Charles Schwab 2022 Heavy Petting

View this email in your browser

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.

• Scottie Scheffler (15%) and Billy Ho (10%) were the highest owned guys to MC last week that are back at it this week. Both could easily have success at Colonial. Could be possible pivot plays in DFS.

• We haven't had a triple digit outright win at Colonial in over 7 years

• Spieth has 9 of 9 made cuts here with 8 top 15s

• Z. Johnson holds the 72 hole record here at -21. Kevin Na holds the course record at 61.

• Kevin Na and Rose are on record saying this course suits a right to left ball flight given some of the doglegs and angles.

• The course can tip out at 7200 yards, but the Tour has set it up around 7000 yards on average over the last few years.

• Colonial has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA TOUR since 2015 to chip and putt

• Colonial has 9 Par 4's that play less than 450 yards and it's the main reason most approach shots fall in the 150-175 yard range.

• For PrizePicks purposes, the average # of fairways hit per round since 2015 is 8.68 & the average # of GIR per round is 11.86.

• DataGolf ranks players based on SG Totals VERSUS EXPECTATION at a given course. It's a good indicator and reference to find guys that really click at a given course. Here are your top 10 at Colonial VS expectation (min 12 rds). Spieth, McNealy, D. Lee, Kisner, Na, Harman, Pan, Putnam, Finau, Grillo

• Here are your bottom 10 SG VS Expectation (min 12 rds); Hossler, Schenk, Watney, Tringale, Fowler, Ortiz, Stallings, Jones, N. Taylor, Villegas

• DataGolf ranks Colonial in the top 20% for courses where course history has predictive value. The following notable names make their Charles Schwab debut this week: Tommy Lad, Mito, Riley, Rai, Herbert, Lipsky.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Charles Schwab: 1. Kokrak 2. Finau 3. Kizzire 4. Morikawa 5. Hoffman 6. Na 7. Ortiz 8. Poulter 9. Lashley 10. Harman2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bent grass: 1. Bez 2. Kokrak 3. Poulter 4. Ancer 5. Tringale 6. Reed 7. Harman 8. Herbert 9. Merritt 10. Na3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Spieth 2. Kirk 3. Homa 4. JT 5. Pereira 6. Hovland 7. Zalatoris 8. HV3 9. Hoge 10. CT Pan4. On courses <7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways & bent greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained: 1. Finau 2. Fowler 3. Spieth 4. JT 5. Morikawa 6. Na 7. Rose 8. Hoffman 9. Snedeker 10. Fleetwood5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses < 7400 yards, windy conditions, & difficult to hit fairways: 1. Berger 2. Morikawa 3. JT 4. DeChambeau 5. Finau 6. Watson 7. Knox 8. Piercy 9. Simpson 10. Scheffler6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Scheffler 2. JT 3. DeChambeau 4. Hovland 5. Riley 6. HV3 7. Burns 8. McNealy 9. Lee 10. Homa7. Top 10 in GIR's gained at Colonial (min 8 rd): 1. Harman 2. Knox 3. Hoffman 4. DeChambeau 5. Rose 6. Grillo 7. Reavie 8. Kokrak 9. Finau 10. Na8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1. Pereira 2. Smalley 3. Morikawa 4. Finau 5. Zalatoris 6. Munoz 7. Kitayama 8. Scheffler 9. Spaun 10. Fleetwood9. The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 150-175, your top 10 in proximity: 1. JT 2. Na 3. Hovland 4. Hodges 5. Finau 6. Morikawa 7. Bez 8. Grillo 9. Ryder 10. Pereira10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Kirk 2. HV3 3. JT 4. Na 5. Hoge 6. Im 7. Ghim 8. Harman 9. Munoz 10. McNealy

We're going all or nothing here with a 5x Power Play on 3 lines. I'm bullish on Tommy Lad and Gooch for the entire week, but like all 3 guys since they're getting out in the early part of Thursday morning before the wind really kicks up starting around noon.The par 5 first hole is one of the most birdied par 5s all season, so it should be a free square in the birdie department for the early guys.The average number of fairways hit in a given round at Colonial since 2015 is 8.68. Tommy Lad gets it in very favorable conditions going off in the first group, plus he's been striping it lately so I suspect he'll come in above the average. Going big or going home here fam! Let's get it!

Fade Away

> 3 Names to Fade in DFS

> DB opens up Fantasy National Model and Attempts to Justify the Fades

 H2H Lines & How They Could Help with DFS > DB analyzes the H2H Matchup lines & looks at early chalk reports in DFS