CIMB Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

CIMB Championship

Hello friends, and welcome back. Since this is the first Chalk Bomb post Ryder Cup, we have to address the elephant in the room....bro-thers Brooks & DJ apparently got into a physical altercation during the Euro victory party. Now this is the most interesting thing to come out of the American side all week since the golf they played was completely uninteresting and uninspiring. I have so many questions....was Brooks mad that the #1 player in the world went 1-4, was Brooks mad that DJ cheated on Paulina for like the 100th time, was Brooks mad that DJ skipped leg day on Wednesday, who would win in a Brooks/DJ fight, would DJ even care if Brooks was pummeling his face because he really doesn't seem to care about anything, during the fight did DJ's facial expression ever change from this:

Some of the great mysteries of our time to be sure. A couple quick notes on the course this week: 1. They changed the greens from Paspalum to Bermuda 2. This course is redic short for these guys, and even though it's a short course, bombers still get a nice boost here #DistanceAlwaysMatters 3. Ownership is everything this week...can you really trust history after the redesign & greens change? Can you trust 'recent' form when half the field hasn't played in a month? Basically the only thing you can trust is course fit, and ownership. 4. This tournament is on the other side of the world for a lot of these guys, bio metrics (specifically the circadian rhythms) will and do impact performance! Leh go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on 

mybookie

 to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting, so lets dig in!

So no real surprise here that Moore is the favorite over BHo, but I think it's interesting that he's such a large favorite. Yes, Moore does have excellent course history here, and he seems to be in good (actual) recent form. His implied odds tell us that Moore is expected to win this match up almost 60% of the time, so for similar ownership, wouldn't you rather have Moore for $200 Moore?

Just in case you were wondering, JT is a monster favorite over everyone, including the two time champ and second highest priced player in the field. Most of the time the top priced player in the field is an auto fade for me because they basically HAVE to finish top 5 to pay off their price tags. But here's a great little nugget for you, since 2016, 27 times a golfer has had odds to win equal to or higher than JT, 21 of those times said golfer finished top 9 or better...

77% THEY ARE FINISHING IN THE TOP 9!!!

I'm no rocket surgeon, but I like those odds, especially when you take into account that JT is expected to beat Ryan Moore 70% of the time head to head. 

So even though the defending champ is $1000 more expensive than the Rat, he's actually a head to head underdog. Neither one has great 'form' recently but Kiradech does have positive putting splits on bermuda as well as good course history when he doesn't withdraw. 

Woodland is $200 cheaper but he's a very slight H2H favorite over our boy Keegan this week. I was really surprised to see that Keegan has such good course history here, 3 top 10's in 4 tries. Woodland also had back to back 2nd place finishes in 13' & 14" but hasn't finished better than 28th the last 3 years. While doing some digging though we should note that Keegan appears to have found 'something' with his putting. If you look at his strokes gained putting plotted on chart it looks like this:

It looks like it's finally bottomed out since the anchoring ban which is great news for him. He's such an elite ball striker that all he has to do to compete is break even in the putting stats, but the bad news for this week is that he has the worst putting splits on bermuda :(

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THE Chalk Bomb

Gonna do a double this week since very few players are currently projected to be over 20% owned. Guy #1:-Had a price increase of 2k since his last event-His last 5 events he's lost strokes off the tee, approach, AND around the green, but because he's gained a redic 5 strokes on average putting per event his results 'appear' ok -He's the 16th highest priced player but in the last 24 rounds he ranks 54th in strokes gained tee to green, and 62nd ball striking-He's a short player (remember bomber gets the bump here), he loses strokes to the field on par 72's and amazingly he's slightly lost strokes to the field on short coursesGuy #2:-Had a price increase of $3600 since his last event-When I make a custom model that is for 1. Easy course 2. Bermuda greens 3. Less than 7200 yards this is 41st in the field in total strokes gained, AND has one of the biggest sample sizes at 26 rounds-He's a head to head underdog against similar priced players-This is projected to be his highest owned event since the last time he was the chalk bomb (& failed)Our friends over at Fansharesports.com have these guys projected at:

Billy Ho & Kevin Na your the chalk bomb! 

The Single Most Creative Thing Pat Has Ever Done

No Facts this week, trying to get this out while it still has a shelf life of 2 hours. Everyone please feel free to make this your Draftkings player profile pic, thanks! 

Win a FREE M4 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Tee To Green ($6), Albatross ($12), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar