total strokes against his baseline on par 72's

• Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks in the bottom half of the field in DK points scored

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 57th (out of 78) in Opps Gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 46th in the field in GIR's gained

At 16.1% Calculated Ownership on Fantasy National (6th highest, though have seen him as high as 3rd elsewhere), Joaquin Niemann, your the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I don't know who else may do this but why do I press harder on a TV remote when it's obvious the batteries may be dead?

If you know me you know I hate flying which leads me to this question. Why on earth are there “flotation devices” under your seat on a plane and not a parachute? I know how to swim but I sure as hell can’t fly!

Lemon flavored candy is the worst. I don’t even know why candy companies make them. Lemon Starbursts, awful…Lemon Jolly ranchers, gross…Lemon sour patch kids, throw that shit away. I seriously can’t name one lemon flavored candy that’s even tolerable.

One of the biggest lies that no one ever talks about is the “new car” scent they offer at car washes. It does not smell even remotely close to a brand-new car. Please don’t fall for this trick people. Go with the lemon scent instead. You’re welcome.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek this week in Vegas. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!